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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - November, 2016

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 27 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from November 1 until November 30, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia & Herzegovina is among the countries assessed by its citizens to have the most severe corruption problems, according to a survey of Transparency International on Europe and Central Asia.

Three Western Balkan countries - Bosnia & Herzegovina, Albania and Macedonia - are among the top nine in terms of the percentage of emigrants, according to 2015 data from the United Nations, the Pew Research Center reported.

The government of Bosnia & Herzegovina said on November 10 it has approved a draft agreement with Russia on the settlement of a $125.2mn debt owed by the former USSR to the Balkan state when it was part of former Yugoslavia.

Bosnia & Herzegovina should focus on improving the business environment in the country in order to help reduce the jobless rate and boost FDI inflows, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2017 from an estimated 3.1% this year, according to the government's economic projections for 2017-2019, adopted on November 10.



Key points:

oCPI deflation eased to 0.7% in October

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production increased 4.5% y/y in October

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 3.6% y/y to BAM5.55bn (EUR2.84bn) in the first ten months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - November, 2016
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

2.POLITICS6

Croatian defence minister reportedly among Bosnian prosecutors' war crimes suspects6

Bosnia's Republika Srpska starts preparations for celebration of banned Republic Day7

Bosnia among countries with most severe corruption problems, TI survey shows7

Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia among top 9 countries with highest emigration level8

Bosnia, Russia agree on repayment of $125.2mn Soviet-era debt8

Bosnia needs to make progress on political, economic criteria, EC report says9

3.MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW10

IMF urges Bosnia to focus on business environment to boost employment, FDI10

4.REAL SECTOR11

4.1.GDP, forecasts11

Bosnia's economic growth to speed up to 3.4% in 2017, government says11

EBRD lowers Bosnia's 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.7%12

4.2.Inflation12

Bosnia's industrial producer prices edge up 0.1% y/y in October12

CPI deflation in Bosnia cools to 0.7% y/y in October13

4.3.Industry and trade14

4.3.1.Industrial production14

Bosnia's industrial production growth accelerates to 4.5% y/y in October14

4.3.2.Construction volume15

Bosnia's building permits rise 10.6% y/y in Q315

Works Bosnian construction firms abroad drop 3.4% y/y to EUR16.4mn in Q315

4.4.Labour and retail16

4.4.1.Unemployment and wages16

Bosnia's net wage rises 1.1% y/y in September16

4.4.2.Retail16

Bosnia's retail sales growth cools to 7.1% y/y in September16

5.EXTERNAL SECTOR AND TRADE17

5.1.Balance of payments17

Bosnia's Q1 current account gap expands 64.9% y/y to EUR183.3mn17

5.2.Trade17

Bosnia's 10-mo foreign trade deficit narrows 3.6% y/y17

5.3.Foreign direct investment (FDI)18

Bosnia's net FDI more than doubles y/y to EUR66.7mn in Q1 201618

5.4.External debt18

Bosnia's foreign debt falls 0.2% y/y to EUR4.4bn at end-June18

5.5.Foreig reserves19

Bosnia's FX reserves grow 14.1% y/y at end-September19

6.PUBLIC SECTOR20

6.1.Budget20

Bosnia's central govt adopts 2017 budget with higher spending20

6.2.Government debt20

Bosnian Federation raises EUR8.1mn from 12-month T-bills issue at negative yield20

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR10.2mn 9-month T-bills issue at negative yield21

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells out EUR12.8mn 5-year T-bond issue21

7.FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS21

7.1.Banking system21

Bosnian banks face difficulties after EU puts country on blacklist21

Bosnia's bank assets grow 4% y/y in September22

Bosnian bank deposits grow 7.4% y/y at end-September23

Bosnia's M1 money supply up 14.3% y/y at end-September23

7.2.Credit ratings24

SandP affirms Bosnia's B/B rating with stable outlook24

8.MAJOR CORPORATE NEWS25

CID launches buyout bid for 60.09% stake in Bosnian tobacco maker FDS25

Bosnia's Brod refinery net loss deepens sharply in January-September26

Bosnia's EPBiH signs deal with China's Eximbank on new unit at Tuzla TPP26

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