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Montenegro Country Report - September, 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from September 1 until September 30, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Montenegro during this period.

Montenegro's economic growth should remain stable at 3.2% in 2016, the same as last year, according to the World Bank's latest Southeast Europe Regular Economic Report (SEERER), issued on September 27.

Three opposition parties in Montenegro - the Socialist People's Party (SNP), a party newly established by the former leader of the Democratic Front, Demos led by Miodrag Lekic and Reform Action (URA) - have agreed to run jointly in the October 16 general elections.

Montenegro's ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) will not form a coalition with a new partner in advance of the October 16 general election. However, the DPS said it would include two representatives of its long-term coalition member, the Liberal Party (LP), on its list of parliamentary candidates, as in previous elections.

Montenegro will discuss a new loan worth $90mn for 2017 with representatives of the World Bank at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October.

Montenegro's tourism revenue is expected to exceed EUR1.5bn per year by 2026, according to the country's Tourism Minister Branimir Gvozdenovic.

Montenegro's President Filip Vujanovic has signed into law amendments to the law on conversion of Swiss franc loans to euro. Meanwhile, the Montenegrin arm of Addiko Bank (formerly Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank) said it will resort to international arbitration over amendments to the law on the conversion of Swiss franc loans.



Key points:

oCPI deflation softened to 0.5% y/y in August

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production increased 8.1% y/y in August

oThe foreign trade gap widened by 12.9% y/y to over EUR1bn in the first seven months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - September, 2016
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

2.POLITICS6

Three Montenegrin opposition parties form coalition ahead of general elections6

Montenegro's ruling DPS says will not attract new coalition partner for October general election6

Montenegro's high court accepts second deal with former President Marovic on Budva affair7

Montenegro's anti-corruption body launches proceedings against main opposition parties8

3.MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW9

Montenegro to seek to borrow $90mn from the World Bank for 20179

4.REAL SECTOR10

4.1.GDP, forecasts10

Montenegro's economy to grow 3.2% in 2016, World Bank says10

Montenegro's GDP growth speeds up to 2.7% y/y in second quarter11

Montenegro's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4% in 2015 - final figures11

4.2.Inflation12

Montenegro's PPI turns to fall in August12

Montenegro's consumer price deflation cools to 0.5% y/y in August13

Montenegro's HICP flattens y/y in August13

4.3.Industry and trade14

4.3.1.Industrial production14

Montenegro's industrial sales rise 1.7% y/y in August14

Montenegro's industrial output rises 8.1% y/y in August14

4.4.Labour and retail15

4.4.1.Unemployment and wages15

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 17.7%15

Montenegro's unemployment rate falls to 17.5% in Q2, Labour Force Survey shows15

Montenegro's monthly average net wage grows 5.2% y/y in August16

4.4.2.Retail16

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 2.6% y/y in July16

5.EXTERNAL SECTOR AND TRADE17

5.1.Balance of payments17

Montenegro's H1 current account gap widens 35.7% y/y to EUR661.6mn17

5.2.Trade18

Montenegro's 7-mo trade gap widens 12.9% y/y18

5.3.Foreign direct investment (FDI)18

Montenegro's net FDI down 46.1% in January-July18

5.4.External debt19

Montenegro's public debt reaches 60.6% of GDP at end-June19

6.PUBLIC SECTOR20

6.1.Budget20

Montenegro's 7-mo budget gap shrinks 58.7% y/y to EUR108.4mn20

Montenegro will not need budget revision, Deputy PM Lazovic says20

7.FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS21

7.1.Banking system21

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows to 6.6% y/y in August21

Montenegro's bank deposits growth slows to 7.8% y/y in August22

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.48% in August23

7.2.Stock market23

Montenegro Stock Exchange turnover more than doubles y/y in August23

7.3.Credit ratings24

Moody's downgrades Montenegro's rating to B1 on negative outlook, SandP revises outlook to negative24

8.INDUSTRY AND SECTOR NEWS25

Montenegro expects tourism revenue to exceed EUR1.5bn a year by 202625

Montenegro's President Vujanovic approves amendments to CHF loan conversion bill26

Montenegro issues radio frequency licences to three mobile operators26

9.MAJOR CORPORATE NEWS27

Addiko Bank to seek international arbitration over Montenegro's CHF loan conversion bill27

Eni-Novatek starts offshore oil, gas exploration in Montenegro28

EUR100mn to be invested in Montenegro's Lustica Bay resort by spring 201829

Montenegro's EPCG inks deal with Skoda Praha on new power plant unit30

10.MISC31

Human rights organisations protest against detention of Montenegrin journalist31

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