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The construction and assembly production index dropped by approximately 11% year on year in 2013, accelerating from the single-digit annual decline recorded in 2012. All segments of the construction market decreased on an annual basis in 2013, with the civil engineering segment recording the steepest drop. In Jan 2014, construction output further diminished by 3.9% year on year, but recovered in February, when it rose by 14.4% year on year.
The sharp decline in 2013 is mainly on high base comparison, yet the construction sector has been visibly affected by the sluggish demand since June 2012, as investments related to the Euro 2012 soccer championship and the infrastructure projects financed by the EU Cohesion Fund neared completion, while residential investments remained at low level.
The Polish construction sector is expected to start recovering at sluggish pace beginning with 2014, with prospects of new tenders for projects within the new wave of EU funding. Accordingly, the civil engineering segment is expected to perform better than the other market segments. Poland will benefit from EUR 17.5bn investment in transport infrastructure in 2014-2020, as part of an EU Infrastructure and Environment programme. Besides these funds, transport infrastructure improvement projects will also be supported by the Connecting Europe Facility, which has earmarked at least EUR 4bn for infrastructure development in the country.
The housing market might also see a revival, considering record low interest rates and a new governmental house loan programme that supports first-time buyers.
Construction gross output (measured in constant 1995 USD) is expected to inch up 2.1% year on year in 2014 and further rise by 5.4% year on year in 2015, to reach USD 43.6bn in 2020, according to QuERI forecasts.
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