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Albania Country Report - August, 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 34 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Albania for the period of August 13, 2016 - September 12, 2016.

Albania vulnerable to corruption amid lack of independent monitoring institutions

IMF to disburse EUR35.9mn to Albania under EFF

Albania ready to ask for launch of EU accession talks

Parliament in Tirana adopts first crucial justice reform law

Montenegro, Albania and Croatia sign MoU on Ionian-Adriatic gas project

Bankers Petroleum's crude deal to revive Albanian oil refining sector

Audit find in favour of Bankers Petroleum in tax dispute with Albanian government

Key points:

o Inflation speeds slightly to 2% in August

o Albania continues posting budget surplus through July

o Albania's 7-mo trade gap widens 19.7% y/y

o NPL ratio back up to mid-2015 level

o Public debt rises at end-June

o Jobless rate falls to 15.5% in Q2

Table Of Contents

Albania Country Report - August, 2016
1.Executive Summary4

2.Politics5

Albania vulnerable to corruption amid lack of independent monitoring institutions, Transparency International says5

Albania ready to ask for launch of EU accession talks6

Albanian parliament adopts first crucial justice reform law6

Albanian judicial reforms reportedly to cost $40mn per year7

3. Macroeconomic overview8

IMF to disburse EUR35.9mn to Albania under EFF8

4. Real Sector8

4.1. GDP8

Albania's economic growth expected to rise over 4% over medium term8

4.2Inflation9

Albania's inflation speeds slightly to 2% y/y in August9

Albania's producer price deflation eases to 2% y/y in Q210

4.2.3 Construction cost index11

Albania's construction cost index down 0.2% y/y in Q211

4.3 Industry and services11

4.3.1 Energy production12

Albania's net power output up 8.2% y/y in H112

4.3.2 Construction12

Developments in the construction sector remained on the up side in Q1 201612

4.4 Investments13

The dynamics of investments continued to trend upward in Q1 201613

4.5. Labour and retail13

4.5.1 Unemployment and wages13

Albania's jobless rate falls to 15.5% in Q2 - labour force survey13

4.5.2 Retail14

Albania's overall retail sales rose by 4.7% y/y in the first quarter of 2016,14

5. External sector and trade14

5.1 Balance of payment and current account15

Albania's current account gap totaled EUR258mn in Q115

5.2 Trade15

Albania's 7-mo trade gap widens 19.7% y/y15

Albania's IPI drops 1.7% y/y in Q216

5.3 Foreign direct investments17

Albania's FDI falls to EUR152mn in Q117

5.4 External debt17

Albania's gross external debt position was EUR7,735mn in Q117

5.5 Foreign reserves17

Albania's reserve assets totaled EUR2.807bn at end-July17

6. Public sector17

6.1 Budget17

Albania continues posting budget surplus through July17

6.2 Government debt18

Albania's public debt rises at end-June18

7. Foreign exchange19

Albanian lek remains stable against euro19

8. Financial sector and capital markets19

8.1 Banking system19

Albania's NPL ratio back up to mid-2015 level19

Albania's average interest rate on new loans keeps falling y/y in July20

Albania's average interest rate on lek deposits down y/y in July20

Loan portfolio of Albania's commercial banks edges down 0.3% y/y in July21

Growth of Albania's commercial bank deposits speeds up in July21

Albanian central bank to introduce new regulations for SLAs22

8.2 Interest rate and bond market23

Albania raises EUR26.5mn in two-year T-bonds23

8.3 Money supply23

Albania's M3 money supply up 1.3% y/y at end-July23

8.3 Credit rating24

SandP rates Albania at 'B+/B'24

9. Industry and sector news24

Runner up gets Albanian motorway concession after crying foul over corruption24

EU Energy Community says Albania makes progress towards CESEC targets25

73 new HPPs under construction in Albania26

Montenegro, Albania and Croatia sign MoU on Ionian-Adriatic gas project27

Albania's imports of oil up by 20% y/y in January-July27

Albanian imports of iron/steel from Germany rise following Kurum's bankruptcy28

Albania's insurance market up 3% y/y in January-July28

Albania's voluntary pension funds' net assets up 19.7% from end-2015 at end-June29

Foreign visitors in Albania up 24.3% y/y this summer29

Net profit of Albanian insurance market down 20.3% y/y in 201530

Number of active mobile users in Albania rises slightly y/y at end-Q230

10. Major Corporate News31

Chinese authorities approve Geo-Jade's acquisition of Bankers Petroleum31

Nord Pool interested in planned Albanian electricity exchange31

Bankers Petroleum's crude deal to revive Albanian oil refining sector32

SunandWind Energy Corporation applies for renewable energy projects in Albania32

Audit finds in favour of Bankers Petroleum in tax dispute with Albanian government33

EBRD to provide unfunded risk sharing instrument to Societe Generale Albania34


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