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Romania Country Report - April, 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 34 pages

The report covers info as of April 20.

The datio in solutum bill is on the verge of being promulgated in a form harshly criticised by banks.



Key Points

oS&P affirms BBB- rating for Romania; risks tamed by low public, external debt

oPublic debt to GDP ratio down 1.32p to 37.8% at end-Jan

oRomania's C/A deficit widens 8 times y/y to 0.2% of GDP in Jan-Feb

oIMF raises Romania's GDP growth forecast to 4.2% in 2016

oWorld Bank ups Romania's 2016 growth projection to 4%, warns on risks of excessive deficit

oRomania revises upward 2015 GDP growth to 3.8%

oIndustry grows by only 0.8% y/y in February; output in past 12 months increased by 2.2% y/y, decelerating from 2.8% y/y calculated at the end of 2015

oRetail sales growth accelerates to 21.8% y/y in February; services rendered to Romanian households 20% up y/y in February

oConstruction works 8.7% up y/y in February

oCPI deflation deepens in March to minus 3% y/y

oNet wages in Romania up real 15.8% y/y in February

oILO unemployment flat at 6.5% in February

oRevenues to budget 6% above target in Q1, VAT collections 10%-15% down y/y

oPresident Iohannis returns law on macroprudential supervisory body to lawmakers

oCentral bank maintains monetary policy rate at 1.75%; hikes expected for next year

oRomanian banks could sell EUR3bn of NPLs this year, KPMG says

oBanks keep extending mortgage loans to households at fast pace in February

oNew consumer loans to households 66% up y/y in Jan-Feb

oExports return to high growth in February: 9.5% up y/y

oAnnual FOB trade gap 70% up y/y to 3.9% of GDP at end-February

Table Of Contents

Romania Country Report - April, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

FOCUS STORY: Datio in Solutum bill - nearly promulgated6

Romanian parliament endorses controversial debt discharge bill6

Fitch says proposed mortgage law in Romania is negative for bank performance7

RELATIONSHIP WITH IFIs7

SandP affirms BBB- rating for Romania; risks tamed by low public, external debt7

REAL SECTOR8

1. Corporate, structural reforms8

2. GDP, forecasts9

IMF raises Romania's GDP growth forecast to 4.2% in 20169

World Bank ups Romania's 2016 growth projection to 4%, warns on risks of excessive deficit9

Romania revises upward 2015 GDP growth to 3.8%10

3. Industry, Constructions, Retail11

Car production 4.1% down y/y in Q112

Romania's economy uses 7.6% more electricity y/y in Jan-Feb13

Use of oil and gas up by over 2% y/y in Jan-Feb13

Services to firms 9.8% up y/y in Romania in February14

Services rendered to Romanian households 20% up y/y in February14

Construction works 8.7% up y/y in February15

Retail sales growth accelerates to 21.8% y/y in February16

4. Prices, Inflatio17

CPI deflation deepens in March17

February industrial prices 3.3% down y/y17

5. Labour Market18

Romania's government withdraws bill on public sector wages18

Net wages in Romania up real 15.8% y/y in February19

ILO unemployment flat at 6.5% in February20

FISCAL SECTOR21

1. Budget Execution21

Revenues to budget 6% above target in Q1, VAT collections 10%-15% down y/y21

2. Public Debt22

Public debt to GDP ratio down 1.32p to 37.8% at end-Jan22

FINANCIAL SECTOR23

President Iohannis returns law on macroprudential supervisory body to lawmakers23

MONETARY POLICY24

Central bank maintains monetary policy rate24

BANK REGULATIONS24

1.Bank Loan Quality25

Overdue payments on forex loans in Romania up in February25

BCR bank reportedly to sell EUR110mn NPL bundle to APS25

Romanian banks could sell EUR3bn of NPLs this year, KPMG says26

2. LOANS, DEPOSITS27

Banks keep extending mortgage loans to households at fast pace in February27

New consumer loans to households 66% up y/y in Jan-Feb28

Bank deposits up 9.5% y/y at end-February29

3. NON-BANK30

City Insurance placed under financial recovery on insufficient capital30

EXTERNAL SECTOR31

1.Balance of Payments31

Romania's C/A deficit widens 8 times y/y to 0.2% of GDP in Jan-Feb31

2. Foreign Trade31

Exports return to high growth in February31

Annual FOB trade gap 70% up y/y to 3.9% of GDP at end-February32

2.External Debt33

Gross external debt 4.3% down y/y at EUR89.6bn at end-February33

3.Forex Reserves34

Forex reserves at c-bank EUR457mn up in March34


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