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SEE Construction and Real Estate Report - 2015

  • April 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 41 pages

The report covers developments in the SEE construction and real estate sectors in the period from April 2014 till April 2015.

After years of contraction, construction activity expanded in most counties in Southeast Europe in 2014. The expansion was helped by increased demand for construction works amid the recovering economies. Increased use of EU funding also played a significant role as 2014 was the last year countries could use funds under the previous 2007-2013 programming period.

The outlook for the industry's development in 2015 is optimistic with most countries in the region expected to strengthen growth this year amid the recovering EU economies, which are the region's main trading partner. The civil engineering sector is again expected to be better positioned than the buildings construction and the pace of expansion will depend on the absorption of EU funds.

The crisis in Ukraine, however, continues to pose a risk to the European economies, especially those in south-eastern Europe. Economic growth in the region will be negatively affected in case of extended sanctions on Russia.

Commercial property investments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) shrank by 27% in 2014, after jumping 37% the year before. Romania attracted the highest volume of investments of the countries under review in this report. Bulgaria followed, ahead of Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. The outlook for CEE, however, is positive with investment flows seen up 30% to reach $24.4bn in 2015.

The real estate market in SEE countries did not see major developments in 2014. The office market in many of the country stagnated or witnessed limited supply. The retail segment reported mixed results with Albania and Bulgaria adding new supply, while Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia remaining broadly at the levels of 2013.

Table Of Contents

SEE Construction and Real Estate Report - 2015
Executive summary6

REGIONAL OVERVIEW7

Construction activity in most SEE countries returns to growth in 2014.7

Construction output in EU28 up 3% in 20147

CEE property investments shrink 27% in 2014.8

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY9

ALBANIA9

Construction sector's contribution to GDP9

Building permits value down 81% in Q4 20149

Albania's construction cost index up 0.1% y/y in Q4 201410

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA11

Construction works in Bosnia up 6.2 in 201411

Number of completed housing units in Bosnia up 17.8% in 201412

Bosnia construction firms cut works abroad.12

BULGARIA12

Bulgaria's construction sector returns to growth in 201412

Building permits down 2.1% in 201413

CROATIA13

Construction sector's contribution to GDP.13

Croatia's construction output down 6.6% in 201414

Croatia's building permits down 1.5% in 201414

MACEDONIA15

Construction sector one of biggest contributors to Macedonia's 2014 economic growth15

Macedonia's construction works up 49% in 201316

Business sentiment in Macedonia's construction sector improves in Q4.17

MOLDOVA17

Moldova's construction works up 1% in 2014.17

Investments in construction projects up 4.4% in 201418

Construction price index rises 8.1% in Q4 2013.18

MONTENEGRO18

Montenegro's construction sector expands 1.9% in 2014.18

Montenegro building permits up 13.4% y/y in H1 201419

ROMANIA20

Construction works index falls 6.7% in 2014.20

Number of building permits for residential buildings down 0.3% in 201421

Completed housing units down 2.3% in 2014.22

Value added by construction forecasted to resume growth in 2015.23

SERBIA23

Serbia's construction activity shrinks 3.9% in 201423

Building permits up 2.1% in 201424

SLOVENIA24

Slovenia's construction sector expands11.3% in 201424

Value of construction works in Slovenia jumps 19.4% in 201425

Slovenia reduces number of building permits issued in 201425

REAL ESTATE27

ALBANIA27

Albania's office market stagnates in H1 201427

Tirana retail stock increases in 2014.27

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA27

Bosnia's Federation new home prices rise 0.6% in 201428

BULGARIA28

Sofia office market witnesses low new supply in 201428

Retail property market continues expanding in 20114.28

New industrial property supply in Sofia up 3.7% y/y in Q4.29

Home prices resume growth in 201429

CROATIA30

Zagreb's office market adds 19,406 sq m new space in 201430

Zabreb's shopping centre stock sees no new delivery in H2 2014.31

Industrial sector remains least developed real estate sector in Croatia31

MACEDONIA32

Skopje office market sees no new supply in H2 2014.32

Residential real estate sector continues growth in H2 201433

MOLDOVA33

Apartment prices in Chisinau fall by 2.6% in 201433

Prices of long-term hiring of residential property in Chisinau stable in 201433

MONTENEGRO34

Home prices fall 5.5% in 201434

Montenegro's office market lags behind other capital cities in the region - CBRE34

Montenegrin retail stock at just 59,000 sq m35

Residential and mixed-use market35

ROMANIA36

Number of real estate transactions down marginally y/y in 201436

Value of real estate transactions in Q4 estimated at EUR514mn36

Modern retail space deliveries to reach 166,000 sq m in 2015-201637

Romania's office market sees revival after period of limited activity37

SERBIA38

Prices of new apartments up 5.8% in 201438

Vacancy on Belgrade office market continues to fall in 2014 on limited supply, high take-up.38

Belgrade retail market sees no new delivery in 2014.39

SLOVENIA40

Housing prices down 4.4% in 201440

Home sales fall 22% in Jan-Sep 2013.41



Table 1 EU construction output8

Table 2 CEE Property Investments8

Table 3 Albania's Construction Sector GVA9

Table 4 Albania's Building Permits10

Table 5 Albania's Construction Cost Index11

Table 6 Croatia's Construction Sector GVA in constant prices (%, y/y)14

Table 7 Macedonia's Construction Sector GVA16

Table 8 Moldova Construction Sector's GVA17

Table 9 Romania's Construction Sector Contribution to GDP Growth20

Table 10 Construction Sector Performance21

Table 11 Romania's Building Permits22

Table 12 Romania's Completed Homes by Type of Financing22

Table 13 Serbia Construction Sector's GVA23

Table 14 Slovenia's construction sector's GVA (%, y/y)25

Table 15 Slovenia Building Permits26

Table 16 Average home prices in major Bulgarian cities30

Table 17 Residential Property Indices in 2010-2013 (2009=100)37

Table 18 Sale of apartments in Slovenia41



Figure 1 Bosnia's Construction Works11

Figure 2 Bosnia's Construction Works by Type11

Figure 3 Bosnia's Completed Buildings12

Figure 4 Number of Completed Buildings12

Figure 5 Bulgaria's Construction Output13

Figure 6 Bulgaria's Building Permits13

Figure 7 Croatia's Construction Output14

Figure 8 Croatia's Building Permits15

Figure 9 Croatia's Building Permits by Type15

Figure 10 Value of Macedonia's construction works16

Figure 11 Macedonia's Building Permits16

Figure 12 Macedonia's Number of Newly-issued Building Permits17

Figure 13 Moldova Producer Price Indices in Construction18

Figure 14 Montenegro's Construction Output18

Figure 15 Montenegro's Building Permits19

Figure 16 Construction Works Index21

Figure 17 Serbia Construction Works24

Figure 18 Number of Building Permits, y/y change24

Figure 19 Value of Construction Works in Slovenia (%, y/y)25

Figure 20 Average Price of Apartments in New Residential Buildings 34

Figure 21 Annual change in Slovenia Home Prices40

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