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Montenegro Country Report - December, 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 23 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of December 6-January 5, 2015.

Montenegro's government has set as its goal to complete all its obligations and be prepared to become a member of the European Union by 2021, according to Aleksandar Pejovic, the chief negotiator for Montenegro's accession to the EU.

The European Union (EU) opened on December 21 two new chapters in the country's negotiations - on transport policy (chapter 14) and on energy (chapter 15).

The European Commission (EC) adopted a new cross-border cooperation programme for Italy, Montenegro and Albania, worth nearly EUR93 million. Out of the total, some EUR79mn will come from the European Regional Development Fund and the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA).

The former president of Serbia and Montenegro, Svetozar Marovic, was arrested on December 17 in connection with a wide-reaching corruption investigation in his home town of Budva.

Montenegro's telecommunications agency EKIP will create all necessary conditions for the entry of a fourth mobile phone operator in 2016.





Key points:



o The budget deficit increased more than three times y/y to EUR266mn in the first eleven months of 2015 from EUR83.9mn a year earlier

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 11.5% y/y to 19,137 in November

o Industrial output boosted its annual growth to 23.7% in November

o Bank assets rose 13.4% y/y to EUR3.524bn at end-November

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - December, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3

REAL SECTOR4

1.GDP4

Montenegro's c-bank revises up 9-mo GDP growth to 3.9%4

Montenegro's GDP per capita slightly improves to 41% of EU average in 2014 - Eurostat4

Montenegro's economy rises 3.8% through September - c-bank5

2.Inflation6

Montenegro's HICP inflation slows further in November6

Montenegro's PPI inflation remains flat y/y in November6

Montenegro's CPI inflation slows further in November7

3.Industry and Trade8

Montenegro's industrial sales decline eases in November8

Montenegro's 11-mo trade gap widens 6.0% y/y8

Montenegro's industrial output accelerates annual growth in November9

Montenegro's retail sales growth slows further to 2.7% y/y in October10

4.Labour Market10

Montenegro's monthly average net wage rises 1.0% y/y in November10

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 16.42% as of December 7 - employment agency11

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 16.5% in Q3 - Labour Force Survey11

5.Tourism12

Foreign tourist arrivals to Montenegro rise 11.5% y/y in November12

FISCAL SECTOR12

Montenegro's parliament endorses 2016 budget with 7.2% deficit12

Montenegro's 11-mo budget gap up more than three times y/y to EUR266mn on high capital spending13

Montenegro's budget deficit to reach 7.7% of GDP in 201514

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION15

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows to 13.4% y/y in November15

Montenegro's bank deposits growth slows to 16.9% y/y in November16

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.36% in November16

Montenegro's c-bank lowers limit on T-bill share in mandatory reserves to 25%16

EXTERNAL SECTOR17

Montenegro's net FDI inflow nearly doubles y/y through October17

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS18

Montenegro to speed up talks with Czech Export Bank on financing of TPP Pljevlja unit18

EC adopts EUR93mn cross-border cooperation programme for Albania, Italy and Montenegro18

Montenegro to set conditions for entry of fourth mobile phone operator in 201619

EU approves EUR1bn financial package for Western Balkans, Turkey19

Montenegro to initiate construction of EUR70mn resort in Becici20

Montenegro's deputy finance minister Radonjic resigns to head commercial bank - report20

Montenegro to invest over in EUR200mn in agriculture by 202020

POLITICS21

Montenegro hopes to join EU in 202121

EU, Montenegro open chapters on transport policy, energy in accession talks21

Former president of Serbia and Montenegro arrested in corruption case22

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