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Croatia Country Report - December, 2014

  • January 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 19 pages

This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between December 9, 2014 and January 5, 2015.

In the beginning of December, the Croatian Statistics Office confirmed the country's GDP contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2014. This was the 12th consecutive quarter the Adriatic country reported economic decline.

Later in the month, the central bank's governor Boris Vujcic said he expects the country's economy to stagnate or slightly grow by 0.2% in 2015 backed by increasing private consumption, recovering investments and a positive contribution from net exports. As for the 2014 economic performance, the central bank expected a decline of 0.5%, smaller than the 0.6% drop projected

in October.

The report presents the recommendations made by the World Bank to Croatia on how to accelerate its economic growth and adjust fiscal deficit. It also offers details about the results of the presidential elections organised in the country on December 28.

The report provides details on the results of the state tender for offshore hydrocarbon exploration and contains information about Croatia's tender to award the concession of the management and maintenance of its motorways, a sensitive topic in the country.

Key Points:

o CPI inflation slowed to 0.2% y/y in November from 0.4% y/y a month earlier. The working-day

adjusted industrial output rose 2.8%, slightly accelerating from 2.7% in October. The annual growth of the eleven months of the year reached 1% y/y.

o The unemployment rate climbed to 19.2% in November from 18.7% in October. This was the third consecutive month of increase in the rate after seasonal hiring kept pulling it down in the previous six months. The average net monthly wage inched up 0.1% in October, following a 0.5% hike in September.

o January-October trade gap shrinks 0.4% y/y thanks to higher exports.

Table Of Contents

Croatia Country Report - December, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 5

Croatia's central bank expects 0.2% GDP growth in 2015 5

World Bank advises Croatia on how to accelerate growth, reduce deficit 5

REAL SECTOR . 6

1. GDP, Inflation 6

Croatia's Q3 GDP drop confirmed at 0.5% y/y - stats office 6

Croatia's CPI eases to 0.2% y/y in November 7

Croatia's PPI falls 2% y/y in November 8

2. Industry and Trade 9

Croatia's industrial output growth accelerates to 2.8% y/y in November 9

Croatia's industrial sales drop 1.7% y/y in October 10

Croatia's retail sales growth accelerates in November 11

Decline in construction works' volume in Croatia narrows to 5.8% y/y in October 11

3. Labour Market 11

Croatia's unemployment rate rises to 19.2% in November 11

Total hourly labour costs in Croatia fall 0.3% y/y in Q3 -Eurostat 12

Croatia's average net monthly salary ticks up by real 0.1% y/y in October 12

4. Tourism 13

Tourist arrivals in Croatia rise 7.4% y/y in November- first results 13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY 13

Croatia to auction EUR71.7mn worth of kuna T-bills on January 7 13

Croatia sells EUR83.5mn worth of kuna T-bills, above plan 13

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 14

Croatian lender HPB scraps plans for EUR60mn bond issue due to lack of interest 14

Croatian insurers premium income falls 5.4% y/y to EUR1bn in January-November 14

Net assets of Croatian open-end investment funds rise 1.9% m/m at end-November 15

Croatian mandatory pension funds' assets up 14% y/y at end-November 15

EXTERNAL SECTOR 15

Croatia's January-October trade gap shrinks 0.4% y/y to EUR5.9bn 15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS 16

Croatia awards 10 licenses for offshore hydrocarbon exploration 16

IFC to advise Croatia in finding strategic partner for Croatia Airlines - report 16

Croatia receives non-binding bids in motorway concession tender 17

POLITICS 18

Croat president Ivo Josipovic, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic to meet in runoff election 18

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