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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - March, 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from March 6 until April 5, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

A UN war crimes tribunal has sentenced former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic to 40 years in jail after finding him guilty of ten of the 11 charges against him. The sentence issued on March 24 includes the time Karadzic has already spent in custody since 2008.

The EU enlargement commissioner Johannes Hahn has urged Bosnia & Herzegovina to adopt by early May a working coordination mechanism and adjust its Stabilisation and Association agreement with Croatia's entry in the bloc in order to give its membership application credibility.

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament said on March 22 that Bosnia & Herzegovina should improve the effectiveness of its fight against terrorism and expressed concerns about high political pressure on judicial institutions.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) affirmed on March 11 its credit ratings on Bosnia & Herzegovina at B/B as it expects that the country will continue to benefit from international financial support. The outlook is confirmed at stable.

On the corporate side, the government of Bosnia & Herzegovina's bigger entity, the Muslim-Croat Federation, has decided to launch the sale of its stake in blue chip pharmaceuticals producer Bosnalijek.



Key points:

oCPI deflation worsened to 1.3% y/y in February

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production declined by 3.3% y/y in January

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 4.2% y/y to BAM793.5mn (EUR405.7mn) in the first two months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - March, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

Bosnia's GDP growth slows to 2.1% y/y in Q4t6

Bosnian Federation's GDP rises 2.9% in 20156

GDP growth accelerates in Bosnia's Republika Srpska7

2. Inflation7

Bosnia's CPI deflation deepens in February7

Bosnia's industrial producer price deflation softens to 1.1% y/y in January8

Bosnian Federation CPI deflation deepens to 1.3% y/y in February8

Bosnian Federation's industrial PPI declines by 2.3% y/y in February8

CPI deflation in Bosnia's Republika Srpska worsens to 1.3% y/y in February9

3. Industry and Trade9

Bosnia's industrial production turns to 3.3% y/y fall in January9

Bosnian Federation's industrial production turns to increase in February10

Bosnia's Republika Srpska retail sales grow by real 19.3% y/y in February10

4. Tourism11

Foreign tourist arrivals in Bosnia rise 7.6% y/y in January11

Bosnia's Republika Srpska reports 12.5% y/y increase in foreign tourist arrivals through February11

5. Labour Market12

Bosnia's average net wage inches up 0.2% y/y in January12

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate stays at 42.9% in January12

Bosnian Federation real net wage rises 0.7% y/y in January13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnia's indirect tax revenue rises 3.3% y/y to EUR762.3mn in Q113

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR15.3mn 6-month T-bills issue14

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR15.3mn 3-month T-bills issue14

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR10.2mn 6-month T-bills issue14

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells six-month T-bills worth EUR7.6mn, yields rise15

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells one-month T-bills worth EUR6.8mn, below target16

Bosnia's Republika Srpska Q1 public revenues fall 3.0% y/y16

Bosnia's Republika Srpska sells six-month T-bills worth EUR12.7mn, above target17

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION17

Bosnia's bank assets slow annual growth in January17

Bosnia's bank deposits grow 7.0% y/y at end-January17

Bosnia's M1 money supply grows 12.1% y/y at end-January18

Bosnia's FX reserves growth slightly improves to 10.8% y/y at end-January18

Bosnian Federation's banking system profit at EUR76.2mn in 201519

Bosnian banking regulator, nine others arrested in EUR63mn bank scam19

EXTERNAL SECTOR20

Bosnia's 9-mo net FDI sinks 33.8% y/y20

Bosnia's 2-mo foreign trade deficit narrows 4.2% y/y20

Bosnian Federation's foreign trade gap up 2.7% y/y to EUR289mn through February21

Foreign trade deficit in Bosnia's Republika Srpska narrows 24.4% y/y through February21

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS22

Bosnia's Brod refinery swings to profit in 201522

SandP affirms Bosnia's B/B ratings on expected international support22

EC to provide EUR67.2mn to Bosnia, Croatia and Montenegro for cross-border cooperation23

Bosnia to put stake in drug producer Bosnalijek up for sale23

Bosnian Federation gives green light to EUR36mn EBRD loan for Corridor Vc construction24

Bosnia's Elektroprivreda HZ BH awards EUR71.9mn wind farm contract to Siemens-led consortiumt25

INA-MOL drops plans to sue Bosnian Federation's govt over Energopetrol capital hike25

Bosnia's BH Airlines faces bankruptcy procedure25

POLITICS26

Foreign affairs MEPs say Bosnia needs to improve fight against terrorism26

EU urges Bosnia to adopt coordination mechanism, adjust SAA by May27

Bosnia's prosecution to interrogate statistics office officials on 2013 census28

Bosnia's ruling SDA and HDZ BiH near agreement on Mostar's new statute28

UN tribunal finds Radovan Karadzic guilty of genocide29

Bosnia divided over Karadzic conviction31

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