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Bulgaria Country Report - March, 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

This report covers the key macroeconomic, financial and political releases for Bulgaria for the period since March 15, 2016.



In its April World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Bulgaria's 2016 real GDP growth to 2.3% from 1.9% projected in October. According to the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia economic update, the country's GDP growth is expected to slow down to 2.2% in 2016 from 3.0% last year.



Bulgaria's finance ministry has projected that economic growth will slow down to 2.1% in 2016 from 3.0% last year, but expects it to accelerate to 2.5% in 2017.



Bulgaria's business confidence strengthened m/m for a third consecutive month in March. The industrial production growth decelerated to 2.1% y/y in February from 2.2% y/y in January. The construction output went down 1.9% y/y in February, cooling from a revised 10.4% annual decline the previous month. Retail sales (at constant prices) increased by 3.1% y/y in February, speeding up from a 1.3% y/y rise in January.





Key points:

oThe CPI decreased by 1.5% y/y in March after dropping by 0.5% y/y in February

oBulgaria reported a consolidated budget surplus of BGN1.86bn (EUR949mn) in Q1, equal to some 2.1% of projected GDP, preliminary data from the finance ministry showed

oThe country reported a current account surplus of EUR165.5mn in January, reversing a deficit of EUR108.4mn in January 2015

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