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Bosnia Country Report - August, 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 17 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from August 6 until September 5, 2014 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.



Despite rising indirect tax revenues in the country since the start of the year, the Indirect Taxation Authority (UIO) has cut its net revenue estimate for 2014 - by 0.8% compared to the initial plan, to reflect the economic impact of the May floods.



The distributive trade sector, which employs some 18% of all employed in the country, contracted by 0.2% y/y due to a drop in the wholesale trade turnover. In addition, the construction sector activities recorded an annual contraction with the value of contracts of Bosnian construction companies abroad shrinking 1.1% y/y because of less activity in Africa.



The report also contains information about the reasons why Bosnia was not included in the 2014-2015 Global Competitiveness Ranking of the World Economic Forum.



On the corporate front, Tropic Group B.V. became the third largest retailer in the country and the largest in Bosnia's Serb Republic after taking over Delhaize Group local stores earlier this year.



On a positive note, a Bosnian-Macedonian consortium of engineering firms will start the construction of the Banja Luka-Prnjavor motorway in the beginning of September.



Key points:



oCPI remained on its downward trend for twelfth consecutive month in July, dropping 0.9% y/y mainly on a softer decrease in food costs.

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production grew 4.0% y/y in July after stagnating the month before.

oThe number of employees in Bosnia grew 1.2% y/y in June, while the average net monthly wage rose by a nominal 0.9% y/y to BAM 829. However, the jobless rate inched up to 43.8% at end-June.

Table Of Contents

Bosnia Country Report - August, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

REAL SECTOR5

1.Inflation5

Bosnia's producer prices tick down 0.2% y/y in July 20145

Bosnia's consumer deflation softens to 0.9% y/y in July 20145

2. Industry and Trade6

Bosnia's industrial production increases 4.0% y/y in July 20146

Bosnia's distributive trade edges down 0.2% y/y in Q2 20147

Bosnia's Federation retail sales growth quickens to 4.8% y/y in July 20147

Bosnia's Serb Republic retail sales decline 9.7% y/y in July 20148

Bosnia's investments in fixed assets increase 1.8% y/y in 20138

Works abroad of Bosnian construction firms drop 1.1% y/y to EUR 27.9mn in H1 20148

Bosnia's Federation construction activity increases 1.6% y/y in Q2 20149

4. Tourism9

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia down 1.9% y/y in H1 20149

5. Labour Market10

Bosnia's number of employees rises 1.2% y/y in June 201410

Bosnia's average net wage rises 0.9% y/y to EUR 424 in June 201410

Bosnia's jobless rate edges up to 43.8% at end-June 2014 - employment agency11

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY11

Bosnia's indirect tax office cuts 2014 revenue projection by 0.8% to EUR 2.54bn11

Bosnia's Federation sells EUR 25.6mn of three-year T-notes12

Bosnia's Federation sells out EUR 10.2mn issue of six-month T-bills12

Bosnia's Federation fails to sell planned EUR 10.2mn issue of three-month T-bills12

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells EUR 7.6mn of six-month T-bills13

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION13

Share of non-performing loans in Bosnia rises to 15.5% in Q2 201413

EXTERNAL SECTOR14

Bosnia's trade gap widens 12% y/y to EUR 2.1bn in January-July 201414

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS14

WEF excludes Bosnia from this year's globalcompetitiveness ranking over data quality concerns14

Bosnia's power firm RiTE Gacko eyes EUR 26mn investments next year14

Tropic Group B.V. takes over Delhaize stores in Bosnia15

Bosnia to start building EUR 158mn Banja Luka-Prnjavor motorway in Sept 201415

UAE's property developer Buroj plans investments in Bosnia16

Prevent Group's plant in Bosnia starts producing car seat covers for Opel16

Balkan states plan to scrap roaming charges as of January 201516

Bosnia's Federation govt approves renewable energy feed-in tariffs17

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