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Bulgaria Country Report - November, 2015

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period since November 15, 2015.

Standard & Poor's affirmed on December 11 its BB+/B long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Bulgaria with a stable outlook. Fitch affirmed on December 4 Bulgaria's sovereign credit rating at BBB-, the lowest rung on its investment grade ladder, with stable outlook.

The country's economy expanded by 2.9% y/y in Q3, the National Statistics Office (NSI) said on December 4, confirming its flash estimate.

The combined business climate indicator declined by 0.5 points m/m in November after rising by one point m/m in October. The industrial production growth accelerated slightly to 1% y/y in October from 0.8% y/y in September. The construction production narrowed 5.2% y/y in October, after falling 3% y/y in September. The retail sales (at constant prices) decreased 1.3% y/y in October after falling 2.5% y/y the month before.

The parliament adopted at second and final reading the 2016 budget late on December 2, setting the next year's deficit target at 2% of GDP.

Key points:

oThe consumer price deflation narrowed to 0.4% y/y in November from 0.6% y/y in October

oBulgaria reported a budget gap of BGN521mn (EUR266mn) for November, turning the outcome for the first 11 months of the year to a deficit of BGN457mn, or 0.5% of GDP, the finance ministry said in a preliminary estimate

oThe current account surplus widened to EUR1.36bn in January-September from EUR1.03bn in the same period of 2014

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Country Report - November, 2015


SandP affirms Bulgaria at BB+/B with stable outlook, lifts 2015 growth forecast5

Fitch keeps Bulgaria's investment grade rating, lifts growth outlook, alerts of fiscal slippage5

Bulgaria's average per capita income up 5.6% y/y, expenditure up 1.9% y/y in Q36



Bulgaria's Q3 GDP growth confirmed at 2.9% y/y6

2. Inflation7

Bulgaria's CPI deflation softens to 0.4% y/y in November7

Bulgaria's annual PPI deflation deepens to 3.8% in October8

3. Industry and Trade9

Bulgaria's business climate worsens in November9

Bulgaria's industrial output growth speeds to 1% y/y in October9

Bulgaria's industry expects to cut investments by 2.4% in 2016 - survey10

Bulgaria's construction output contraction deepens in October10

Bulgaria's retail sales contraction narrows in October11

4. Labour Market12

Bulgaria's unemployment rate climbs to 9.5% in October - labour agency12

Bulgaria's unemployment rate drops to 8.3% in Q3 - labour force survey12

Bulgaria's Q3 labour productivity data mixed12

5. Tourism13

Bulgaria's accommodation revenue rises 4.2% y/y in October13

Foreign tourists to Bulgaria up 17.2% y/y in October13


Bulgaria turns to budget deficit at end-November14

Bulgarian parliament adopts 2016 budget15

EU says will not punish Bulgaria for 2014 fiscal slippage15

Bulgaria's fiscal reserve rises 1.6% in October15

Bulgaria sells EUR33mn of 10-year T-bonds, yield drops16

Bulgaria sells below-target EUR13.5mn of 3-year T-notes despite ample demand16

Bulgaria reopens 20-year Eurobond, raises EUR50mn at 3.987% yield16

Bulgaria sells EUR36mn of 10-year T-bonds, yield rises17

Bulgaria's government debt growth speeds to 25.7% y/y in October17


Bulgarian banking sector profit rises 35% y/y in January-October18

Oliver Wyman withdraws appeal of tender for Bulgarian banks asset quality review18

Bulgaria's M3 growth accelerates in October, domestic credit contraction moderates18

Bulgaria's deposit, lending interest rates mixed in October19


Bulgaria's current account surplus widens 32% y/y in Jan-Sept20

FDI in Bulgaria rise 26% y/y in January-September21

Bulgaria's foreign trade deficit narrows 47% y/y in January-October21

Bulgaria's gross external debt drops 11.2% y/y in September22

Bulgaria's FX reserves rise 1.9% in November23


Bulgaria's ruling coalition starts to fray23

Table 1 GDP, % y/y real, seasonally-adjusted7

Table 2 CPI, % y/y7

Table 3 Domestic market PPI, % y/y9

Table 4 Bulgaria consolidated budget, BGNmn14

Table 5 Fiscal reserve, BGNmn16

Table 6 Government debt, EURmn17

Table 7 Money supply, domestic credit, loans19

Table 8 Current account, EURmn21

Table 9 Foreign trade, FOB/FOB, BGNmn22

Table 10 Gross external debt, EURmn23

Figure 1 Bulgaria CPI, PPI8

Figure 2 Industrial output10

Figure 3 Construction output11

Figure 4 Retail sales11

Figure 5 Unemployment rate12

Figure 6 Average interest rates on new euro loans20

Figure 7 Foreign trade22

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