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Sudan and South Sudan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Economic and political challenges will continue to undermine growth within Sudan and SouthSudan's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. As such, political instability will remain a barrier to anysignificant investment in the sector, whilst disagreements about oil revenue sharing will affect bothgovernments' abilities to fund new healthcare infrastructure projects. The governments' plans to improvedomestic pharmaceutical manufacturer capabilities will attempt to reduce ongoing medicine shortages,however we do not expect self-sufficiency to be achieved over the short-to-medium term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: SDG3.00bn (USD500mn) in 2015 to SDG3.30bn (USD500mn) in 2016; +10.0% inlocal currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q316.

- Healthcare: SDG32.73bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to SDG36.43bn (USD5.52bn) in 2016; +11.3% in localcurrency terms and +0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q316.Risk/Reward IndexIn our Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, Sudan maintains its score of 31.4 out of 100 and asserts itsposition in 24th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa region. Regionally,however, the country scores below average for all indicators under both industry and country risks andrewards, which is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.Sanctions will present long-term headwinds to economic growth, holding back investment and directinvestment opportunities for western multinational drugmakers.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: HEADLINE PHARMACEUTICALS and HEALTHCARE FORECASTS (SUDAN 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2020) 15
Healthcare Market Forecast 15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2020) 18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2020) 18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2020) 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016 19
Sudan Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Regulatory Review 29
Intellectual Property Issues 30
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 30
Market Overview 31
Healthcare Sector 32
Research and Development 34
Clinical Trials 35
Epidemiology 36
Competitive Landscape 39
Research-Based Industry 39
Table: Multinational Market Activity 41
Generic Drugmakers 42
Demographic Forecast 43
Sudan Demographic Forecast 43
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025) 44
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025) 44
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025) 45
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025) 45
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025) 46
South Sudan Demographic Forecast 48
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Sudan 1990-2025) 49
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Sudan 1990-2025) 49
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Sudan 1990-2025) 50
Table: Population By Age Group (South Sudan 1990-2025) 50
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Sudan 1990-2025) 51
Glossary 53
Methodology 55
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 55
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 55
Notes On Methodology 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Index Overview 58
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Indicator Weightings 59

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