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Croatia Country Report - November, 2015

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 38 pages



This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between November 7 and December 4, 2015.

In the beginning of November, the Croatian central bank confirmed the economy expanded by a real 2.8% y/y in the third quarter of the year, registering the fourth quarter of consecutive growth. This is the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2008.

Croatia's economy is expected to expand 0.9% this year and in 2016, according to a forecast of the Croatian banking association HUB issued in November.

The report also reveals the results of the general elections held on November 8 and the outcome of the negotiations between the main parties and coalitions.

It also shows Croatia's latest decisions regarding the migrants entering its territory and mentions Croatia's ranking in the latest Paying Taxes study by global consultancy PwC and the World Bank Group.

The report provides details on INA's plans regarding its filling stations network business and names the possible air carriers interested in the privatisation process of Croatian flag carrier Croatia Airlines.









Key Points:





o Croatia's consumer prices fell 0.9% y/y in October, slightly deepening from the 0.8% decline in the previous month.The working-day adjusted industrial output rose 6.4% y/y in October, accelerating from a 5.4% annual hike in the previous month.

o The unemployment increased to 17.2% in October from 16.2% in September. The average net monthly wage rose 4.4% in September, accelerating from a 4.2% hike in August.

o January-September trade gap narrowed 1.6% y/y as exports rose at a faster pace than imports.


Table Of Contents

Croatia Country Report - November, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW5

Banks see Croatian economy 0.9% up in 20155

REAL SECTOR5

1. GDP, Inflation5

Croatia's GDP growth confirmed at 2.8% y/y in third quarter5

Croatia's agricultural producer prices fall 0.8 % y/y in Q36

Croatia's consumer prices fall 0.9% y/y in October6

CEE sentiment improves in November7

Decline in Croatian producer prices eases in October8

2. Industry and Trade8

Croatia's industrial output growth speeds up in October8

Croatia's retail sales growth accelerates in October9

Croatia's industrial sales rise in September9

3. Labour Market10

Croatia's unemployment rate rises to 17.2% in October10

Croatia's average net monthly salary rises by real 4.4% y/y in September10

4. Tourism11

Tourist arrivals to Croatia rise 3% y/y in October11

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY11

Croatia sells EUR112mn worth of kuna, euro T-bills, beats target11

Croatia's M4 money supply up 5.1% y/y to EUR37.7bn at end-October12

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION12

Croatia banking sector turns to pre-tax loss in January-September12

Share of bad loans in Croatian banking sector down to 17% in January-September13

Croatian central bank accepts all bids in weekly reverse repo auction13

Croatian insurers' premium income rises 1.8% y/y in January-October13

EBRD signs agreement to participate in Zagreb Stock Exchange's recapitalisation14

Zagreb bourse's turnover falls 31% m/m in November15

Value of new contracts signed by Croatia's leasing firms down 11% y/y in January-September15

Croatian mandatory pension funds' assets up 13% y/y in October16

Bank deleveraging in most of CEE has finally ended, Vienna Initiative report says16

Banks fear another bashing in Central Europe17

RBI forecasts 2015 profit after restructuring delay22

EXTERNAL SECTOR24

Croatia's trade gap narrows 1.6% y/y in January-September24

Croatia's gross foreign debt falls 3% m/m in August25

Croatian c-bank foreign reserves up 12.6% y/y to EUR14.2bn26

STRUCTURAL REFORMS26

Croatia's Petrokemija invites investors to start due diligence26

Croatia's Podravka increases stake in Slovenia's Zito to 86.8%26

Croatia's INA signs $300mn revolving credit facility agreement27

Lufthansa, Aegean and Turkish Airlines reportedly interested in Croatia Airlines27

Croatia's INA to spin off filling stations network28

Croatia drops two places in Paying Taxes 2016 survey28

Hungary's MOL might seek to increase stake in Croatia's INA29

POLITICS30

Croatian new parliament fails to elect speaker30

Former Croatian PM Sanader released from custody31

Biden calls on Western Balkans to improve cross-border cooperation32

Croatian parliamentary negotiations complicated by formation of new party within Most33

Croatia to accept only refugees coming from war zones34

Ruling SDP loses Croatia election but opposition HDZ fails to win it34

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