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Montenegro Country Report - December, 2014

  • January 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 16 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of December 6, 2014 - January 5, 2015.

Montenegro's GDP expanded by a real 1.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2014, speeding up from 0.3% y/y growth in the previous three months, according to preliminary statistics office data. The country's consumer prices remained flat y/y in November after falling by 0.5% y/y in October due to a 1% annual increase of food prices.

Montenegro has signed three agreements with Germany's development bank KfW for loans worth combined EUR40mn to be used for investments in energy efficiency. The country also signed a financial agreement with the European Union that would allow the country get EUR5.6mn for human resources development projects under the EU's Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA II).

Key points:



o Jan-Nov budget gap narrows 78.4% y/y to EUR25.34mn.

o Foreign tourist arrivals to Montenegro increase 12% y/y in November.

o Industrial output falls 19.8% y/y in November.

o Average lending interest rates in Montenegro fall to 9.9% in November.

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - December, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

GDP growth speeds up to 1.3% y/y in Q34

2. Inflation5

Consumer prices flatten y/y in November5

EU harmonised deflation softens to 0.3% y/y in November5

PPI inflation inches up to 1.1% y/y in November6

3. Industry and Trade7

Industrial output falls 19.8% y/y in November7

Industrial sales inch up 0.4% y/y in November7

Retail sales growth brakes to 0.1% y/y in October7

Monthly average net wage falls 0.4% y/y in November8

5. Tourism9

Foreign tourist arrivals to Montenegro increase 12% y/y in November9

FISCAL SECTOR9

Jan-Nov budget gap narrows 78.4% y/y to EUR25.34mn9

Montenegro sells EUR6mn of 182-day T-bills at lower yields10

Public debt reaches EUR1.96bn at end-October10

Montenegro to allow 30-day deferred customs duty payment in 201511

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION11

Bank assets growth speeds up to 4.4% y/y at end-November11

Bank deposits growth speeds up to 9.1% y/y in November12

Average lending interest rates in Montenegro fall to 9.9% in November12

Montenegro's c-bank lowers limit on T-bill share in mandatory reserves to 35%13

EXTERNAL SECTOR13

Jan-Nov trade gap widens 2.4% y/y on lower exports13

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS14

Montenegro receives EUR40mn loan from KfW for energy efficiency14

Montenegro to get EUR5.6mn EU funding for HR projects14

UAE's Royal Group seeks to open or buy bank in Montenegro14

Montenegro's parliament approves construction of Bar-Boljare motorway15

Turkey's Ziraat Bank to apply for licence in Montenegro within days - deputy PM Lazovic15


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