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  4. > Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Autos Report Q4 2015

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Autos Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 94 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI retains a negative near-term view on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. We are now targeting falls in autosales for all three countries over 2015.Starting with Jordan, BMI retains a downbeat stance towards new vehicle sales this quarter, as we feel thatthe growing threat to the Kingdom's borders from ongoing attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents morethan outweighs what is a reasonably propitious domestic macroeconomic backdrop.

According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press (AP), ongoing border violence has led to theclosure of the sole Syria-Jordan trade crossing, effectively paralysing its overland trade routes. The reportalso stated that Jordanian exports were already down by 17% y-o-y over the first two months of 2015,before the security situation worsened. With specific regard to the auto sector, the AP report quoted a traderwho said that he had stopped selling cars to Iraq, following the imposition of IS 'tariffs', whereby IS fightersarbitrarily charge USD2,000 for each imported car passing through an IS-manned checkpoint.

Table Of Contents

Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Political 15
Economic 17
Operational Risk 18
Political 20
Economic 21
Operational Risk 22
Industry Forecast 23
Industry Forecast - Jordan 23
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019) 23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019) 23
Trade 27
Passenger Cars 27
Luxury Cars 28
Alternative Fuels 29
Industry Forecast - Lebanon 31
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019) 31
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019) 31
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019) 31
Passenger Cars 35
Table: Lebanon - Top Five Best-Selling Brands, 2014 36
Industry Forecast - Syria 37
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Syria 2013-2019) 37
Macroeconomic Forecasts 41
Economic Analysis 41
Expenditure Breakdown 42
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Jordan 2012-2019) 46
Economic Analysis 46
Economic Analysis 55
Table: FUEL AND FOOD PRICES AFTER SUBSIDY CUTS 58
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 61
MENA - Risk/Reward Index 61
Iran The Epitome Of 'High Risk, High Reward' 61
GCC Leads On Stability 62
Conflict Risks Are Pertinent 62
Company Profile 63
Company Monitor 63
Hyundai-Kia 66
Renault 67
Regional Overview 69
Industry Trend Analysis 69
Table: MENA Production Investments 69
GCC Production Spreads 69
Changes In North Africa 71
Global Industry Overview 72
1 Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth 72
2 Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots 73
3 SUVs Rolling On 74
4 Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring 76
Demographic Forecast 77
Jordan Demographic Forecast 77
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Jordan 1990-2025) 78
Table: Key Population Ratios (Jordan 1990-2025) 78
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Jordan 1990-2025) 79
Table: Population By Age Group (Jordan 1990-2025) 79
Table: Population By Age Group % (Jordan 1990-2025) 80
Lebanon Demographic Forecast 81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lebanon 1990-2025) 83
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lebanon 1990-2025) 83
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Lebanon 1990-2025) 84
Table: Population By Age Group (Lebanon 1990-2025) 84
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lebanon 1990-2025) 85
Demographic Forecast 86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Syria 1990-2025) 88
Table: Key Population Ratios (Syria 1990-2025) 88
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Syria 1990-2025) 89
Table: Population By Age Group (Syria 1990-2025) 89
Table: Population By Age Group % (Syria 1990-2025) 90
Methodology 91
Industry Forecasts 91
Sector-Specific Methodology 92
Sources 92
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 93
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 94

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