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Montenegro Country Report - March, 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 23 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of March 6-April 5, 2016.

Montenegro could become a member of Nato in spring next year, according to general Petr Pavel, chairman of the NATO military committee.

Meanwhile, the prime minister Milo Djukanovic said that the country hopes that it will open all chapters in its negotiations for membership of the European Union by the first half of 2017.

The European Parliament has urged Montenegro to set as its top priority the fight against corruption which it says remains serious problem for the country.

Montenegro's ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), led by prime minister Milo Djukanovic, and several opposition parties resumed the negotiations on the oppositions joining to the government as a key prerequisite for setting conditions for fair elections this autumn.

At the same time, the four biggest opposition parties in Montenegro - Demokratska Crna Gora (DCG), the Democratic Front (DF), DEMOS and United Reform Action (URA) -signed a cooperation agreement ahead of local and general elections this year.

Montenegro plans to invest EUR971.4mn in regional development in 2016 according to the government's 2014-2020 strategy.



Key points:



o The budget deficit shrank 21.9% y/y to EUR34.1mn in the first two months of 2016

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 8.0% y/y to 17,741 in February

o Industrial sales plunged by 53.2% y/y in February

o Bank assets went up 11.1% y/y to EUR3.462bn at end-February

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - March, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

Montenegro's GDP growth improves to 3.2% in 20154

IMF forecasts Montenegro's 2016 economic growth at 4.6%4

2.Inflation5

Montenegro's HICP inflation slows to 0.5% y/y in February5

Montenegro's CPI inflation slows to 0.1% y/y in February6

Montenegro's PPI inflation inches up 0.2% y/y in February6

3.Industry and Trade6

Montenegro's retail sales growth accelerates in February6

Montenegro's industrial sales plunge 53.2% y/y in February7

4.Labour Market7

Montenegro's unemployment rate falls to 17.6% in 2015, Labour Force Survey shows7

Montenegro's unemployment rate cools to 18.23% as of April 47

Montenegro's monthly average net wage growth stays at 1.7% y/y in February8

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 18.52% as of March 78

5.Tourism8

Foreign tourist arrivals in Montenegro rise 8.0% y/y in February8

Montenegro's unemployment rate falls to 17.9% in Q4, Labour Force Survey shows9

FISCAL SECTOR9

Montenegro's 2-mo budget gap contracts 21.9% y/y on higher income9

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION10

Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 12.8% y/y to EUR241mn at end-February10

Montenegro's NPL ratio at 12.7% in February10

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro rises to 8.63% in February11

Montenegro's bank deposits growth accelerates to 13.9% y/y in February11

Montenegro's bank assets growth accelerates y/y in February11

IMF urges Montenegro to deal with weak banks12

Hypo-Alpe Adria Bank Montenegro says CHF loan conversion caused EUR20.6mn loss12

Montenegro's banking sector turns to loss in 201513

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows y/y in January13

EXTERNAL SECTOR14

Montenegro's trade gap widens 11.4% in Jan-Feb14

Montenegro's net FDI inflow shrinks y/y to EUR8mn in January14

Montenegro's 2015 current account gap contracts 7.6% y/y to EUR486mn15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS15

Montenegro's Lustica Bay luxury marina to be operational in 201715

Montenegro to invest almost EUR1bn in regional development in 201615

Montenegrin prosecutors reportedly probe flag carrier's contract with UAE's Etihad Airways16

EC to provide EUR67.2mn to Bosnia, Croatia and Montenegro for cross-border cooperation17

China's CRBC hopes to get approval for Montenegro's motorway project by March 2517

Montenegro converts EUR2.1mn of flag carrier's debt into capital17

First Hilton hotel to open doors in Montenegro within two months18

POLITICS18

Montenegro's deputy PM Luksic resigns to focus on UN secretary-general application18

Montenegro hopes to open all EU chapters by H1 201718

Montenegro's parliament speaker cancels debate on his own dismissal19

Montenegro could join Nato in spring 2017, alliance official says19

Four opposition parties in Montenegro sign cooperation pact20

Montenegro's ruling DPS, opposition could resume talks on power sharing, fair elections21

EP urges Montenegro to set corruption fight as priority21

Montenegro's parliament to vote on speaker's replacement on March 2322

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