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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - February, 2015

  • March 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from February 6 until March 5, 2015 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia's parliament has approved the nominated by the tripartite presidency Denis Zvizdic as the country's new Prime Minister. Several days later, the parliament adopted on February 23 a statement declaring the country's pro-European Union commitment, which includes a plan for political and economic reforms that should speed up its path toward EU membership.

The EBRD plans to approve financing for new projects worth between EUR100mn and EUR200mn in Bosnia in 2015, according to head of the bank in the country, Jan Braun. EBRD will provide financing to 10-20 projects.

Bosnia's government said it expects a real economic growth of 3.4% in 2015, which should further accelerate to 4.1% next year and 4.4% in 2017 thanks to expected lower trade deficit.

On the corporative front, Bosnia's largest power utility Elektroprivreda BiH (EP BiH) said it plans to invest BAM2.1bn (EUR1.1bn) in different projects in 2015-2017, using own funds and external financing. The company will invest in production, distribution, supply, and trade operations, capital infrastructure, mining and other joint projects.

Serbia's energy firm NIS, controlled by Russia's Gazprom Neft, has confirmed commercial stocks of oil in a well in Bosnia's Serb Republic.



Key points:

oCPI deflation deepened further to 0.9% y/y in January from 0.4% y/y in December

oThe retail sales, measured in constant prices, increased by 8.3% y/y in January, speeding up from a 3.8% y/y rise in the previous month due to higher growth of sales of non-food products and automotive fuel

oThe distributive trade turnover increased by 3.7% y/y in Q4, accelerating from a revised 2.5% y/y rise in Q3

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - February, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

Bosnia sees 2015 GDP growth at 3.4%6

2.Inflation6

Bosnia's Federation industrial PPI falls 1.1% y/y in January6

Bosnia's CPI deflation deepens to 0.9% y/y in January6

Bosnia's Federation CPI falls 0.7% y/y in January7

Bosnia's Serb Republic CPI deflation deepens to 1.3% y/y in January8

3. Industry and Trade8

Bosnia's Serb Republic industrial production inches up 0.3% y/y in January8

Bosnia's Federation industrial production declines 1.7% y/y in January9

Bosnia's retail sales growth accelerates to 8.3% y/y in January9

Bosnia's Federation retail sales growth slows to 6.4% y/y in January9

Bosnia's Serb Republic retail trade turnover falls 5.8% y/y in January10

Bosnia's distributive trade turnover up 3.7% y/y in Q410

Bosnia's Federation distributive trade turnover up 5.1% y/y to EUR2.6bn in Q410

4. Tourism11

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia rise 1.5% y/y in 201411

Bosnia's Federation tourist arrivals rise 21.4% y/y in January11

Bosnia's Serb Republic tourist arrivals rise 22.6% y/y in January11

5. Labour Market12

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate stays at 43.6% in December12

Bosnia's number of unemployed falls 1.2% y/y in December - stats office12

Bosnia's Federation number of employed up 2.3% y/y in December12

Bosnia's average net wage up 0.7% y/y to EUR431 in December12

Bosnia's Federation average net wage edges up 0.2% y/y in December13

Bosnia's Serb Republic average net wage edges up 0.2% y/y to EUR415.2 in January13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnia's Serb Republic public revenues rise 7% y/y in January-February13

Bosnia's Serb Republic to introduce two-tier VAT to ease socially vulnerable groups13

Bosnia's Federation plans EUR30.7mn in 182-day T-bills issue in Q1 201514

Bosnia's Serb Republic raises EUR7.6mn from six-month T-bills, yield drops14

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION14

Bosnia's FX reserves rise 10.6% y/y at end-December14

Bosnia's bank assets growth slows to 4.4% y/y at end-December15

Bosnia's bank deposits increase 8.4% y/y to BAM15.5bn at end-December15

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth speeds up to 9.4% y/y at end-December16

EXTERNAL SECTOR16

Bosnia's external public debt rises 9.4% y/y to EUR4.1bn at end-201416

Bosnia's foreign trade deficit shrinks 5.8% y/y in January17

Bosnia's Federation foreign trade deficit narrows 7.2% y/y to EUR124.5mn in January17

Bosnia's Serb Republic foreign trade deficit falls 3.8% y/y to EUR27.6mn in January18

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS18

Bosnia's Serb Republic to set up a fiscal council18

Bosnia's Elektroprivreda BiH plans to invest EUR1.1bn in 2015-201718

Bosnia's power firm RiTE Gacko plans to launch 300 MW thermal plant project in 201518

EBRD to approve up to EUR200mn to Bosnia for new projects in 201519

Serbia's energy firm NIS confirms commercial oil stocks in Bosnia's Serb Republic19

Bosnia's parliament adopts pro-EU declaration19

Bosnia's Serb Republic to invest EUR5.6bn in energy projects by 203020

Bosnia's Federation to launch sale of 14 companies in 201520

Bosnia's Elektroprivreda RS, EBRD to discuss cooperation in renewable energy projects21

Bosnia's SDA party nominates Dino Konakovic for Federation's Prime Minister21

Bosnia adopts 2015-2017 economic reforms programme21

Bosnia's parliament elects pro-EU Denis Zvizdic for Prime Minister23

China's Tianjin seeks to invest EUR511mn in energy projects in Republica Srpska23

Bosnia's Brod refinery says its 2014 net loss nearly halves to EUR12.9mn24

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