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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - November, 2015

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 32 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from November 6 until December 5, 2015 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia is at an early stage of achieving European standards, according to the EC report on the country issued on November 10. The report assessed that the country needs to make significant efforts in most of the policy areas in order to further align with the EU acquis, including in financial control as well as statistics where the country is at an early stage and major steps are needed to address outstanding priorities.

Bosnian authorities need to complete their 2016 budget drafts and finalise a number of reform plans in order to comply for new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The leaders of Bosnia's new ruling coalition have agreed that members of the newest partner - Alliance for a Better Future (SBB), which joined after the previous coalition split in June - will participate in the central-level government.

Although Bosnia has advanced in legislation preventing money laundering and terrorist financing, the country needs to further improve it in practice, according to the latest report of MONEYVAL.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) boosted its 2015 growth projection for Bosnia to 2.8% in the November edition of its Regional Economic Prospects from 2.5% in the May edition.



Key points:

oCPI deflation stayed at 1.8% y/y for the second month in a row in October

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production in Bosnian Federation increased by 3.7% y/y in October

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 8.0% y/y to BAM5.7bn (EUR2.9bn) in the first ten months of 2015

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - November, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

EBRD raises Bosnia's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.8%6

Bosnia's DEP cuts 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, sees it rising to 3.1% in 20167

2. Inflation7

Bosnia's CPI deflation holds at 1.8% y/y in October7

Bosnian Federation CPI falls 1.5% y/y in October8

Bosnian Federation industrial PPI declines by 1.7% y/y in October9

Bosnian Serb Republic's CPI deflation holds at 2.1% y/y in October9

Bosnian Serb Republic industrial PPI rise 0.1% y/y in October10

3. Industry and Trade10

Growth in Bosnian Federation's industrial production accelerates in October10

Bosnian Federation's retail sales turn to 0.5% y/y fall in October11

Bosnian Serb Republic industrial production swings to 0.3% y/y growth in October11

4. Tourism12

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia rise 30.4% y/y in January-September12

Bosnian Serb Republic's foreign tourist arrivals rise 16.6% y/y in January-October12

5. Labour Market13

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate stays at 43.2% in August13

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate falls to 43% in September13

Bosnia's number of unemployed falls 1.5% y/y in September - stats office13

Bosnia's average net wage inches up 0.3% y/y in September14

Bosnian Federation real net wage grows 1.8% y/y in September14

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY15

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 2.2% y/y to EUR2.7bn through October15

Bosnian Federation adopts 2016 budget bill with 7.9% higher fiscal framework15

Bosnian Federation public revenue rises 4.7% y/y through October16

Bosnian Federation's 9-mo budget revenue below target by 35%16

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR10.2mn six-month T-bills issue16

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR35.8mn in seven-year T-bonds17

Bosnian Serb Republic revises 2015 budget, adopts 2016 bill17

Bosnian Serb Republic's public revenues rise 5% y/y through October18

Bosnia's Serb Republic sells six-month T-bills worth EUR10.2mn, yield rises19

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION19

Bosnia bans loans in foreign currency but euro to prevent borrowers19

Bosnia's FX reserves growth boosts to 11% y/y at end-October20

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth speeds up to 11.7% y/y at end-October20

Bosnia's bank assets growth speeds up to 3.2% y/y in October21

Bosnia's bank deposits growth improves to 7.6% y/y at end-October21

Bosnian Serb Republic banking system ups net profit to EUR25.5mn through September21

EXTERNAL SECTOR22

Bosnia's net FDI down 17.7% y/y in H122

Bosnia's foreign trade deficit narrows 8.0% y/y through October22

Bosnia's foreign debt grows 3.1% y/y to EUR4.3bn at end-September23

Bosnian Serb Republic's foreign trade deficit shrinks 17.9% y/y through October23

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS24

Drug producer Bosnalijek's 9-mo net profit surges 33.5% y/y to EUR2.2mn24

Bosnian government gives green light on EUR50mn loan from EIB for roads24

IMF says Bosnian authorities need to complete 2016 budget drafts, reform plans for new deal24

EBRD lends Bosnia EUR11mn for Plava Voda project25

EC approves EUR57mn funds for cross-border cooperation between Croatia, Bosnia and Montenegro26

Bosnian coal miner Banovici signs deal with China's Dongfang on 350MW TPP project26

Italy's Metallehge opens EUR41mn silicon processing plant in Bosnia27

Bosnia's Federation mulls plan to take EUR80mn EBRD loan for motorway projects28

POLITICS28

Bosnia is at early stage of achieving EU standards - EC report28

Bosnian new ruling coalition partner to join state-level government by end-November30

MONEYVAL says Bosnia needs to improve money laundering, terrorist financing prevention31

Bomb thrown at police station in Bosnian town, police suspect terrorist attack32

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