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Bosnia & Herzegovina Country Report - February, 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from February 6 until March 5, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia & Herzegovina formally applied on February 15 to join the European Union after several months of delay. The country hopes to get a Euopean Union candidate status in 2017, according to Mladen Ivanic, member of the country's tripartite presidency

The president of Bosnia & Herzegovina's smaller entity, Republika Srpska, has put on hold plans for a controversial referendum on the authority of the state-level judicial institutions. The move was seen by local analysts and politicians as a climbdown by president Milorad Dodik following heavy international pressure.

The Council of Europe's Group of States against corruption (GRECO) criticised Bosnia for the delays in its anti-corruption reform agenda, which were a consequence of the lack of political will and of the fragmented and uncoordinated institutional framework.

Bosnia is expected to launch tenders for the construction of two stretches along the international transport Corridor Vc, worth EUR105mn

Turkish private company Capital Group plans to invest EUR300mn in the construction of photovoltaic power stations in Bosnia.

The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) said it has called for joint actions with the European Union to prevent the financial collapse of Bosnia's public broadcaster, BHRT.



Key points:

oCPI deflation softened to 0.8% y/y in January

oThe retail sales, measured at constant prices, increased by 7.7% y/y in January

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 15.3% y/y to BAM282.8mn (EUR144.5mn) in January

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - February, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1. Inflation6

Bosnia's CPI deflation narrows to 0.8% y/y in January6

Bosnian Federation CPI deflation eases further in January6

Bosnian Federation industrial PPI declines by 1.5% y/y in January6

Bosnia's Republika Srpska CPI deflation eases in January7

Bosnia's Republika Srpska industrial PPI inches down 0.2% y/y in January7

2. Industry and Trade8

Bosnia's retail sales growth slows to 7.7% y/y in January8

Bosnian Federation's retail sales growth slows to 0.6% y/y rise in January8

Bosnian Federation's industrial production turns to decrease in January9

Bosnia's Republika Srpska retail sales rise 12.4% y/y in January9

Bosnia's Republika Srpska Jan industrial production deepens annual decline9

3. Tourism10

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia rise 26.5% y/y in 201510

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnian Federation rise 3.4% y/y in January10

Bosnia's Republika Srpska reports 17.2% y/y increase in foreign tourist arrivals in January11

4. Labour Market11

Bosnia's average net wage ticks down 0.1% y/y in December11

Decline of Bosnia's number of unemployed slows to 1.7% y/y in December - stats office11

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate rises to 42.9% in December12

Bosnian Federation real net wage rises 0.9% y/y in December12

Bosnia's Republika Srpska real wage growth holds at 1.4% y/y in January13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnia raises excise duties on fuels, beer and cigarettes13

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 2.1% y/y to EUR496.5mn through February14

Bosnian Federation to borrow EUR454.5mn from international sources in 201614

Bosnia's Republika Srpska raises EUR11.3mn from 3-year T-bonds14

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells one-month T-bills worth EUR14.6mn15

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells out EUR10.2mn 7-year T-bonds15

Bosnia's Republika Srpska 2-mo public revenues fall 5.0% y/y16

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION16

Bosnia's FX reserves growth slows to 10% y/y at end-December16

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth boosts to 11.9% y/y at end-December17

Bosnia's bank deposits grow 7.5% y/y at end-December17

Bosnia's bank assets rise 3.7% y/y in December18

EXTERNAL SECTOR18

Bosnia's January foreign trade deficit narrows 15.3% y/y18

Bosnian Federation's January foreign trade gap narrows 12% y/y to EUR109.6mn18

Bosnia's Republika Srpska foreign trade deficit sinks 31% y/y in January19

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS19

Bosnia to launch tenders for Vc motorway stretches in H1 - EBRD19

Turkey's Capital Group wants to invest EUR300mn in Bosnian renewable energy projects19

Bosnia's public broadcaster faces financial collapse20

IMF reportedly seeks bankruptcy for Bosnia's Banka Srpste as condition for new deal20

Bosnia, IMF in final talks on new deal21

POLITICS22

Bosnia hopes to get EU candidate status in 201722

President of Bosnia's Republika Srpska puts referendum on hold22

Spat erupts as Bosnia prepares to apply for EU membership24

Bosnia's Republika Srpska urges central govt to abandon key document ahead of EU membership application25

Bosnia formally applies for EU membership26

Bosnian court replaces detention of top politician Radoncic with house arrest28

President of Bosnia's Republika Srpska hit by loan scandal29

Bosnia's prosecution claims top politician Radoncic violates house arrest30

GRECO urges Bosnia to speed up anti-corruption reform31

Bosnian court returns top politician Radoncic to detention32

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