1. Market Research
  2. > Financial Services
  3. > Banking Market Trends
  4. > Romania Country Report - December, 2015

Romania Country Report - December, 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

The report covers info as of January 07.



Moody's rating agency changed the outlook of Romania's government rating to positive from stable on December 11, while affirming the rating at Baa3. The agency notes at the same time the risks posed by the fiscal easing and wage potentially rising faster than productivity.



Romania's GDP increased by 3.6% y/y in Q3, in line with flash estimates, the statistics office announced on December 4. The growth rate thus accelerated from 3.4% y/y in Q2.Growth was driven in Q3, on the utilisation side, by household consumption (6.3% y/y) - which stimulated imports (3.1% up y/y) and - on the formation side - the value added accumulated in the sector of services (trade, car repair, logistics and horeca - 8.9% up y/y).



The president of Romania's independent Fiscal Council, Ionut Dumitru, has expressed doubts about the sustainability of the 4% growth expected next year. Growth will ease in future, driven by the lack of investments, Dumitru explained.

Under the final version of its Autumn Forecast, the state forecasting body CNP projected the country's GDP to gradually accelerate from 4.1% next year to 4.7% in 2019. The European Commission, in its Autumn Forecast dated November 6, expects next year's 4.1% growth to ease to 3.6% y/y in 2017.



Key Points

oMoody's upgrades Romania's sovereign outlook to positive

oGDP up 3.6% y/y in Q3 on consumption, better tax collection

oFiscal Council head questions sustainability of Romania's record GDP growth forecast for 2016

oWorld Bank expects 3.9% growth this year in Romania

oIndustrial output flat y/y in October after robust 4.3% y/y growth in Q3 (2.7% up y/y in Jan-Oct)

oElectricity consumption 6.2% up y/y in January-October

oConstruction works in Romania up 9.7% y/y in October

oRetail sales rise by 15% y/y in Romania, in November

oCPI inflation shifts to negative 1.1% y/y in November from negative 1.6% y/y in October

oNet wages in Romania up real 11.6% y/y in October

oRomania says EU funds absorption surged to 74% in December

oRomania's government posts 0.76% of GDP surplus in Jan-Nov

oGovernment endorses 2016 budget planning, Fiscal Council warns of fiscal slippage

oCentral bank keeps monetary policy at 1.75%, cuts forex required reserves

oECB issues opinion on controversial law on mortgage loans in Romania

oBank loans in Romania 2.3% up y/y on 15.9% more mortgage loans at end-Nov

oUS fund JC Flowers fails to take over Piraeus Bank Romania, abandons takeover plans for Carpatica

oC/A deficit widens by 85% y/y to EUR906mn in Jan-Oct

Table Of Contents

Romania Country Report - December, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

RELATIONSHIP WITH IFIs6

Moody's upgrades Romania's sovereign outlook to positive6

REAL SECTOR6

1. Corporate, structural reforms6

2. GDP, forecasts7

Romania's GDP up 3.6% y/y in Q3 on consumption, better tax collection7

Net investments in Romania up 1.7% y/y in Q39

Fiscal Council head questions sustainability of Romania's record GDP growth forecast for 201610

Romania revises 2014 GDP growth rate up 0.2pp to 3%10

World Bank expects 3.9% growth this year in Romania11

Romania's growth to accelerate to 3.9% in 2016 from 3.7% in 2015 - EandY11

3. Industry, Constructions, Retail12

Industrial output flat y/y in October after robust 4.3% y/y growth in Q312

Construction works in Romania up 9.7% y/y in October13

Retail sales rise by 15% y/y in Romania, in November13

4. Prices, Inflation14

CPI inflation shifts to negative 1.1% y/y in November from negative 1.6% y/y in October14

Industrial price inflation up to minus 2.6% y/y in October15

Electricity consumption 6.2% up y/y in January-October16

5. Labour Market16

Net wages in Romania up real 11.6% y/y in October16

Romania to raise minimum statutory wage by 19% from May17

Romania's ILO unemployment constant y/y at 6.7% in November17

FISCAL SECTOR19

Romania says EU funds absorption surged to 74% in December19

1. Budget Execution20

Romania's government posts 0.76% of GDP surplus in Jan-Nov20

2. Fiscal Policy21

Romania's government endorses 2016 budget planning, Fiscal Council warns of fiscal slippage21

