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Bosnia Country Report - September, 2014

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 29 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from September 5 until October 6, 2014 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Ratings agency S&P has affirmed its credit rating on Bosnia at B/B, confirming the stable outlook. The report provides the agency's GDP growth projection for Bosnia as well some other rating highlights.

The country's bigger entity, the Federation, said its GDP recorded a 0.6% annual drop in the second quarter of 2014, reversing from a revised 2.8% annual hike in the previous quarter.

In this period, most international organisations revised down their GDP growth forecasts for Bosnia, saying the economy will not expand by more than 1.0% in 2014 due to the mid-May floods.

The report also includes detailed information about the upcoming elections in the country, which will take place on October 12.

On the corporative front, Hungarian low-cost airliner Wizz Air plans to expand its operation in the country, opening a base at the Tuzla Airport, as well as to launch three flights by the summer of 2015 from the Sarajevo airport. In addition, German dairy producer Meggle also want to expand in Bosnia and revealed plans to invest in building a logistics distribution centre and a second plant.

The report also contains information about the signed agreement between four Balkan countries to gradually work on cutting roaming prices in order to reduce them to the level of EU tariffs within three years.



Key points:

oCPI remained on a downward trend for a 13th consecutive month in August, dropping 0.6% y/y as food prices continued to drop.

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production contracted 4.5% y/y in August, reversing from the 4.0% annual growth in July as the overall output shrank by 5.7% in the month.

oThe current account deficit widened 38% y/y in the first half of 2014, mainly on the back of higher foreign trade gap and lower services income from abroad. The country's net international investment position (NIIP) narrowed 5.6% to minus BAM 14.96bn (EUR 7.65bn) in 2013, according to latest available figures, as external assets increased at a faster rate than external liabilities.

Table Of Contents

Bosnia Country Report - September, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

SandP affirms Bosnia's credit rating at B/B, outlook at stable - table5

EBRD slashes Bosnia's 2014 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% on floods6

Is Bosnia heading to another post-election deadlock after Oct 12 vote7

REAL SECTOR12

1.GDP12

Bosnia's Federation GDP shrinks 0.6% y/y in Q2 201412

2.Inflation13

Bosnia's PPI turns to 0.1% annual growth in Aug 201413

Bosnia's consumer deflation softens to 0.6% in August 201413

2. Industry and Trade14

Bosnia's industrial production swings to 4.5% y/y decline in August 201414

Bosnia's retail sales growth slows to 0.8% y/y in Aug 201415

4. Tourism15

Bosnia's foreign tourist arrivals drop 2.7% y/y in Jan-July 201415

5. Labour Market16

Bosnia's unemployment rate stays at 27.5% in April 2014 - Labour Force Survey16

Bosnia's average net wage edges up 0.8% y/y to EUR 427 in July 201416

Bosnia's jobless rate stays at 43.8% in July 2014 - employment agency17

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY17

Bosnia's consolidated budget surplus widens to EUR 151.7mn in H1 201417

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue increases 4.8% y/y in Jan-Sept 201418

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 4.2% y/y to EUR 2.05bn in Jan-Aug 201419

Bosnia's state-level budget posts EUR 43mn surplus in H1 201419

Bosnia's Federation H1 consolidated budget surplus widens 62% y/y to EUR 105mn20

Russia agrees on EUR 76mn budget support loan to Bosnia's Serb Republic20

Bosnia's Federation plans EUR 56mn in domestic debt issues in Q4 201421

Bosnia's Federation sells EUR 10.1mn of nine-month T-bills21

Bosnia's Federation sells EUR 10mn of nine-month T-bills21

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells EUR 15.7mn of four-year T-bonds22

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells EUR 4.74mn of nine-month T-bills22

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION22

Bosnia's FX reserves growth quickens to 13.7% y/y at end-July 201422

Bosnia's bank assets growth speeds up to 5.9% y/y at end-July 201423

Growth in Bosnia's bank deposits quickens to 10% y/y at end-July 201424

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth slows to 7.1% y/y in July 201424

EXTERNAL SECTOR25

Bosnia's current account gap widens 38% y/y to EUR 505.9mn in H1 201425

Bosnia's FDI up 8.6% y/y to EUR 101mn in Jan-July 2014 - Directorate for Economic Planning26

Bosnia's negative investment position narrows 5.6% to EUR 7.65bn in 201326

Bosnia's 8-mo trade gap increases 12.3% y/y to EUR 2.45bn27

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS28

Hungary's Wizz Air plans to open base in Bosnia's Tuzla in mid-201528

Germany's Meggle plans second dairy plant in Bosnia28

Four Balkan states sign deal to cut roaming prices to EU levels in three years29

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