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Croatia Country Report - October, 2015

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY





This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between October 7 and November 6, 2015.

In the beginning of November, the European Commission raised its 2015 growth forecast for Croatia's economy to 1.1% from 0.3% projected in May. The growth should be supported by increasing external demand and a halt in the domestic demand contraction. The 2016 outlook was also revised up to 1.4% from 1.2% projected in the spring forecast.

The World Bank is less optimistic for this year, expecting 0.9% growth. However, the new forecast represents an improvement compared to the 0.5% growth projection made in June. The EBRD also upgraded this year's growth forecast for Croatia to 0.9% from the previously projected 0.5%.

The Croatian central bank is the most optimistic, expecting 1.2% economic expansion in 2015. In July, it was expecting only 0.5% growth.

The report also provides details on the latest developments in the tender for the development of a LNG terminal on the Croatian island of Krk and reveals the results of an opinion poll ahead the general elections scheduled for November 8.

It also mentions Croatia's ranking in the latest Doing Business Report of the World Bank.





Key Points:





o Croatia's consumer prices fell 0.8% y/y in September, after dropping 0.6% the previous month. The working-day adjusted industrial output rose 5.4%, speeding from 2.8% in August. The annual growth of the first nine months of the year reached 2.3% y/y.

o The unemployment increased to 16.2% in September from 15.9% in the previous two months. The average net monthly wage rose 4.2% in August, slowing from a 3.8% hike in July.

o January-August trade gap widened 0.5% y/y as exports rose at a faster pace than imports.

o Government debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 85.7% in the second quarter of the year from 87.7% in the previous quarter

Table Of Contents

Croatia Country Report - October, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW6

EC raises Croatia's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 1.1%6

EBRD raises to 0.9% Croatia's GDP growth forecast for 20157

World Bank forecasts 0.9% growth in Croatia in 20157

REAL SECTOR8

1. GDP, Inflation8

Croatia's central bank raises GDP growth outlook8

Croatia's economy to expand 0.3% in 2015 - ErnstandYoung8

Croatia's consumer prices fall 0.8% y/y in September8

Croatia's economic sentiment improves in October9

2. Industry and Trade10

Croatia's industrial output growth speeds up in September10

Croatia's retail sales growth accelerates in September10

Croatia's construction works index down 0.5% y/y in August11

Croatia's industrial sales fall in August11

3. Labour Market11

Croatia's unemployment rate rises to 16.2% in September11

Croatia's average net monthly salary rises by real 4.2% y/y in August12

One in six unemployed Croatians finds jobs in second quarter - Eurostat13

4. Tourism13

Tourist arrivals to Croatia rise 11.8% y/y in September13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Croatia's state debt falls to 85.7% of GDP in Q2 - Eurostat13

Croatia sells EUR184mn worth of kuna, euro T-bills, beats target14

Croatia's M4 money supply up 4.6% y/y to EUR37.9bn at end-September14

Croatia's 2014 budget deficit at 5.6% of GDP, gross debt at 85.1% of GDP - revised data15

Croatian central bank slashes lombard, discount rates15

Croatia's January-August central govt deficit drops 25% y/y16

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION16

Austria's Erste rides CEE recovery to swing to profit in Jan-Sep16

Croatian central bank accepts all bids in weekly reverse repo auction18

Croatian insurers' premium income rises 2.4% y/y in January-September18

Intesa Sanpaolo turns to 9-mo net loss in Croatia19

Zagreb bourse's turnover rises 16% m/m in October19

Slovenia calls for bank depositors from Bosnia and Croatia to verify claims dating to breakup of Yugoslavia20

Croatian mandatory pension funds' assets up 11.2% y/y in September20

Croatian bank rehabilitation agency takes over management of Jadranska Banka20

Croatian banks ask Constitutional Court to assess legality of Swiss franc loans conversion21

EXTERNAL SECTOR22

Croatia's trade gap widens to EUR4.8bn in January-August - revised data22

Croatia's gross foreign debt rises 0.9% m/m in July22

Croatian c-bank foreign reserves up 11% y/y to EUR13.4bn23

Croatia attracts EUR1bn in FDI so far this year23

STRUCTURAL REFORMS24

Croatia accepts Avenue Group bid for EUR100mn tourism project24

Croatia drops one place in World Bank's 2016 Doing Business ranking25

Croatia announces gas price cuts ahead of general elections25

Slovakia's JandT Group reportedly planning to take over Croatian conglomerate Adris Grupa26

Croatia's Podravka makes buyout offer for Slovenia's Zito27

Croatia's LNG Hrvatska extends deadline for LNG terminal bidding27

INA-MOL could replace Shell in Bosnian exploration project28

POLITICS29

Croatia's main political parties neck-in-neck in general elections race29

Croatia won't rule out building fences to manage migrant flow31

Hungary shuts border with Croatia32

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