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Montenegro Country Report - May, 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 23 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of May 6-June 5, 2016.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) left unchanged its 2016 economic growth forecast for Montenegro at 4.0%, up from 3.1% in 2015, in the May edition of its Regional Economic Prospects report.

The foreign ministers of Nato member states signed the protocol for the accession of Montenegro to the alliance at a meeting in Brussels on May 19.

Russian tourists and investments in Montenegro could decline if the country becomes a Nato member, as Moscow aims to show that Western countries made the wrong decision in inviting the Adriatic country to join the alliance, the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) has said.

Svetozar Marovic, the former president of Serbia and Montenegro, has signed an agreement with Montenegro's special prosecution, pleading guilty over his role in the so-called "Budva affair".







Key points:



o The budget deficit shrank 44.5% y/y to EUR87.6mn in the first four months of 2016

o The consumer prices declined by 0.7% y/y in April

o Industrial output contracted by 14.1% y/y in April

o Bank assets rose 8.5% y/y to EUR3.45bn at end-April

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - May, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

EBRD keeps Montenegro's 2016 GDP growth forecast at 4.0%4

2.Inflation4

Montenegro's consumer prices ease annual fall in April4

Montenegro's PPI turns to growth in April4

3.Industry and Trade5

Montenegro's industrial sales ease annual fall to 16.3% y/y in April5

Montenegro's industrial output shrinks 14.1% y/y in April5

4.Labour Market6

Montenegro's monthly average net wage grows 4.4% y/y in April6

5.Tourism6

Montenegro hopes to raise EUR1bn in tourism revenue in 20166

Montenegro's government scraps visas for EU, Russian tourists6

FISCAL SECTOR7

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION7

Montenegro's NPL ratio falls to 12% in March7

Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 13.6% y/y to EUR245.5mn at end-March8

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.65% in April8

Montenegro's banking sector Q1 net profit at EUR6.6mn8

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows further in April9

Montenegro's bank deposits growth slows to 11.6% y/y in Aprilt9

Montenegrin banks' liquidity up 33.7% y/y in February, c-bank says9

EXTERNAL SECTOR10

Montenegro's Q1 current account gap widens 45.6% y/y to EUR283.9mn10

Montenegro's Q1 net FDI sinks to EUR11.6mn10

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS11

Dubai's ICD reportedly offers EUR8mn to buy land for luxury hotel in Montenegro11

Dubai's ICD seeks to participate in construction of luxury hotel in Montenegro11

Qatari Diar ready to launch construction of luxury hotel in Montenegro12

China's CRBC hires 61 Montenegrin firms to work on Smokovac-Matesevo motorway12

POLITICS13

Russia likely to cut investments in Montenegro due to Nato membership, think tank says13

Leader of Montenegro's opposition Pozitivna Crna Gora elected parliament speaker13

Former President Marovic reportedly leaves Montenegro after receiving 4.4 year prison term14

Montenegro could become Nato member by end-2016, Nato official says15

Montenegro's PM Djukanovic pledges to share power with Pozitivna Grna Gora15

Nato foreign ministers sign Montenegro's accession protocol16

Montenegro's parliament approves government reshuffle17

Former Serbia and Montenegro president Marovic gets four-year sentence over Budva affair18

Skirmish in Montenegro parliament delays vote on power sharing deal18

Montenegro's PM, opposition find compromise on government changes20

Montenegro's PM Djukanovic turns down opposition's proposal for agriculture minister21

Brother of former Serbia and Montenegro president Marovic reportedly to be sentenced for Budva affair22

Montenegro's opposition ready to withdraw from deal with PM Djukanovic22

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