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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Core Views

Sudan will see weak growth this year and next. Declining oil productionin South Sudan and weakened consumer spending power willmitigate economic activity in the short term, whilst sanctions willrestrain investment in the longer term.South Sudan will remain vulnerable to significant political unrestover the coming months, after a recent outburst of violence in thecapital Juba has tipped the country perilously close to returningto civil war. On July 7, members of the Sudan People’s LiberationArmy/Movement (loyal to President Salva Kiir) and Vice PresidentRiek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Oppositionclashed in Juba.Economic conditions in South Sudan will be extremely challengingin 2016 and 2017, as falling oil production hits exports hard andhyperinflation suppresses consumer purchasing power. The reignitionof political conflict will serve to worsen their woes, disruptingeconomic activity.

Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our real GDP Growth forecast for South Sudanto a contraction of 5.8%, down from a contraction of 2.7% on theback of increased political instability and hyperinflation.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes:...5
Key Risks:5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook ... 8
High Inflation And Hostile Business Environment Will Inhibit Growth..8
Sudan will see weak growth this year and next. Declining oil production in South Sudan and weakened consumer spending power will
mitigate economic activity in the short term, whilst sanctions will restrain investment in the longer term.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: SUDAN GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: SUDAN PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS .9
TABLE: SUDAN GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: SUDAN FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS.10
TABLE: SUDAN NET EXPORTS FORECASTS..10
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook... 11
Conflict And Weak Oil Production Will Stunt Economic Activity.11
Economic conditions in South Sudan will be extremely challenging in 2016 and 2017, as falling oil production hits exports hard and
hyperinflation suppresses consumer purchasing power. The re-ignition of political conflict will serve to worsen their woes, disrupting
economic activity.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook.. 12
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN GDP GROWTH FORECASTS.12
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...12
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS13
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS...13
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN NET EXPORTS FORECASTS.13
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast... 15
The Sudanese Economy To 2025... 15
A Potential Unrealised..15
The South Sudanese economy has significant potential due to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land,
and proposed integration with East African nations. However, it faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security
concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit, and a lack of human or physical
capital.
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS..15
The South Sudanese Economy To 2025 16
Subdued Long-Term Growth Outlook.16
Sudan faces persistent sluggish growth in the years ahead. Structural obstacles following the secession of South Sudan coupled with
the impact of Western-led economic sanctions will keep growth well below capacity.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 19
SWOT Analysis. 19
BMI Political Risk Index... 19
Sudan Domestic Politics. 20
Darfur Referendum Outcome Continues To Undermine Peace Prospects.20
Sudan's recently-held referendum on whether Darfur should remain split into five states, or else become an autonomous region, will do
little to placate opposition forces, undermining prospects for peace in the country. This will mean that attacks in the Darfur region will
likely escalate and that Western sanctions on Sudan will not be lifted, weighing on the country's economic prospects.
South Sudan Domestic Politics.. 21
Political Stability Will Remain Tenuous After Violent Clashes.21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk... 23
SWOT Analysis. 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk .. 24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK.24
Market Size And Utilities . 25
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK26
Labour Costs ... 28
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE... 29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 31
Global Macro Outlook.. 31
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...33
TABLE: SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.35
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS35

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