1. Market Research

Romania Country Report - March, 2015

  • April 2015
  • 39 pages
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
Report ID: 3307100

Summary

Table of Contents

The report covers info as of April 17.



The consensus expectations for Romania's medium-term growth are improving. S&P projects average 3% p.a. growth on medium run. But there remain some concerns - mainly related to the effects of government's planned major fiscal reforms. Furthermore, the improvement in investors' sentiment might have been driven to some extent by the anti-corruption actions and expected positive impact. The reasoning is in principle correct, but the judicial reforms still need to consolidate and to yield a chain of predictable in court. Other driver for positive expectations is the rise in domestic consumption and investments - which remain to be confirmed. Absorption of EU funds remains very disappointing.



Furthermore, the banking system is far from a fast recovery mode. Recent data reveal that the build-up of loans in households' and companies' portfolios remained in the negative area in Q4 last year despite more optimistic expectations. Also in the banking system, the balance sheet cleaning, which has advanced robustly since May to December last year, has surprisingly reversed in Jan-Feb.



The planned fiscal reforms are a source of uncertainty. The government cut the VAT rate for food to 9% [from standard 24%] effective June 2015 already. More rate cuts are expected in January, when the revised Fiscal Code is scheduled for enforcement. In principle, lower taxes could spur growth and there is room for such cuts provided tax evasion is reduced. The problem is that the tax collection has traditionally been particularly weak. The tax collection agency ANAF took visible steps to cut tax evasion, but actions in critical sectors such as alcohol, petroleum products trading, fruits and vegetables import and generally the imports in Constanta port, have not been visible yet.



Key Points



oHouseholds' stock of long-term loans [over 1yr maturity] picked up in Q4 - but the net flow of loans [transactions] remained in the negative area

oCooperation and Verification Mechanism is driving judicial reforms in Romania, Bulgaria - EC official

oOpposition's plans to oust government lose momentum

oGovernment reportedly discussed fiscal reforms with IMF in Washington, SBA remains in limbo

oStatistics office revises 2014 GDP growth 0.1pp down to 2.8%

oIMF forecasts Romania's growth at 2.7% in 2015

oS&P affirms Romania's rating, projects robust 3% p.a. growth in medium term

oIndustrial growth strengthens to 3.2% y/y in February

oConstruction works up 14.8% y/y in Jan-Feb from low base

oCPI inflation accelerates to 0.8% y/y in March, VAT rate cut effect expected

oNet wage up real 6% y/y in February; Romania's ILO unemployment down 0.6pp to 6.4% in February

oGovernment announces 0.33% of GDP budget surplus in Jan-Feb; Government's 0.2% of GDP surplus in Q1 supports VAT rate cut plans - PM Ponta

oFiscal Code bill seriously threatens fiscal stability - Fiscal Council

oRomania should reconsider size and timing of planned tax cuts - IMF

oNew minister admits Romania might absorb less EU funds than planned this year

oRomania not ready to enter ERM II in January 2016 - c-bank governor Isarescu

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 60 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 25,000 trusted sources
  • Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.
  • Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users
  • Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country
  • Corporate License — allows for complete access, globally.

Ahmad helps you find the right report:

Testimonials

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at
Ikea

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at
PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at
Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at
American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at
Ingredion

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at
Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at
LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.