3. Public Debt22

FINANCIAL SECTOR23

Central bank keeps monetary policy at 1.75%, cuts forex required reserves23

ECB issues opinion on controversial law on mortgage loans in Romania24

1.Bank Loan Quality25

Overdue loans in Romanian banks' balances down 17% y/y to EUR5bn at end-October25

2. LOANS, DEPOSITS26

Bank loans in Romania 2.3% up y/y on 15.9% more mortgage loans at end-Nov26

New local currency loans in Romania 29% up y/y in October26

Deposit base of Romanian banks 7.3% up y/y at end-Nov27

3. CORPORATE28

US fund JC Flowers fails to take over Piraeus Bank Romania, abandons takeover plans for Carpatica28

UniCredit Romania sells EUR340mn NPL loans at 92% discount28

Romania's BCR sells EUR1.2bn NPL bundle to Deutsche Bank, IFC and APS29

EXTERNAL SECTOR29

1.Balance of Payments29

C/A deficit widens by 85% y/y to EUR906mn in Jan-Oct29

2. Foreign Trade30

Exports lose momentum, up just 1.2% y/y in October30

Foreign trade gap keeps widening, up 55% y/y in October31

2.External Debt32

Gross external debt up EUR1.3bn in October on Eurobond issue32

3.Forex Reserves32

Forex reserves constant in y/y terms after EUR3bn rise in July-December32





Table 1: EC Autumn Forecast7

Table 2: Industrial production [%, y/y]12

Table 3: Construction Works Volume Index [%, y/y]13

Table 4: Retail Sales Volume Index [% y/y]14

Table 5: Consumer, Producer Prices [%, y/y]15

Table 6: Wages, employment19

Table 7: General government budget [RON mn]21

Table 8: Romania's gross public [RON, EUR bn, % of GDP +breakdown]23

Table 9: Romania CA balance Jan-Oct 2015 [BPM6]30

Table 10: External debt [EUR mn]32





Fig. 1: Seasonally adjusted GDP7

Fig. 2: Drivers of GDP growth, utilisation side [main elements]8

Fig. 3: Drivers of GDP growth, utilisation side [detailed]9

Fig. 4: Drivers of GDP growth, formation side9

Fig. 5: Industrial production [2010=100]12

Fig. 6: Industrial Production, seasonally and workday adjusted [2010=100]13

Fig. 7 Industrial Production, not adjusted, 12-m average y/y13

Fig. 8: Construction Works Index [2010=100]13

Fig. 9: Construction Works, seasonally and workday adjusted [2010=100]13

Fig. 10: Construction Works Volume Index, incl. 12-month average % y/y13

Fig. 11: Retail Sales Index, seas. adj. [2010=100]14

Fig. 12: Retail Sales Index, seas. adj. [2010=100]14

Fig. 13: Consumer Price Index [y/y]15

Fig. 14: PPI vs. CPI [y/y]15

Fig. 15: Industrial production price: domestic vs. external15

Fig. 16: Average net wage [2000=100]17

Fig. 17: Employment vs. unemployment18

Fig. 18: Romania's public debt [% of GDP]22

Fig. 19: Banking system's net profits [EUR]25

Fig. 20: NPL ratio25

Fig. 21: Overdue payments on bank loans26

Fig. 22: Stock of non-gov bank loans [EUR mn]26

Fig. 23: Non-government deposits27

Fig. 24: Foreign trade balance [EUR mn]31

Fig. 25: Rolling 12M exports [EUR mn]31

Fig. 26: Forex Reserves at BNR33


View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Blockchain Technology Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Blockchain Technology Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 5795
  • Industry report
  • January 2017
  • by Transparency Market Research

Global Blockchain Technology Market: Overview Blockchain technology offers a secure, fast, and cheaper medium of carrying out online transaction and online transfer of information without the need of third ...

Mobile Payment Technologies Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Mobile Payment Technologies Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 5795
  • Industry report
  • February 2017
  • by Transparency Market Research

Global Mobile Payment Technologies Market: Overview This report provides an analysis of the global mobile payment technologies market for the period from 2014 to 2024, wherein the period from 2016 to 2024 ...

Top 10 Telecom Technologies - Forecast to 2021

Top 10 Telecom Technologies - Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • February 2017
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Reduction in queuing & transaction time and increased convenience in making low value payments are driving the contactless payment market” The contactless payment market is estimated to grow from ...

Russia Wealth Report 2016

November 2016 $ 4995

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.