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Netherlands Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 21 pages

Core Views

Continued high support for the Nationalist party of Geert Wilders poses a threat to the established political parties in the upcoming elections. The result of the EU referendum vote in the United Kingdom will strengthen calls for a similar vote on the Netherlands. This may be a point of contention in the formation of any coalition involving the Party of Freedom (PVV), which is likely to be among the top two largest parties. The Netherlands' economic growth is likely to slow as exports suffer from the impact of Brexit owing to the highly externally oriented nature of the economy. This export reliance leaves the economy at risk from the potential for further shocks to EU integration. We have downgraded the Netherlands' real GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.0%. Major Forecast Changes We have downgrade the Netherlands' 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.0%, and also downgraded 2017 growth to 1.8% from 2.0%. Despite the recent acceleration in growth, Brexit poses a significant risk to the Netherlands' exports, and will also raise uncertainty over the future of the EU.

Table Of Contents

Netherlands Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................. 5
Core Views.......................................................................................................................................................................................5
Major Forecast Changes.................................................................................................................................................................5
Key Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.................................................................................................................. 7
SWOT Analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.......................................................................................................................................... 7
Economic Growth Outlook........................................................................................................................................ 8
Export Reliance To Prove Problematic.........................................................................................................................................8
The Netherlands' economic growth is likely to slow as exports suffer from the impact of Brexit, owing to the externally oriented nature
of the economy. This export reliance leaves the economy at risk from the potential for further shocks to EU integration. We have
downgraded the Netherlands' real GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.0
%Chapter 2: Political Outlook................................................................................................................... 11
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 11
BMI Political Risk Index........................................................................................................................................... 11
Domestic Politics..................................................................................................................................................... 12
Orthodoxy To Be Increasingly Challenged.................................................................................................................................12
Continued high support for Geert Wilders' nationalist Party for Freedom poses a threat to the established political parties in the
upcoming elections. The result of the EU referendum vote in the United Kingdom will strengthen calls for a similar vote in the
Netherlands. This may be a point of contention in the formation of any coalition involving the PVV, which is likely to be among the top
two largest parties.
Chapter 3: Operational Risk................................................................................................................... 15
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 15
Operational Risk Index............................................................................................................................................ 15
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook................................................................................................... 17
Global Macro Outlook.............................................................................................................................................. 17
EMs Past The Worst, But Structural Problems Persist.............................................................................................................17
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..........................................................................................................................................................................17
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - REAL GDP GROWTH, %..................................................................................................................................18
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, %.................................................................................................................................19
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..............................................................................................................................................21

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