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Turkmenistan Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Turkmenistan's construction market will be driven by government spending and increasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and rail interconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China and Russia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.


Forecast & Industry Developments

- Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.1%, from 8.7% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 due to economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees average annual growth of 8.1% and a value of TMT46.0bn (USD10.3bn) in 2025.

- The key sectors for development will be those related to trade and the transit of goods, so we expect transport (especially rail), along with energy (particularly gas production and transmission), to remain the key investment areas.

- However, the marquee TAPI pipeline project is beset with problems relating to funding, security concerns along its planned route and fragile commitment from the partners.

- While GDP growth will remain solid (6.5% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2017), as to be expected from an emerging economy, we see growth slowing over the next decade, but at a pace unlikely to spur the government into economic diversification, which we view as essential to maintain infrastructure spending.

Table Of Contents

Turkmenistan Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Forecast and Industry Developments 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2025) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Turkmenistan 2016-2016) 6
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast 9
Latest Developments 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Turkmenistan 2015-2025) 9
Structural Trends 9
Industry Risk/Reward Index 20
Rewards 20
Risks 21
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 22
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 27
Methodology 28
Industry Forecast Methodology 28
Sector-Specific Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 33
Sector-Specific Methodology 34
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 34
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 35

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