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Romania Country Report - June, 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 37 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

The report covers info as of June 28.



Rising private consumption pushed up both the production and the expenditure sides of GDP by 4.3% y/y in Q1, data from the statistics office show.

Retail sales soared by 19% y/y in Q1 in volume, as real wages surged by 15% y/y, the propensity to saving plummeted because of diverse factors including interest rates and consumer confidence. Some of the massive increase in mortgage lending also fuelled consumption, as loans were used to buy existing properties.



Household consumption increased by 9.2% y/y and contributed 6.6pp to the GDP advance, while on the production side, services - most likely wholesale and retail trade - capitalised on the consumption euphoria and captured 13.1% more value added than last year, contributing 2.1pp to the GDP growth.



Key Points

oRomania's Social Democratic Party dominates local elections

oGDP soars by 4.3% y/y in Q1 on rising consumption; GDP per capita second lowest in EU

oIndustrial output accelerates to 3.5% y/y growth in April

oConstruction work 12.6% up y/y in April as more civil engineering projects launched

oRetail sales 19.1% up y/y in April

oHeadline inflation hits minus 3.5% y/y before expected upward correction in June

oAverage net wage growth further accelerates in April; century needed for Romanian labour cost to converge with EU28 average

oRegistered unemployment falls 11% y/y in April; employers report strongest hiring plans in eight years

oBudget balance posts 0.1%-of-GDP deficit in Jan-May

oEU funds absorption rate for 2007-2013 budget hits 69.2% one month before deadline

oPublic debt rises to 38.3% of GDP at end-April

oNPL ratio down 6.18pp to 13.11% at end-April

oLoan portfolio of banks 2.4% up y/y at end-May on strong mortgage lending

oC/A balance deteriorates to 1.1% deficit of GDP in Jan-Apr

oExport growth accelerates to 6.9% y/y in April, imports 9.8% up y/y


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