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Bulgaria Country Report - April, 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 31 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

This report covers the key macroeconomic, financial and political releases for Bulgaria for the period since April 17, 2016.



Bulgaria's real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9% y/y in the first quarter of 2016 from 3% y/y in the previous three months, a seasonally-adjusted statistics office flash estimate showed on May 13.



The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised upwards Bulgaria's 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2% projected in November. In the spring edition of its European economic forecast, the European Commission (EC) raised its forecasts for Bulgaria's GDP growth in both 2016 and 2017, to 2% and 2.4%, respectively, from 1.5% and 2% projected in February.



Bulgaria's consumer sentiment improved during the three months to April, with the confidence indicator rising 1.8 points to -26.9, its best level since April 2007.



Bulgaria's business confidence deteriorated m/m in April. The industrial production growth accelerated to 3% y/y in March from 2.7% y/y in February. The construction output went down 9.3% y/y in March, after decreasing by revised 5.2% y/y the month before. Retail sales (at constant prices) climbed 6.2% y/y in March, speeding up from a 3.3% y/y rise in February.





Key points:

oThe CPI decreased by 2.2% y/y in April after dropping by 1.5% y/y in March

oBulgaria reported a consolidated budget surplus of BGN2.35bn (EUR1.2bn) in January-April, equal to some 2.6% of projected GDP, preliminary data from the finance ministry showed

oThe country reported a current account surplus of EUR168.3mn in January and February, reversing a deficit of EUR318.1mn in the first two months of 2015

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