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Montenegro Country Report - November, 2016

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 29 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from November 1 until November 30, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Montenegro during this period.

The European Commission said on November 9 that Montenegro has made good progress on its EU path and the pace of accession negotiations will continue to be determined by tangible results, especially on fighting corruption and organised crime.

Montenegro's parliament approved a new government, led by Prime Minister Dusko Markovic, one of the most loyal allies of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) leader Milo Djukanovic, on November 28.

Montenegro's special prosecution has extended an ongoing investigation into an alleged coup attempt, including in the list of suspects two Russians connected to the opposition Democratic Front (DF).

Montenegro's opposition Democratic Front (DF) plans to call a new round of anti-government protests in December, aiming to provoke the appointment of an interim government and a new general election.

Montenegro's central bank will recommend to the government to finance current public spending only from current revenues, and make cuts to "irrational spending" where this can be done without threatening the living standard of the population or the economic growth.



Key points:

oConsumer prices increased by 0.2% y/y in October, ending a seven-month declining streak

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production swung to a 13.3% y/y fall in October

oThe foreign trade gap widened by 13.1% y/y to EUR1.29bn in the first ten months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - November, 2016
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

2.POLITICS6

Montenegro's parliament endorses new DPS-led government amid opposition boycott6

Montenegro's prosecution reportedly finds link between coup plot organisers and opposition DF7

Montenegro opposition to call anti-government protests in December8

EC says Montenegro makes good progress on EU path9

Russian nationalists planned to kill Montenegrin PM Djukanovic, prosector claims9

3.MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW11

Montenegro should cut "irrational public spending", central bank governor says11

4.REAL SECTOR11

4.1.GDP, forecasts11

EBRD keeps Montenegro's 2016 GDP growth forecast at 4.0%12

4.2.Inflation12

Montenegro's HICP inflation accelerates in October12

Montenegro's consumer prices resume growth in October13

Montenegro's PPI deflation cools in October13

4.3.Industry and trade14

4.3.1.Industrial production14

Montenegro's industrial sales fall 5.5% y/y in October14

Montenegro's industrial output turns to decline in October14

4.3.2.Construction volume15

Number of building permits in Montenegro increases 30.4% y/y in Q315

Value of construction works in Montenegro jumps 37.3% y/y in Q315

4.4.Labour and retail16

4.4.1.Unemployment and wages16

Montenegro's monthly average net wage up 5% y/y in October16

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 19.59%16

4.4.2.Retail17

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 2.4% y/y in September17

5.EXTERNAL SECTOR AND TRADE17

5.1.Balance of payments17

Montenegro's 9-mo current account gap more than doubles y/y to EUR417.5mn17

5.2.Trade18

Montenegro's 10-mo trade gap widens 13.1% y/y18

5.3.Foreign direct investment (FDI)19

Montenegro's net FDI down 54.6% in January-August19

5.4.External debt19

Montenegro's public debt reaches 60.6% of GDP at end-June19

6.PUBLIC SECTOR20

6.1.Budget20

Montenegro's parliament adopts urgent budget revision20

Montenegro's 9-mo budget gap shrinks 90.6% y/y to EUR24mn21

6.2.Government debt22

Montenegro sells EUR80.41mn T-bonds to cover budget deficit22

7.FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS22

7.1.Banking system22

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 6.73% in October22

Montenegro's bank deposits growth cools to 6.9% y/y in October23

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows to 6% y/y in October24

7.2.Stock market24

Montenegro Stock Exchange turnover more than doubles y/y in October24

7.3.Credit ratings25

Moody's downgrades Montenegro's rating to B1 on negative outlook, SandP revises outlook to negative25

8.INDUSTRY AND SECTOR NEWS26

EIB provides EUR120mn for projects in Montenegro26

9.MAJOR CORPORATE NEWS27

Four foreign companies plan to bid for 30% stake in Montenegro's Luka Bar27

CEAC launches litigation proceedings against Montenegro over KAP bankruptcy27

Czech Skoda Praha to lose Montenegro power plant deal unless it secures new financing28

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