Electric Buses 2015-2025

  • January 2015
  • -
  • IDTechEx Ltd
  • -
  • 214 pages

Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, the subject of this report, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive. In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2025. Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2014-5, this unique report is the only up to date in depth appraisal of the issues and trends including a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the greener, more efficient pure electric buses prove fit for prime time and over one quarter of one million e-buses are purchased in 2025 due to both legal push and market pull.

Forecasts are for number, unit price and market value 2015-2025 by region, powertrain and pure electric vs hybrid. Over 8t and under 8t are analysed in the 150+ pages of original summary and analysis, easily grasped by those with limited time. The information has been appraised by our PhD level analysts with long experience and an intensive program of travel to check out the facts. Worldwide, over 100 manufacturers and many recent interviews are covered including EV events in Japan, Taiwan, the USA, UK and Germany in the last few months. This is essential because the subject is moving so fast with the strong technologies, regions, manufacturers etc changing rapidly.

Table Of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Overview
1.2. Summary of technical preferences
1.3. Statistics issues
1.4. Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
1.5. Chinese price/performance
1.6. Forecast 2015-2025 with key orders, technology timelines
1.7. Electric bus >8t forecast by powertrain 2015-2025, number, unit value, market value
1.8. Forecast by territory for buses >8t for APAC, NA, Europe, other
1.9. Market forecast for electric buses 1.10. Cost trends - China ready to pounce
1.11. Market drivers and impediments
1.12. Regional differences
1.13. China, India and cities
1.14. Radical change
1.15. Truly global market for similar buses
1.16. Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
1.17. Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
1.18. Value chain and powertrain
1.19. Hybrids becoming pure electric
1.20. Relative importance of technical options
1.21. Technology disagreement
1.22. Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
1.23. Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
1.23.1. Automotive industry
1.23.2. School buses
1.23.3. Largest bus manufacturers
1.23.4. Review of 2012-2014
1.24. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Urban logistics trends
2.2. The move to electric
2.3. Motor technology by type of vehicle
2.3.1. Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology?
2.3.2. Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths
2.4. Choice of lithium-ion batteries
2.4.1. 142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes
2.5. Global situation: some recent highlights
2.5.1. Australia
2.5.2. China
2.5.3. India
2.5.4. North America
2.6. Europe
2.6.1. UK
2.6.2. Germany
2.6.3. Sweden, Switzerland
2.6.4. ABB intermittent overhead charging
2.6.5. Turkey
2.7. Asia Pacific
2.8. Latin America
2.9. Africa/Middle East
2.10. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles
2.11. Electrification
2.12. Drivers of change
3. ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA
3.1. China automotive industry
3.2. China bus market
3.2.1. China overall bus sales 2012-2014
3.2.2. China Light Bus Market 2013
3.2.3. China Medium Bus Market in 2013
3.2.4. China Large Bus Market 2013
3.3. Move to cleaner vehicles
3.4. Electric vehicle sales in China 2011-2014
3.4.1. Electric bus policy
3.5. Plug-in EV Sales in 2013
3.6. New Energy Vehicles NEV in 2014
3.7. Leapfrogging technology
3.8. IDTechEx assessment of Chinese bus technology
3.8.1. Advanced technology in latest e-buses
3.8.2. Hiccups
3.8.3. China and rare earths
3.9. Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled
3.10. Chinese bus company and regional news 2014-5
3.10.1. BYD
3.10.2. BYD bus progress and plans
3.10.3. 5th New Energy Vehicle Exhibition Beijing Nov 2014
4. SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
4.1. Overview
4.2. Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location
4.3. 86 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment.
5. SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
5.1. Overview
5.2. Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location
5.3. 80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment
5.4. Kalsruhe Assessment of E-Buses in 2015
6. FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS
6.1. Technology
6.2. Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed
6.3. Reasons for failure to launch
6.4. Third decade of trials
6.5. Ballard Pyrrhic victory
6.6. Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses
6.7. New competitor
6.8. Window of opportunity closing
6.9. Catalog of shortcomings
6.10. Advances
6.11. Ballard approach
6.12. Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts
6.13. Program slippage
6.14. US Targets
6.15. US evaluations
6.16. Key observation
6.17. Daimler program today
6.18. Justified scepticism
6.19. Hyundai progress
6.20. Window of opportunity is closing
6.21. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015
6.22. Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015
6.23. Commitment in Europe
6.24. Commitment in the USA
6.24.1. Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US
6.25. Commitment in China
7. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS
7.1. Aleees Taiwan
7.2. Ebusco Netherlands
7.3. Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA
7.4. Green GT France
7.5. ITRI Taiwan
7.6. Hyundai Korea
7.7. IFEVS Italy
7.8. Nippon ChemiCon Japan
7.9. Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan

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