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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - April, 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 23 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from April 6 until May 5, 2014 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

In April, the IMF revised down its economic growth forecast for Bosnia to 2.3% from previously projected 3.5%. The growth is expected to strengthen to 3.1% next year and to 4% in 2020. The IMF's outlook for this year is slightly more pessimistic than that of the country's central bank which revised its forecast up to 2.6% from 2.5%.

The report provides details about Bosnia's recently approved 2015 budget draft that includes the spending of the state-level institutions and the servicing of the country's foreign debt.

It also contains information about the Council of the European Union's decision to conclude the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Bosnia which is expected to enter into force on June 1. The move will officially unblock the country's path towards the country's preparation for EU accession.

The report offers details about the main business environment obstacles identified by Bosnian companies, according to a survey carried out by the EBRD and the World Bank.





Key points:

oDeflation eased to 0.2% y/y in March from 0.7% y/y in February.

oBosnia's industrial output rose by 0.4% y/y in March, reversing a 1.1% y/y decline in February, thanks to improved performance in all sectors.

oBosnia's registered unemployment rate remained unchanged at 43.8% for the second month in a row in February.

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - April, 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

IMF cuts Bosnia's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%6

Bosnia's c-bank revises 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%6

2.Inflation7

Bosnia's CPI deflation softens to 0.2% y/y in March7

Bosnia's Federation CPI inches up 0.3% y/y in March8

Bosnia's Serb Republic CPI deflation softens to 0.8% y/y in March9

Bosnia's Federation industrial PPI edges down 0.5% y/y in March9

2. Industry and Trade9

Bosnia's industrial production turns to 0.4% y/y growth in March9

Bosnia's Federation industrial production declines 1.5% y/y in March10

Bosnia's Serb Republic industrial production rises 3.7% y/y in March10

Bosnia's retail sales growth slows to 6% y/y in March10

Bosnia's Federation retail sales growth slows to 3.9% y/y in March11

4. Tourism11

Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia rise 37% y/y in February11

Bosnia's Federation tourist arrivals rise 25% y/y in March11

Bosnia's Serb Republic tourist arrivals rise 19.6% y/y in Q112

5. Labour Market12

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate stays at 43.8% in February12

Bosnia's number of unemployed falls 1.2% y/y in February - stats office12

Bosnia's Federation number of employed up 1.1% y/y in February12

Bosnia's average net wage falls 0.3% y/y to EUR419 in February13

Bosnia's Federation average net wage rises 0.6% y/y in February13

Bosnia's Serb Republic average net wage falls 0.4% y/y to EUR425 in March13

Bosnia's jobless rate stays at 43.8% in July 2014 - employment agency13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnia's central government adopts 2015 budget draft with 12.9% lower spending13

Bosnia's Serb Republic public revenues rise 1% y/y in Jan-Apr14

Bosnia's Federation sells out EUR10.2mn six-month T-bills14

Bosnia's Federation raises EUR9.7mn from three-month T-bills14

Bosnia's Federation mulls EUR220mn in short- and long-term debt 201515

Bosnia's Serb Republic raises EUR7.6mn from six-month T-bills, yield rises15

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION15

Bosnia's FX reserves rise 12.1% y/y at end-March15

Bosnia's bank assets growth speeds up to 2.7% y/y at end-March16

Bosnia's bank deposits increase 5.6% y/y to EUR7.79bn at end-March16

Bosnia's M1 money supply growth slows to 8.8% y/y at end-March17

EXTERNAL SECTOR17

Bosnia's foreign trade deficit shrinks 7.8% y/y in Q117

Bosnia's Federation foreign trade deficit narrows 6% y/y to EUR460mn in Q118

Bosnia's Serb Republic foreign trade deficit falls 16.6% y/y to EUR198mn in Q118

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS18

Sweden to provide EUR100mn to Bosnia to support its EU membership preparation18

EBRD considers EUR21mn loan to Bosnian retailer Bingo for network expansion18

EBRD lends EUR7mn loan for biomass-fuelled heating project in Bosnia19

Bosnian firms identify political instability as top obstacle for business19

UK-based Mineco wins concession to build and run 4 MW hydropower plant in Bosnia20

Kuwaiti Smart Invest, Bosnian Ans Drive launch construction of EUR51mn Sarajevo Tower20

POLITICS20

EU Council unfreezes Bosnia's SAA20

Bosnia's SAA to enter in force on June 1 - EU delegation chief Wigemark21

EU refers Bosnia to ICRG for insufficient progress on amending criminal code to fight money laundering and terrorism financing22

IMF mission to visit Bosnia on April 28 to discuss new loan agreement - Federation's PM Novalic22

IMF mission to visit Bosnia to discuss new loan agreement23

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