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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - April, 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 31 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from April 6 until May 5, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's prime minister Denis Zvizdic said that the government had reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will include a BAM1.05bn (EUR540mn) financial package.

The World Bank forecasted that rising domestic demand will lift Bosnia & Herzegovina's economic growth above 3.0% a year in the medium term. GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% this year, down from an estimated 2.8% in 2015, but should accelerate to 3.1% next year and to 3.5% in 2018.

Bosnia & Herzegovina slipped two positions to 68th out of 180 countries in the 2016 Press Freedom Index from Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

The opposition bloc Savez za Promjene (SZP) is planning a national protest in Bosnia & Herzegovina's smaller entity, Republika Srpska, on May 14 against the authorities' policies which it says have damaged the economy in the entity.

German development bank KfW plans to provide Bosnia & Herzegovina with EUR300mn for energy projects in the coming years.

The Bosnian State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) has reportedly launched a probe at Banka Srpske following media reports that the bank had stolen hundreds of millions of Bosnian marka worth of its clients' savings by investing them in fake companies.





Key points:

oCPI deflation worsened to 1.8% y/y in March

oThe retail sales, measured at constant prices, increased by 6.6% y/y in March

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 3.7% y/y to BAM1.4bn (EUR720mn) in the first quarter of 2016

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - April, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

Domestic demand to speed up Bosnia's economic growth in mid-term, World Bank says6

2. Inflation6

Bosnia's industrial producer price deflation cools to 1.4% y/y in March6

Bosnia's CPI deflation deepens further in March7

Bosnian Federation CPI deflation deepens to 1.8% y/y in March7

CPI deflation in Bosnia's Republika Srpska worsens to 1.8% y/y in March7

Industrial producer prices in Bosnia's Republika Srpska turn to 0.1% y/y growth in March8

3. Industry and Trade8

Bosnia's retail sales growth slows to 6.6% y/y in March8

Bosnian Federation's retail sales growth slows to 3.3% y/y in March8

Bosnian Federation's industrial production rises further in March9

Industrial production in Bosnia's Republika Srpska rises further in March9

Bosnian Federation's industrial PPI declines by 2.4% y/y in March10

4. Tourism10

Tourists in Bosnia's Republika Srpska up 6.4% y/y in Q110

5. Labour Market11

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate inches down to 42.8% in February11

Decline in number of unemployed in Bosnia accelerates further in February, stats office says11

Bosnia's average net wage rises 1.1% y/y in February12

Bosnian Federation real net wage rises 2.6% y/y in February12

Real wage grows 2.6% y/y in March in Bosnia's Republika Srpska13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnian Federation posts EUR7.0mn budget deficit in Q113

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR15.3mn 6-month T-bills issue14

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR15.3mn 3-month T-bills issue14

Bosnian Federation to amend law on gambling tax to boost revenues14

Bosnian Federation's Q1 public revenues rise 9.1% y/y15

Bosnian Federation posts EUR45.9mn budget surplus in 201515

Bosnia's Republika Srpska 4-mo public revenues fall 3.0% y/y15

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION16

Bosnian bank deposits grow 8.6% y/y at end-March16

Bosnia's bank assets speed up annual growth in March to 5.2%16

Bosnia's FX reserves growth rises to 10.2% y/y at end-March16

Bosnia's M1 money supply grows 13.5% y/y at end-March17

Bosnia's c-bank introduces negative interest rate on banks' reserves to boost lending17

Bosnian bank deposits grow 8.8% y/y at end-February18

Bosnia's bank assets increase annual growth in February to 4.8%18

Bosnia's FX reserves growth cools to 9.3% y/y at end-February18

Bosnia's M1 money supply grows 12.1% y/y at end-February19

EXTERNAL SECTOR19

Bosnia's Q1 foreign trade deficit narrows 3.7% y/y19

Bosnian Federation's public debt at EUR3.2bn in Q120

Bosnian Federation's Q1 foreign trade gap up 5.9% y/y to EUR505.4mn20

Foreign trade deficit in Bosnia's Republika Srpska narrows 30.5% y/y in Q121

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS21

Bosnia to borrow EUR65mn from EBRD for road modernisation programme21

Republika Srpska development bank's credit committee disbanded after arrests21

KfW to provide EUR300mn for Bosnia's energy sector22

Bosnian utility EPBiH to invest EUR168mn in local mines in 2016-201822

Bosnia, IMF agree on EUR540mn three-year loan deal, PM Zvizdic says23

Bosnian police launch probe into third bank in Republika Srpska24

IMF confirms Bosnia's 2016 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, raises 2017 expectations26

EU to invest EUR25mn in rule of law, human rights projects in Western Balkans and Turkey26

EBRD, EU to provide EUR24mn for SMEs in Bosnia27

Bosnia mulls selling 19.26% stake in drug producer Bosnalijek27

POLITICS28

Opposition SZP calls protest in Bosnia's Republika Srpska on May 1428

Corrupt judicial system harms media freedom in Bosnia, RSF says29

EP pushes Bosnia to continue key reforms, condemns rampant corruption29

Bosnia's PM Zvizdic urges stats agency to announce 2013 census results30

Bosnia to complete talks with EU on SAA adjustment at end-April, head negotiator says30

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