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Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - June, 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 33 pages

This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from June 6 until July 5, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Bosnia & Herzegovina's economic growth in 2016 to 2.6%, though this is still below the estimated 3.2% in 2015, according to the June's edition of the bank's Global Economic Prospects. On the other hand, , according to a 2017-2019 economic prospects paper, adopted by the government, Bosnia's economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 from projected 3.1% this year.

The lower chamber of Bosnia & Herzegovina's parliament, the House of Representatives, approved at an extraordinary session on June 16 changes to the public broadcasting law that should save the state-level public broadcaster BHRT from shutting down at the end of the month.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's state-level statistics office released on June 30 the long delayed final results of the 2013 census, despite strong objections from Republika Srpska, one of the entities making up the country. The census was the first conducted since the end of the Bosnian war in 1995.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's tripartite presidency has delayed voting on the adjustment of its Stabilisation and Association agreement with the European Union as the country's smaller entity, Republika Srpska, has rejected it.

If Bosnia & Herzegovina does not adopt adjustments of its Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and fails to approve a working coordination mechanism, the foreign affairs council of the European Union will not accept its membership application, according to the of the EU delegation to Bosnia, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark.



Key points:

oCPI deflation eased to 1.5% y/y in May

oThe working-day adjusted industrial production increased 3.9% y/y in May

oThe foreign trade gap narrowed 4.9% y/y to EUR1.3bn in the first five months of 2016

Table Of Contents

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - June, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5

REAL SECTOR6

1.GDP6

Bosnia projects 3.5% economic growth for 20176

World Bank lifts Bosnia's 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%6

2. Inflation7

Bosnia's industrial producer price deflation cools to 0.2% y/y in May7

Bosnia's CPI deflation eases to 1.5% y/y in May7

Bosnian Federation's industrial PPI declines by 2.4% y/y in May7

Bosnian Federation's CPI deflation holds at 1.6% y/y in May8

Industrial producer prices in Bosnia's Republika Srpska rise 3.4% y/y in May8

Bosnia's Republika Srpska deflation eases to 1.6% y/y in May8

3. Industry and Trade9

Bosnia's industrial production growth accelerates in May9

Bosnian Federation's industrial production rises 3% y/y in May9

Bosnia's Republika Srpska retail sales growth slows in May10

Bosnia's Republika Srpska industrial production growth accelerates in May10

4. Tourism11

Foreign tourist arrivals in Bosnia rise 12.9% y/y through April11

Bosnia's Republika Srpska reports 14.3% y/y increase in foreign tourist arrivals through April11

5. Labour Market11

Bosnia's registered unemployment rate falls to 42% in April11

Number of unemployed in Bosnia continues decline in April12

Bosnia's average net wage falls 0.4% y/y in April12

Bosnian Federation's real net wage rises 1.3% y/y in April13

Real wage grows 2.7% y/y in May in Bosnia's Republika Srpska13

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY13

Bosnia's H1 indirect tax revenue rises 3.1% y/y to EUR1.6bn13

Bosnia's Q1 consolidated budget posts EUR4.3mn surplus14

Bosnian Federation adopts budget framework for 2017-201914

Bosnian Federation's 5-mo public revenues rise 11% y/y15

Bosnian Federation sells out EUR10.2mn 6-month T-bills issue with negative yield15

Bosnia's Republika Srpska H1 public revenues stay flat y/y15

Bosnia's Republika Srpska raises EUR5.1mn in 12-month T-bills16

Bosnia's Republika Srpska raises EUR8.7mn from 6-month T-bills, above target16

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION17

Bosnian bank deposits grow 8.2% y/y at end-April17

Bosnia's M1 money supply grows 12.9% y/y at end-April17

Bosnia's bank assets cool annual growth in April to 4.3%17

Bosnia's FX reserves grow 9.7% y/y at end-April18

Bosnian Federation's banking system profit at EUR37.3mn in Q118

EXTERNAL SECTOR19

Bosnia's foreign trade deficit narrows 4.9% y/y through May19

Bosnian Federation's 5-mo foreign trade gap expands 4.6%19

Foreign trade deficit in Bosnia's Republika Srpska narrows 26.6% y/y through May20

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS20

ArcelorMittal, Israeli Investment Group reportedly file new bids for control of Bosnian iron ore mine20

Second attempt to sell Bosnian insurer Sarajevo Osiguranje fails21

Bosnia's Pavlovic Banka to raise capital by EUR5.1mn21

Drug producer Bosnalijek approves flat dividend for 201522

Bosnian Federation lowers price of stake in insurer Sarajevo Osiguranje22

Sale of Bosnian insurer Sarajevo Osiguranje fails on lack of bidders23

Bosnia to increase IMF quota by EUR120.5mn23

Bosnia to borrow EUR65mn from EBRD for road upgrades23

Hungarian companies eye EUR61mn investments in Bosnia in 201624

ArcelorMitta reportedlyl interested in buying control of Bosnian iron ore mine24

Turkish Airlines reportedly interested in building new airport in Bosnian capital24

Bosnian parliament approves changes to law to save public broadcaster BHRT25

Bosnia to seek EUR50mn from IPA in 201625

Bosnia's Republika Srpska probes state development bank26

POLITICS27

Bosnia and Herzegovina announces long delayed 2013 census results27

Slower EU economic growth after Brexit could affect Bosnia, central bank says28

Bosnia's opposition SDS party files appeal at constitutional court against census results announcement28

Bosnia's presidency delays approval of SAA adjustment due to objection by Republika Srpska29

EU will not approve Bosnia's membership application without SAA adjustment, coordination mechanism31

Bosnian authorities fail to agree on EU-required coordination mechanism31

Bosnia's central government approves SAA adjustment despite objections from Republika Srpska32

Bosnia's Republika Srpska turns down EU's SAA adjustment proposal33

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