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Montenegro Country Report - July , 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 27 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of July 6-August 5, 2016.

Montenegro's opposition Reform Action (URA) decided to cancel its power sharing agreement between the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and three opposition parties, and to exit the government.

Montenegro will need to invest around EUR1.5bn by 2020 to meet the criteria of the European Union in terms of environment protection and climate change.

Montenegro's government approved a draft agreement with Czech company Skoda Praga on the construction of the second unit at the Pljevlja thermal power plant at a session on July 11.

Qatari CDC International was the sole company to file a bid in the tender for the sale of 4.9 square kilometres of land in the Buljarica municipality.

CEAC Holding, owned by Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, has lost an arbitration with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) against Montenegro on the bankruptcy of the country's aluminium smelter KAP.



Key points:



o The budget deficit shrank 57.4% y/y to EUR112.8mn in the first five months of 2016

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 5% y/y to 171,412 in June

o Industrial output increased by 6.1% y/y in June

o Bank assets rose 8.5% y/y to EUR3.51bn at the end of June

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - July , 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

REAL SECTOR5

1.Inflation5

Montenegro's consumer price deflation holds at 1% y/y in June5

Montenegro's PPI stays flat y/y in June5

Montenegro's HICP deflation deepens to 0.6% y/y in June5

2.Industry and Trade6

Montenegro's industrial output slows growth in June6

Montenegro's industrial sales decline 22.2% y/y in June6

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 3.5% y/y in June6

3.Labour Market7

Montenegro's monthly average net wage grows 4.4% y/y in June7

4.Tourism7

Foreign tourist arrivals in Montenegro rise 5% y/y in June7

FISCAL SECTOR8

Montenegro sells out EUR16.4mn 182-day T-bills issue, yields fall8

Montenegro's 5-mo budget gap shrinks 57.4% y/y to EUR112.8mn8

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION8

Montenegro's NPL ratio falls to 12.2% in May9

Montenegro's bank assets growth accelerates in June9

Montenegro's bank deposits growth cools further in June9

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 6.72% in June10

Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 10.7% y/y to EUR243.8mn at end-June10

Montenegro's NPL ratio falls to 11.7% in June10

Montenegro's banking sector H1 net profit nearly doubles y/y to EUR14.2mn11

EXTERNAL SECTOR11

Montenegro's H1 trade gap widens 15.7% y/y11

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS12

Azerbaijan offers Montenegro EUR175mn loan for construction of Verige bridge12

Montenegro needs EUR1.5bn by 2020 to meet EU environment protection criteria13

Azerbaijan denies offering Montenegro EUR175mn loan for construction of Verige bridge13

Montenegrin NGO Gradjanska Akcija files claim against tourism minister, Budva mayor on Buljarica land sale14

KfW, Montenegro sign EUR25mn deal on Trans-Balkan Electricity Corridor14

Montenegro's government approves deal with Czech Skoda Praha for construction of new TPP unit15

Qatari CDC International files sole bid in Buljarica land sale15

Montenegro needs deal with Italy's A2A on second unit of Pljevlja TPP, deputy PM Lazovic says16

Montenegro's Deputy PM Vujovic calls for investigation into tender for Buljarica land sale17

Montenegrin parliament's economy committee approves new agreement with Italy's A2A18

ICSID cancels CEAC's claim against Montenegro on KAP bankruptcy19

Italy's Terna delays completion of submarine power link with Montenegro by two years19

Montenegro fails to attract fourth mobile phone operator with EUR50mn sale of new radio frequencies20

POLITICS20

Montenegro's prosecution probes party member appointments by Finance Minister Konjevic20

Montenegro's high court accepts agreement with son of former Serbia and Montenegro president Marovic on Budva affair21

Disagreement over new deal with Italy's A2A shakes Montenegro's government21

Montenegro's opposition URA leaves government as parliament adopts deal with Italy's A2A23

Montenegro's opposition to decide by mid-August whether to leave government24

Montenegro's high court sentences former mayor to 18 months in jail on Budva affair24

Montenegro's opposition ministers reportedly want to stay in government25

Montenegro's opposition URA exits government26

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