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Bosnia and Herzegovina Report - December, 2014

  • January 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 16 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from December 6, 2014 until January 5, 2015 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Bosnia's economic outlook remains uncertain due to the limited donors support.

Meanwhile, the European Commission will provide Bosnia additional EUR41mn to help the country recover from severe floods in May. The funds should be used for housing rehabilitation, SMEs and local economic development in flood affected areas.

The country's bigger entity, the Federation, said its GDP swung to a 0.4% y/y growth in the third quarter of 2014 from a revised contraction of 0.5% y/y in the previous quarter. On the other hand, the Serb Republic's economy contracted a real 0.1% y/y in the third quarter of 2014, narrowing from a revised decline of 1.3% y/y in the previous three months.

The Serb Republic has approved the new government following the October 12 elections. The candidate of the leading party in the Serb Republic - the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) - Zeljka Cvijanovic, remains the Prime Minister for a second term.

On the corporative front, China's state-owned Eximbank and Bosnia's Federation government have signed an agreement for a EUR667.8mn credit to be used for the construction of the 450MW unit 7 at the thermal power plant Tuzla.



Key points:

oFederation's CPI increased by 0.3% y/y in November, the same as the month before.

oThe Federation's dropped by 1.5% y/y in November, narrowing from a 1.8% annual decrease in October. Serb Republic's industrial output increased by 2.1% y/y in November, decelerating from a 6.6% y/y growth in October.

oBosnia's central bank gross foreign reserves rose 11% y/y to BAM7.644bn (EUR3.911bn) at end-October 2014, easing from 12.1% y/y hike at end-September

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Report - December, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

Bosnia's Serb Republic parliament approves new govt led by Zeljka Cvijanovic5

EU to provide Bosnia EUR41mn for recovery from floods5

IMF says Bosnia's economic outlook remains uncertain, to decide on loan tranche in Jan 20156

Bosnia to receive two IMF loan tranches by Feb-2015 if meets criteria - Federation's FinMin Krajina6

REAL SECTOR7

1.GDP7

Bosnia's Federation GDP rises 0.4% y/y in Q37

Bosnia's Serb Republic GDP contracts 0.1% y/y in Q37

2.Inflation8

Bosnia's Federation industrial PPI inches up 0.2% y/y in November8

Bosnia's Federation CPI holds at 0.3% y/y in November8

2. Industry and Trade9

Bosnia's Federation industrial production down 1.5% y/y in November9

Bosnia's Serb Republic industrial production up 2.1% y/y in November9

Bosnia's Serb Republic retail trade turnover up 14.7% y/y in November10

Bosnia's Federation foreign trade deficit at EUR186.2mn in November10

Bosnia's Serb Republic foreign trade deficit at EUR1bn in Jan-Nov10

4. Tourism11

Bosnia's Serb Republic tourist arrivals rise 2.6% y/y in Jan-Nov11

5. Labour Market11

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate edges down to 43.6% in October11

Bosnia's Federation number of employed persons up 2.8% y/y in October11

Bosnia's average net wage edges up 0.1% y/y to EUR426 in October12

Bosnia's Federation average net wage falls 0.8% y/y in October12

Bosnia's Serb Republic average net wage up 1.9% y/y to EUR423 in November12

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY12

Bosnia approves EUR121.2mn temporary state financing for January-March 201512

Bosnia's FX reserves rise 11% y/y at end-October13

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth cools to 8.4% y/y at end-Oct13

Bosnia's Federation 9-mo budget surplus increases to EUR148mn13

Bosnia's Serb Republic government endorses 2015 budget draft14

Bosnia's Serb Republic raises EUR7.6mn from three-month T-bills, yield drops14

Bosnia's Serb Republic fails to sell EUR7.7mn in T-bills on low demand15

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION15

Bosnia's bank assets growth slows to 4.5% y/y at end-November15

Bosnia's Federation 9-mo banking system profit at EUR63.4mn15

Bosnia's bank deposits increase 8.6% y/y to BAM15.26bn at end-November15

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS16

China's Eximbank to lend EUR667.8mn to Bosnia for 450MW thermal power project16

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