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Poland Construction Report - Q1, 2014

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 20 pages

The construction and assembly production index dropped by approximately 11% year on year in 2013, accelerating from the single-digit annual decline recorded in 2012. All segments of the construction market decreased on an annual basis in 2013, with the civil engineering segment recording the steepest drop. In Jan 2014, construction output further diminished by 3.9% year on year, but recovered in February, when it rose by 14.4% year on year.



The sharp decline in 2013 is mainly on high base comparison, yet the construction sector has been visibly affected by the sluggish demand since June 2012, as investments related to the Euro 2012 soccer championship and the infrastructure projects financed by the EU Cohesion Fund neared completion, while residential investments remained at low level.



The Polish construction sector is expected to start recovering at sluggish pace beginning with 2014, with prospects of new tenders for projects within the new wave of EU funding. Accordingly, the civil engineering segment is expected to perform better than the other market segments. Poland will benefit from EUR 17.5bn investment in transport infrastructure in 2014-2020, as part of an EU Infrastructure and Environment programme. Besides these funds, transport infrastructure improvement projects will also be supported by the Connecting Europe Facility, which has earmarked at least EUR 4bn for infrastructure development in the country.



The housing market might also see a revival, considering record low interest rates and a new governmental house loan programme that supports first-time buyers.

Construction gross output (measured in constant 1995 USD) is expected to inch up 2.1% year on year in 2014 and further rise by 5.4% year on year in 2015, to reach USD 43.6bn in 2020, according to QuERI forecasts.

Table Of Contents

Poland Construction Report - Q1, 2014
Contents

Executive summary4

Market overview5

Construction output y/y decline accelerates in 20135

Construction market value shrinks 10% y/y in 20136

Value of industrial construction market reaches record level in 20137

Railway construction market value is expected to surge by 1/3 in 20147

Construction sector to start recovering at sluggish pace in 20147

Building construction8

Completed dwellings number drops 4.9% y/y in 20138

Number of building permits shrinks 16% y/y in 20139

Polish residential real estate market stabilises, number of transactions surges at record level in Q4/201310

Government enforces new subsidized home loan scheme, earmarks PLN 3.5bn under programme for 2014-201811

Infrastructure11

Infrastructure construction to start recovering as EU funding picks up11

Polands adds PLN 25bn new investments to 2011-2015 road construction programme12

Railway projects to benefit from EUR 10.5bn EU funds in 2014-202012

Poland to apply for CEF funding for five major rail projects12

Corporate news13

Polimex-Mostostal reports shrinking revenues in 2013, amends restructuring plan13

Strabag targets PLN 3bn revenues in 201414

Skanska reports rising profit, higher order book in 201314

Budimex to improve margins in 2014, expects overall consolidated revenue to return to growth next year15

Warbud wins contracts for building museum, hospital extension17

Spain's Dragados delists Pol-Aqua from Warsaw Stock Exchange17

Erbud's revenue drops, profit rises y/y in 201318

Statistical appendix19



Table 1 Residential construction indicators in 2009-2013 (annual, number, y/y)9

Table 2 Number of dwellings with granted permits in 2007-2014 (thou units, ytd)10

Table 3 Transport infrastructure industry in 2012-2017f - Selective indicators (PLN bn, annual)11

Table 4 Investments added to the 2011-2015 road construction programme (PLN bn)12

Table 5 Polimex - Mostostal S.A.- Selected financials in 2010-2013 (PLN thou, annual)13

Table 6 Strabag Sp. z o.o.- Selected financials in 2009-2012 (PLN thou, annual)14

Table 7 Skanska S.A.- Selected financials in 2007-2012 (PLN thou, annual)15

Table 8 Budimex S.A.- Selected financials in 2010-2013 (PLN thou, annual)16

Table 9 WARBUD S.A.- Selected financials in 2009-2012 (PLN thou, annual)17

Table 10 Pol-Aqua S.A.- Selected financials in 2010-2013 (PLN thou, annual, 9M)18

Table 11 ERBUD S.A.- Selected financials in 2010-2013 (PLN thou, annual)18

Table 12 Civil engineering construction output by type of works in 2003-2012 (PLN mn, annual)19

Table 13 Sales of constructionandassembly production per capita in 2007-2012 (PLN)19

Table 14 Transport infrastructure construction output by type of works in 2012-2013 (PLN mn, quarterly)20



Figure 1 Construction assembly production index in 2009-2013 (monthly, y/y)5

Figure 2 Construction confidence indicator in 2003-2014 (pps)5

Figure 3 Value of construction output by segments in 2012-2013 (PLN bn, % of total)6

Figure 4 Construction output by type of works in 2009-2013 (PLN mn, quarterly)6

Figure 5 Construction and assembly production value in 2003-2013 (PLN bn, annual)6

Figure 6 Construction gross output in 2007-2020f (USD bn)8

Figure 7 Completed dwellings in 2005-2013 (annual, number)9

Figure 8 Selective dwelling statistics in 2007-2014 (thou units, ytd)10

Figure 9 Dwelling stock in 2005-2010 (number of dwellings, usable floor space per person)11


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