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Croatia Country Report - December, 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 20 pages

This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between December 5 and January 5, 2016.

In December, both the World Bank and Croatia's central bank revised up their growth projections for 2015. The World Bank said it now expects GDP to expand by 1.5% in 2015, compared to 0.9% expected in October. The central bank raised its 2015 projection to 1.7% from 1.2% forecast in October.

The central bank raised also its 2016 outlook - to 1.8% from 1.5%.

The report also reveals the latest developments in the negotiations for the formation of a new government and the name of the agreed Prime Minister designate.

It also provides details on Croatia's issuance of a a HRK6bn (EUR786.5mn) 11-year bond on the domestic market, as well as the latest decisions of the central bank regarding the banks' required foreign reserves.

The report also shows the results of the tender for the development of a LNG terminal with a nominal capacity of 6bn cubic metres on the Croatian island of Krk.









Key Points:





o Croatia's consumer prices fell 0.9% y/y in November, the same as in the previous month. The working-day adjusted industrial output rose 2.7% y/y in November, slowing from a 6.4% annual hike in the previous month.

o The unemployment increased to 17.7% in November from 17.2% in October. The average net monthly wage rose 4.3% in October, slowing from a 4.4% hike in September.

o January-October trade gap narrowed 1.6% y/y as exports rose at a faster pace than imports.

o Croatia's current account surplus widened to EUR3.89bn in the third quarter of last year from a revised surplus of EUR19mn in the previous quarter.

Table Of Contents

Croatia Country Report - December, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW5

World Bank forecasts 1.5% growth in Croatia in 20155

REAL SECTOR5

1. GDP, Inflation5

Croatia's central bank raises GDP growth outlook5

Croatia's consumer prices fall 0.9% y/y in November6

CEE sentiment worsens in December6

Decline in Croatian producer prices eases in November7

2. Industry and Trade7

Croatia's industrial output growth eases in November7

Croatia's retail sales growth accelerates in November8

Croatia's industrial sales rise in October8

3. Labour Market9

Croatia's unemployment rate rises to 17.7% in November9

Croatia's average net monthly salary rises by real 4.3% y/y in October 20159

Labour costs in Croatia inch up 0.1% y/y in third quarter10

4. Tourism10

Tourist arrivals to Zagreb, Adriatic coast rise 8.2% y/y in January-November10

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY11

Croatia sells EUR206.8mn worth of kuna T-bills, beats target11

Croatia's current account surplus widens in third quarter 201511

Croatia's M4 money supply up 5.3% y/y to EUR37.7bn at end-November12

Croatian central banks loosens requirements on foreign reserves for banks12

Croatia issues HRK6bn 11-year bond on domestic market12

Croatia's January-October central government deficit drops 18% y/y13

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION13

Zagreb bourse's turnover rises 69% m/m in December13

Croatian mandatory pension funds' assets up 13% y/y in November14

EXTERNAL SECTOR14

Croatia's trade gap narrows 1.6% y/y in January-October14

Croatia's gross foreign debt falls 1.8% m/m in September15

Croatian central bank foreign reserves up 12.4% y/y to EUR14bn at end-November15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS16

Croatia's LNG Hrvatska receives seven offers for LNG terminal development16

Croatia's Adris Grupa plans EUR522.8mn investments by 201817

Croatia's Valamar Riviera completes takeover of 100% in Hoteli Baska17

POLITICS17

Heads of HDZ and Most to be vice presidents of Croatia's new government17

Croatia's conservatives, Most party propose pharma executive for PM18

Croatia files complaint at EU over Slovenia's border fence19

Croatian anti-graft agency indicts Zagreb mayor for corruption20

View This Report »

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