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Romania Energy Report - Electricity - Q4, 2014

  • December 2014
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 31 pages

The report covers the period since August 1 to December 15 - including time series up to full-Q3, 2014. It also includes the detailed energy balances for the year 2013 [released in the fall of 2014]. At the end of the report, you can check the content of the previous similar report - issued on July 30.



LONG-TERM INDUSTRY SCENARIO. Romania's energy sector is built on relatively abundant primary resources - moderate crude oil reserves, significant natural gas reserves [nearly self-sufficiency and offshore potential], abundant coal deposits and significant wind power potential. Resources are depleting, but the energy-intensive industries are also shrinking as the energy becomes more expensive. There exist a functioning power market and the potential for export of power is robust - yet not supported by sufficient transfer capacities. There exist on the other hand robust potential for the development of such connections [for power and gas] - supported and actually required by the EU directives. The government as well as other policy-makers lack any firm strategy for the sector. In the absence of such internal drive, country's policies fully rely on the EU directives - meaning adequate but slow response to challenges and acceptance of rather global [than local] optimisation. Excessive green energy support created investment euphoria - but part if the support was already reversed prompting protests from investors.



ONGOING STORIES - POWER. Romania has joined the single day-ahead market of Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and Hungary. Local producers seek export opportunities. Moldova seems a good opportunity, given their dependence on imports from Ukraine. Hidroelectrica opens offices in Hungary and Serbia.



Key Points:

oRomania confirms 3.2% y/y GDP growth in Q3, expects 2-5% growth rates in coming years

oEC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers

oIPO at CE Oltenia power generator scheduled for November 2015

oQuintana of US interested in brown coal / power company CE Hunedoara

oUse of primary energy resources up 2.3% y/y in Q3 as more oil refined

oNet use of primary energy resources contracted by 4% y/y to 12.8mn toe in the H1 2014 ...

o... - while the gross intake of raw energy resources increased by 3.4% y/y to 15.4mn toe.

oDomestic power production up 8% y/y in the 12M ending Sep-14

oHydropower output surges by 26% y/y and accounts for 28.5% of total

oWind power generation increased by 13% y/y and accounted for 7.6% of total

oRomania achieves day-ahead electricity market coupling with CZ-SK-HU area

oEnergy market regulator moves to standardise power trading

oNuclearelectrica accepts sole bid from Chinese company for EUR6.5bn nuclear plant expansion

oRomania invites Hungary to join EUR1bn Tarnita reversible hydropower project

oRomania wants Moldova as partner in nuclear power project

oChina Huadian Engineering ready to invest in EUR1bn coal-fired power plant in Romania

oSale of Enel's holdings in Romania remain in limbo

oCEZ not to exit Romanian market, but also plans no takeovers

Table Of Contents

Romania Energy Report - Electricity - Q4, 2014
Executive Summary4

1. MACRO UPDATE5

Romania confirms 3.2% y/y GDP growth in Q3 driven by industry, ITC.5

GDP recovers slowly, fiscal gap widens in 2015 - EU Autumn Forecast.6

Industrial output up 3.7% y/y in October - trends updated.6

1.1REGULATORY7

EC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers...7

... but asks Romania lift conditions set to industrial users in exchange for lower green energy surcharges.7

Romania's power market regulator cuts profitability of distribution companies.7

1.2 STRUCTURAL REFORMS - PRIVATISATION8

IPO at CE Oltenia power generator scheduled for November 2015.8

Quintana of US interested in brown coal / power company CE Hunedoara.8

1.3 RAW ENERGY RESOURCES8

Use of primary energy resources up 2.3% y/y in Q3 as more oil refined.8

1.4 DOMESTIC USE OF RAW ENERGY10

1.5 DOMESTIC ENERGY PRICES13

2. POWER15

Romania achieves day-ahead electricity market coupling with CZ-SK-HU area.15

Energy market regulator moves to standardise power trading.15

2.1 QUARTERLY UPDATED STATISTICS16

2.2 POWER MARKETS19

2.3 USE OF ELECTRICITY IN ECONOMY21

2.4 CORPORATE ROUND-UP23

Nuclearelectrica accepts sole bid from Chinese company for EUR6.5bn nuclear plant expansion.23

Romania's Hidroelectrica reports 28% higher profit, 24% more power produced in Jan-Nov.23

Power trader EFT sues Romania's Hidroelectrica for EUR80mn.24

Romania invites Hungary to join EUR1bn Tarnita reversible hydropower project.24

Romania wants Moldova as partner in nuclear power project.24

China Huadian Engineering ready to invest in EUR1bn coal-fired power plant in Romania.25

Sale of Enel's holdings in Romania remain in limbo.26

Romania's Nuclearelectrica considers buying some of Enel's local holdings.26

CEZ not to exit Romanian market, but also plans no takeovers.27

Appendix: Previous issue's Content29



Figure 1: Quarterly GDP, 2000=1005

Figure 2: Industrial output, swda 2010=1007

Figure 3: Raw energy resources use; thous. tonnes oil equivalent, quarterly.9

Figure 4: The breakdown of raw energy resources; 2013.9

Figure 5: The breakdown of raw energy resources; 20069

Figure 6: The breakdown of raw energy resources, 9M: 2014 vs. 20139

Figure 7: Domestic energy intake of energy, thousands toe; annual, last quarterly/annual data.10

Figure 8: Annual change in the annual average energy prices - nominal terms14

Figure 9: Annual change in the annual average energy prices - expressed in euros14

Figure 10: Power generation, by source (mn MWh).15

Figure 11: Dynamics of main electricity market segments [TWh].16

Figure 12: Electricity use in economy vs. GDP.17

Figure 13: Use of electricity in households.17

Figure 14: Prices, volumes on futures and DAM markets [RON]21

Figure 15: Price in future vs. day-ahead markets [avg., EUR/MWh]21

Figure 16: Graphic representations of the electricity use by economic sector.22



Table 1: Jan-Sep, 2014 GDP dynamics5

Table 2: Gross energy intake dynamics; 9M: 2014 vs 200610

Table 3: Raw energy resources: consumption, production, self-sufficiency; latest annual data.11

Table 4: Raw energy resources: consumption, production, self-sufficiency; latest quarterly data.11

Table 5: Primary energy resources, original balance from INS adjusted for the exports of electricity and petroleum products; annually 2000-, thousand tonnes oil eq..12

Table 6: Consumer prices - energy, expressed in nominal terms, real terms, euros and US dollars [annual averages and y/y].13

Table 7: Structure of the domestic electricity market [TWh]; by free/regulated and residential/non-residential segments.16

Table 8: Electricity simplified balance quarterly, mn MWh.17

Table 9: Wholesale electricity market breakdown, annual latest quarterly.19

Table 10: Future and DAM markets; annual, latest quarterly - volumes, prices [RON]20

Table 11: Future and DAM markets; annual, latest quarterly - volumes, prices [EUR]20

Table 12: Use of electricity, by main economic sectors; mn KWh; annually.21

Table 13: Energy balance - electricity [2007-2013, MWh]28


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