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Montenegro Country Report - February, 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of February 6-March 5, 2016.

Nato's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said that Montenegro should continue making reforms, focusing on corruption and rule of law, in order to join the alliance. Nato launched on February 15 two-day accession talks with Montenegro after inviting the country to join the alliance in early December.

Montenegrin political parties failed to reach an acceptable consensus on the participation of the opposition in the government as the Prime Minister, Milo Djukanovic, refused the requests for more control over the state broadcaster RTCG and the parliamentary leadership. The European Union has called on the political leaders to resume the talks.

Montenegro's government has decided to introduce property confiscation in cases of unpaid taxes.





Key points:



o The budget deficit shrank 5.9% y/y to 21.3mn in January

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 4.3% y/y to 14,701 in January

o Industrial output declined 12.3% y/y in January

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - February, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

Montenegro's GDP to rise 4.0% in 2016 - EBRD4

2.Inflation4

Montenegro's PPI inflation ticks up 0.1% y/y in January4

Montenegro's CPI inflation cools to 0.8% y/y in January5

3.Industry and Trade5

Montenegro's industrial output eases annual contraction in January5

Montenegro's industrial sales fall 20.8% y/y in January5

Montenegro's retail sales growth slows further in January6

4.Labour Market6

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 17.85% as of February 8 - employment agency6

Montenegro's monthly average net wage up 1.7% y/y in January7

5.Tourism7

Foreign tourist arrivals to Montenegro rise 4.3% y/y in January7

FISCAL SECTOR8

Outstanding debt of Montenegrin municipalities at EUR102.84mn at end-September 20158

Montenegro's govt introduces property confiscation for unpaid taxes8

Montenegro hopes to raise EUR912mn from taxes in 20169

Montenegro's customs revenue at EUR29.38mn in January9

Montenegro to rebalance budget in H2, finance ministry says9

Montenegro's January budget gap contracts 5.9% y/y10

Montenegro hikes pensions by up to 20% as of July 110

Montenegro sells EUR300m Eurobond at 6% yield10

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION12

Montenegrin banks' liquidity spikes 33.6% y/y in November 2015 - c-bank12

Montenegro's c-bank gives licence to Azmont Banka12

Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 15.9% y/y to EUR249.1mn at end-December13

Montenegro's NPL ratio falls to 12.5% in December, c-bank says13

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.76% in January14

Montenegro's bank deposits growth slows to 12.8% y/y in January14

EXTERNAL SECTOR14

Montenegro's end-September state debt at EUR2.15bn14

Montenegro's trade gap widens 11.9%15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS15

Stratex, Turkey's Dogus to jointly expand Montenegrin marina project15

Montenegro Airlines to get EUR2.2mn state aid16

Montenegro's KAP replaces power monopoly EPCG with Slovak LE Trading for power supplies16

China, Turkey interested in Montenegro's EUR530mn Moraca HPP project16

Montenegro's CGES to invest EUR50mn in network upgrade in 201617

POLITICS17

Nato's Stoltenberg urges Montenegro to continue reforms, fight corruption17

Russian deputy PM Rogozin banned from entering Montenegro18

Nato launches accession talks with Montenegro19

Montenegro's parliament approves interior minister's dismissal19

One Montenegrin in nine signs petition calling for Nato referendum19

Montenegrin parties fail to agree on opposition's joining govt20

Montenegro's ruling DPS, opposition parties seek replacement of parliament speaker21

EU calls Montenegrin political parties to resume talks on opposition's entry in government22

Montenegro's police, prosecutors at loggerheads over officer arrests22

Montenegro's opposition to file no-confidence motion against government23

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