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Bosnia Country Report - July , 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from July 7 until August 6, 2014 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia's GDP expanded a real 2.7% y/y in the first quarter of 2014 quickening from a 2.0% y/y growth in the previous three months, which was underpinned mainly by rising manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade output.

Bosnia's authorities estimated the overall economic impact of the mid-May floods in the country at BAM 3.98bn (EUR 2.04bn) as damages amounted to BAM 2.49bn (9.3% of GDP), while losses equalled BAM 1.49bn. In Brussels was held the EU-sponsored donor conference, which has managed to mobilise EUR 809mn for Bosnia to face their financial needs.

The report also contains information about the Bosnia's Federation second revision of this year's budget. It speaks about major projects that Bosnia's Serb Federation plans by 2015.







Key point:

oCPI declined for the eleventh consecutive month in June 2014 going down 1.4% y/y reflected a sharper decrease in food, clothing and housing prices and a softer growth in health charges.

oRetail sales recorded 0.6% annual growth in June 2014 thanks to rising sales of non-food products and automotive fuel. IMF sees that private consumption in Bosnia will reach 1.3% this year.

oThe number of employees in Bosnia grew 2.3% y/y in May 2014, while the average net monthly wage edged down by a nominal 0.2% y/y to BAM 830.

Table Of Contents

Bosnia Country Report - July , 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW5

Bosnia estimates economic impact of floods at EUR 2.04bn, nearly 15% of GDP5

EU donor conference mobilises EUR 1.8bn for flood-hit Serbia and Bosnia6

EBRD to provide up to EUR 158mn to support flood recovery in Bosnia6

Flood-hit Bosnia to get up to EUR 87mn in EU financial aid7

REAL SECTOR7

1. GDP7

Bosnia's economic growth strengthens to 2.7% y/y in Q1 20147

Bosnia's Federation GDP growth weakens to 1.9% y/y in Q1 20148

Bosnia's Serb Republic GDP growth eases to 0.5% y/y in Q1 20149

Bosnia's 2013 economic growth revised up to 2.5%9

Bosnia's Federation 2013 GDP growth revised up to 2.8%10

2.Inflation11

Bosnia's consumer prices decline 1.4% y/y in June 201411

Bosnia's PPI inches down 0.2% y/y in June 201412

3. Industry and Trade13

Bosnia's retail sales edge up 0.6% y/y in June 201413

4. Tourism13

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia down 2.2% y/y in Jan-May 201413

5. Labour Market14

Bosnia's number of employees rises 2.3% y/y in May 201414

Bosnia's average net wage declines 0.2% y/y to EUR 424 in May 201414

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY15

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 3.4% y/y to EUR 1.8bn in Jan-July 201415

Bosnia's total public debt stays at EUR 5.32bn at end-201315

Bosnia's external public debt drops 1.2% q/q to EUR 3.8bn at end-June 201416

Bosnia's Federation sells out EUR 15mn issue of three-month T-bills16

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells EUR 5mn of nine-month T-bills17

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth eases to 7.8% y/y in June 201417

Bosnia's FX reserves up 10.5% y/y at end-June 201417

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION18

Bosnia's bank assets growth strengthens to 5.5% y/y at end-June 201418

Bosnia's bank deposits rise 7.8% y/y to EUR 7.4bn at end-June 201419

EXTERNAL SECTOR20

Bosnia's trade gap widens 13% y/y to EUR 1.74bn in January-June 201420

Bosnia's Directorate for Economic Planning cuts 2014 FDI forecast to up to EUR 307mn20

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS21

Bosnia's Serb Republic plans major energy projects by 202521

Bosnian energy producer Elektroprivreda HZ HB unblocks Aluminij's accounts22

POLITICS22

Bosnia's state-level parliament adopts 2014 budget revision22

Bosnia's Federation govt adopts second revision of 2014 budget23

Bosnia's Federation approves state guarantees on EUR 77mn bank loans for motorway construction projects24

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