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Montenegro Country Report - May, 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 21 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of May 6 - June 5, 2015.

Standard & Poor's said it has affirmed Montenegro's B+/B long-term and short-term foreign and local currency ratings with stable outlook on expectations for strong economic growth of an average 3.4% per year in 2015-2018, backed by increased investment activity.

Moody's said in a report that Montenegro's fiscal strength has been worsening in the wake of the double-dip recession of 2008-09 and 2012, reflected in its debt-to-GDP ratio which has increased to almost 58.0% in 2014, more than doubling from 2007's 27.5% level.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) left unchanged its 2015 economic growth forecast for Montenegro at 3% in the May edition of its Regional Economic Prospects report. The growth should be supported by the construction of the first priority section of the Bar-Boljare motorway from Smokovac to Matesevo.



Key points:



o The budget deficit contracted by 4.3% y/y to EUR64.5mn in January-April

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 19.8% y/y in April to 37,125, speeding up from a 7.4% y/y hike in March

o Industrial output rose 11.4% y/y in April, slowing from a 19.3% y/y growth in March

o Unemployment rate declined to 13.95% as of June 1

o Bank assets rose 7.6% y/y to EUR3.18bn at end-April, speeding up from a 5.7% annual growth the month before

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - May, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

EBRD keeps Montenegro's 2015 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%4

2.Inflation4

CPI inflation speeds up to 2.1% y/y in April4

HICP inflation speeds up to 1.3% y/y growth in April5

PPI inflation slows to 0.3% y/y in April6

3.Industry and Trade7

Industrial output climbs 11.4% y/y in April7

Industrial sales shrink 16.8% y/y in April7

Retail sales decline 1.5% y/y in April8

4.Labour Market8

Monthly average net wage rises 0.8% y/y in April8

Unemployment rate falls to 13.95% in early June - employment agency8

5.Tourism8

Foreign tourist arrivals rise 20% y/y in April8

FISCAL SECTOR9

Jan-Apr budget gap narrows 4.3% y/y to EUR64.5mn9

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION11

Bank assets growth accelerates to 7.6% y/y at end-April11

Bank deposits growth speeds up to 11.6% y/y in April11

Average lending interest rate falls to 9.01% in April12

NPL ratio down to 15.8% in March - c-bank12

Number of banks in Montenegro to fall - industry official12

Combined net profit of Montenegro's banks shrinks 76% y/y to EUR2.3mn in Q113

EXTERNAL SECTOR13

Current account gap widens 8.1% y/y to EUR525.8mn in 201413

Net FDI inflow up 9.3% y/y to EUR86.2mn in Q114

Trade gap widens 2.9% y/y in Jan-Apr on falling exports14

Montenegro needs to take adequate measures to reduce public debt - finance minister15

Montenegro's public debt rises 25% y/y to EUR2.44bn at end-March - report15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS16

EIB to provide Montenegro EUR10mn for water network upgrades16

Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, Montenegro sign $50mn loan for agriculture projects16

Montenegro to open tenders for construction of small HPPs on three rivers16

Montenegro's ACG seeks consultant for construction of second terminal at Tivat airport16

Qatari Diar to launch construction of luxury hotel in Montenegro17

Montenegro seeks ways to keep Chinese loan cheap17

Moody's says Montenegro's worsening debt profile is mitigated by high debt affordability18

Montenegro expects to sign new agreement on EPCG Management - Deputy PM Lazovic19

SandP affirms Montenegro's B+/B ratings on expected economic growth19

Montenegro calls consultancy services tender for EUR23.5mn local roads upgrade20

Montenegro to set up SPV for the 250 MW thermal power unit20

China's CRBC launches construction of Montenegro's key Bar-Boljare motorway21

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