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Montenegro Country Report - October, 2016

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 29 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from October 1 until October 30, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Montenegro during this period.

The political parties that will form Montenegro's new ruling coalition are expected to complete negotiations within two days, according to Dusko Markovic, who is the Democratic Party of Socialists' (DPS) candidate for the country's new prime minister. Markovic was nominated after the DPS gained the highest number of votes in the October 16 general election.

Meanwhile political analysts have forecast that Montenegro's veteran Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who has backed off from leading a new government after the October 16 general election, will most likely run for president in 2018.

Serbian special police have found proof that Serbian citizens were planning a coup in Montenegro, Serbia's Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said. He told a press conference that the security services had found proof of planned illegal activities in Montenegro that had been prepared in Serbia.

Montenegro's economy is expected to post the highest growth, of 5.1%, among the countries in Emerging and Developing Europe this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in the October issue of its World Economic Outlook (WEO). The forecast was revised upwards compared to the 4.7% projected in the April WEO.



Key points:

oCPI deflation softened to 0.1% y/y in September

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production increased 4.4% y/y in September

oThe foreign trade gap widened by 18.7% y/y to EUR1.32bn in the first nine months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - October, 2016
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

2.POLITICS5

Montenegro's new government to be agreed in two days, PM nominee Markovic says5

Djukanovic likely to run for Montenegrin presidency in 20185

Montenegro's DPS nominates Dusko Markovic for new PM7

Serbia finds proof of coup attempt in Montenegro9

Preliminary results confirm election victory for Montenegro's ruling DPS10

Montenegro's interior ministry secretary signs electoral roll11

3.MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW12

Montenegro to post highest GDP growth in emerging Europe in 2016, IMF says12

4.REAL SECTOR13

4.1.GDP, forecasts13

Montenegro's GDP growth speeds up to 2.7% y/y in second quarter13

4.2.Inflation13

Montenegro's HICP turns to growth in September13

Montenegro's consumer price deflation softens to 0.1% y/y in September14

Montenegro's PPI deepens annual fall in September15

4.3.Industry and trade15

4.3.1.Industrial production15

Montenegro's industrial output slows growth in September15

Montenegro's industrial sales plunge in September16

4.4.Labour and retail16

4.4.1.Unemployment and wages17

Montenegro's monthly average net wage grows 5% y/y in September17

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 18.29%17

4.4.2.Retail18

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 2.9% y/y in August18

5.EXTERNAL SECTOR AND TRADE19

5.1.Balance of payments19

Montenegro's H1 current account gap widens 35.7% y/y to EUR661.6mn19

5.2.Trade19

Montenegro's 9-mo trade gap widens 18.7% y/y19

5.3.Foreign direct investment (FDI)20

Montenegro's net FDI down 46.1% in January-July20

5.4.External debt20

Montenegro's public debt reaches 60.6% of GDP at end-June20

6.PUBLIC SECTOR21

6.1.Budget21

Montenegro's 8-mo budget gap sinks 86% y/y to EUR33.6mn21

7.FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS22

7.1.Banking system22

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.61% in September22

Montenegro's bank deposits growth accelerates to 8.8% y/y in September22

Montenegro's bank assets growth accelerates to 7.2% y/y in September23

Montenegro's banks expected to lower interests on loans next year24

Montenegro's NPL ratio falls to 11.4% in August24

Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 11.2% y/y to EUR262.6mn at end-August25

7.2.Stock market25

Montenegro Stock Exchange turnover rises 50.7% y/y in September25

7.3.Credit ratings26

Moody's downgrades Montenegro's rating to B1 on negative outlook, SandP revises outlook to negative26

8.MAJOR CORPORATE NEWS27

Czech Skoda Praha to find alternative financing for new power plant construction in Montenegro27

China's CRBC wants to build second stretch of Bar-Boljare motorway in Montenegro28

Krnovo wind farm in Montenegro to start operations in early 201729


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