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Mauritius Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 29 pages

Core Views


The outlook for economic growth in Mauritius is far more precariousthan it was three months ago, and in the wake of the UK’s decisionto leave the EU (Brexit), we now anticipate that real GDP growth willcome in at just 3.2% in 2017, compared to our previous projectionof 4.2%. The island nation is heavily exposed to both the UK andthe EU, where we also expect that post-Brexit turmoil will result inslower growth.Mauritius will see only a slight reduction in its budget deficit overthe next several years. We expect that the government will seek tosupport the central bank’s accommodative monetary policy throughgrowth-generating spending. Even so, this will be limited by lacklustrerevenue collection growth and concerns over increasing the debtburden.The Mauritian rate-cutting cycle has further to go before the end of2016. The Brexit vote will further jeopardise already weak demand,prompting the bank to seek to stimulate the economy.We expect that Mauritius and the five partner states of the EastAfrican Community (EAC) will pursue greater political and economicties over the coming years, especially in the wake of the island state’srenegotiation of its trade deal with India. This will mean that thecountry will skew more towards Sub-Saharan Africa as it looks forgrowth markets to offset the likely loss of business and investmentfrom India.

Table Of Contents

Mauritius Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Brexit Vote Will See Growth Slow In 20178
Mauritian real GDP growth will slow over the next 12 months as the UK's decision to leave the EU weighs on exports and investment.
Accommodative monetary policy and government investment will prevent any major decline in economic activity.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS..9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook . 10
Government Spending Will Support Central Bank's Accommodative Stance10
Mauritius will see only a slight reduction in its budget deficit over the next several years. We expect that the government will seek
to support the central bank's accommodative monetary policy through growth-generating spending. Even so, this will be limited by
lacklustre revenue collection growth and concerns over increasing the debt burden.
Structural Fiscal Position ... 11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE and EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES..12
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS...12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 13
Exports Will Be Hit By Slower UK Growth..13
The negative impact of the Brexit vote on Mauritian exports will result in the current account deficit widening in 2017, contrary to our
previous expectation that it would narrow. Imports will slow in 2017 as new economic realities take hold.
Outlook On External Position.. 14
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS...14
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS 2014.15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 201515
Monetary Policy 15
Brexit Vote Will Mean Further Rate Cut...15
The Mauritian rate-cutting cycle has further to go before the end of 2016. The Brexit vote will further jeopardise already weak demand,
prompting the bank to seek to stimulate the economy.
Monetary Policy Framework ... 16
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS.. 17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast... 19
The Mauritian Economy To 2025 19
Service Industries To Drive Long-Term Growth.19
Real GDP growth in Mauritius will be driven by the development of service industries over the coming decade. This will be powered by
government investment into the key sectors of tourism, medical tourism, education, banking, and shipping services.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 23
SWOT Analysis. 23
BMI Political Risk Index... 23
Domestic Politics 24
Closer Relations With EAC Will Follow Indian Tax Negotiations.24
In the wake of the renegotiation of its long-standing tax agreement with India, we expect that Mauritius will skew further towards Sub-
Saharan Africa in seeking trade deals. We identify the five states of the East African Community as the countries Mauritius is most likely
to become closer to.
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 25
Global Macro Outlook.. 25
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.25
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..25
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 26
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %... 27
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..29

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