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Croatia Country Report - July , 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 28 pages

This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between July 6 and August 4, 2015.

Both Fitch and Standard and Poor's lowered in July Croatia's outlook to negative from stable. Fitch said it sees Croatia's budget deficit expanding to 5.5% of GDP this year, compared to previously projected 4.5%. Standard and Poor's warned that general government debt is expected to increase to over 90% of GDP in 2016.

Earlier in July, Croatia's central bank raised this year's forecast to 0.5% from 0.4%, adding that the GDP should expand by 0.9% in 2016. The growth will be supported by rising exports, while domestic demand will have a bigger contribution to the growth only next year.

The report provides details on the latest developments regarding the country's plans to build a LNG terminal on the island of Krk and presents the decision of the consortium made up of U.S. Marathon Oil and Austria's OMV not sign the license contract with Croatia for hydrocarbons exploration and exploitation in the Adriatic.

It also contains information on Croatia's decision to withdraw from the border arbitration with Slovenia and the Constitutional Court's decision to annul the final verdict in two corruption cases against former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader sentenced to prison for bribe taking and ordered a retrial.

Key Points:

o Croatia's consumer prices stayed flat on the year in June, the same as in the previous month. The working-day adjusted industrial output rose 1.6%, slowing from 4.4% in May. The annual growth of the first six months of the year reached 1.4% y/y.

o Croatia's government debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 87.7% in the first quarter of the year from 85.1%

o The unemployment rate fell to 16.1% in June from 17.1% in May. This was the fourth consecutive month of decrease. The average net monthly wage rose 3.3% in May, slowing from a 3.4% hike in April.

o January-May trade gap narrowed 4.1% y/y as exports rose at a faster pace than imports.

Table Of Contents

Croatia Country Report - July , 2015


Fitch lowers Croatia's outlook to negative5

SandP cuts Croatia's outlook to negative on debt5


1. GDP, Inflation6

Croatia's consumer prices flat in June6

Croatia's central bank revises up 2015 growth forecast to 0.5%7

Decline in Croatian producer prices eases in June7

2. Industry and Trade8

Croatia's industrial output growth slows in June8

Growth in Croatia's industrial sales slows in May8

Croatia's retail sales growth slows in June9

Croatia's agricultural production falls 7.7% in 20149

3. Labour Market10

Croatia's unemployment rate continues to fall in June10

Croatia's average net monthly salary rises by real 3.3% y/y in May10

4. Tourism11

Croatia's tourism revenues rise 13.8% to EUR339.7mn in first quarter11

Tourist arrivals to Croatia rise 14.8% y/y in May11


Croatia sees deficit cut to 2.4% of GDP by 201811

Croatian c-bank foreign reserves up 11% y/y to EUR13.7bn at end-June12

Croatia's M4 money supply up 4.8% y/y to EUR36.3bn at end-June12

Croatia places EUR792.6mn worth of 10-year T-bonds on domestic market13

Croatia's state debt rises to 87.7% of GDP in first quarter, reports Eurostat13


Advent, EBRD complete acquisition of Hypo's Balkans operations14

Zagreb bourse's turnover rises 67% m/m in July15

Zagreb Stock Exchange to take over Ljubljana Stock Exchange15

Croatian insurers' premium income rises 3.7% y/y in January-June16

Croatia's Zagrebacka Banka increases stake in Bosnia's UniCredit Bank Mostar17

Net assets of Croatian open-end investment funds rise 2% m/m in June17

Croatian mandatory pension funds' assets up 16% y/y in June17

Net profit of Croatian lender HPB jumps in January-June18

Croatian parliament approves cut in default interest rates18


Croatia's trade gap narrows 4.1% y/y in January-May19

Croatia's gross foreign debt rises 1.1% m/m in April19


VTTI, Croatian gas distributor PPD to jointly invest in storage terminal20

UK Dechra Pharmaceuticals bids EUR51.4mn for Croatian drug maker Genera21

Croatia launches binding bid phase for capacity allocation on planned LNG terminal21

Marathon Oil and Austria's OMV withdraw from offshore oil/gas exploration in Croatia22

Poland's OT Logistics seeking Croatian hub at bottom of North-South corridor24

LNG Hrvatska seeks investor for LNG terminal24

World Bank to provide EUR20mn loan to Croatia for venture capital project25


Croatian MPs vote in favour of quitting border arbitration with Slovenia25

Croatia's Constitutional Court annuls verdict in corruption cases against ex-PM26

Croatia's opposition HDZ Party keeps leading position with 29.5% backing - poll28

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