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Montenegro Country Report - April, 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 21 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of April 6 - May 5, 2015.

In the beginning of May, the European Commission upgraded its 2015 GDP forecast on Montenegro, saying it now anticipates an increase of 3.3%, supported by expectations for investments in several tourist resorts and the construction of a key motorway stretch. At the same time, it raised its 2016 growth forecast to 3.9% from the previous 3.7%.

The IMF also raised its GDP growth projection for this year to 4.7% from 3.4, adding that it expects growth to weaken to 3.5% in 2016, and to decelerate to 3.3% in 2020.

The report also gives details about the latest developments of the planned Ionian-Adriatic Gas Pipeline (IAP) and presents UAE's Royal Group plans to build an airport in the Adriatic town of Ulcinj and 10 five-star hotels in Montenegro's summer resort Ada Bojana.





Key points:



o Montenegro's budget deficit contracted 1.7% y/y to EUR51.6mn in the first quarter of 2015

o Consumer prices accelerated their annual growth to 1.6% in March from 0.6% y/y in February

o Industrial output climbed 19.3% y/y in March

o Unemployment rate declined to 18% in 2014 from 19.5% a year ago - labour force survey

o Bank assets rose 5.7% y/y to EUR3.14bn at end-March

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - April, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

GDP growth brakes to 1.5% in 20144

IMF improves Montenegro's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 4.7%4

EC lifts Montenegro's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% on key motorway, tourism projects5

2.Inflation5

CPI inflation speeds up to 1.6% y/y in March5

HICP turns to 0.9% y/y growth in March6

PPI inflation slows to 0.5% y/y in March7

3.Industry and Trade7

Industrial output climbs 19.3% y/y in March7

Industrial sales growth accelerates to 15.1% y/y in March8

Montenegro's retail sales decline 0.3% y/y in March8

4.Labour Market9

Monthly average net wage rises 0.4% y/y in March9

Montenegro's unemployment rate falls to 18% in 2014 - Labour Force Survey9

Montenegro's unemployment rate falls to 14.63% in early May - employment agency9

5.Tourism10

Tourism contributes 9.5% of Montenegro's GDP in 2014, seen rising by 6% in 2015 - WTTC10

FISCAL SECTOR10

Q1 budget gap contracts 1.7% y/y to EUR51.6mn10

Montenegro's customs revenue up 16% y/y in Q112

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION12

Bank assets growth accelerates to 5.7% y/y at end-March12

Bank deposits growth speeds up to 10% y/y in March13

Average lending interest rate falls to 8.94% in March13

Montenegro likely to keep using euro as national currency after joining EU - c-bank13

EXTERNAL SECTOR14

Trade gap widens 3.7% y/y in Q1 despite rising exports14

Net FDI inflow up 11.9% y/y to EUR51.8mn in January-February14

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS15

Montenegro aims to secure loan from UAE15

Montenegro to keep control in power firm EPCG16

CEB to support social, environmental projects in Montenegro17

Montenegro frees China's CRBC from taxes, customs fees17

Montenegro, Croatia, Albania to sign MoU on TAP-linked gas pipeline17

Coal mine Rudnig Uglja tops list of biggest tax debtors in April18

UK's High Court of Justice dismisses claim of Russia's VTB against Montenegro's KAP18

Chinese investors eye Montenegro's tourism sector19

UAE's Royal Group to build airport, 10 hotels, if acquires Montenegro's Ada Bojana island19

Montenegrin firms place grey economy on top of business hurdles19

Croatia Airlines interested in acquiring stake in Montenegro Airlines - report20

Turkey's Polin delays launch of EUR7.5mn Montenegrin aqua park project20

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