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EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that infects the cells of the immune system, destroying or impairing their function. As the infection progresses, the immune system becomes increasingly weaker, and the infected person becomes more susceptible to other infections. It can take as long as two to 10 years for a person infected with HIV to develop acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), which is the most advanced stage of HIV; however, treatment with antiretroviral drugs can slow the process even further.

In 2013, there were 3,394,507 total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM, with 1,218,323 cases in the US and 641,500 in the 5EU markets combined. Japan had 18,428 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in 2013. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase to 4,126,502 in the 8MM by 2023. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in Japan will increase to 27,264 cases by 2023.

GlobalData epidemiologists reviewed national and international HIV and AIDS databases and used reliable data to build this forecast. The total prevalent cases of HIV were segmented by age and sex using country-specific data, whenever available; when data were not available, appropriate proxies were used. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provide an alternative forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, which better aligns with the ART market sales data after consolidation. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an alternative forecast for Japan, based on the reported HIV prevalent cases.

Scope

- The HIV EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for HIV in the nine major markets (9MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the total prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age (beginning at 0 years and ending at =85 years) in the 8MM, excluding Japan, for which 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases, is forecast. In addition, the report provides the prevalent cases of HIV-positive pregnant women in the total prevalent HIV cases, as well as the total prevalent cases treated by antiretroviral drugs.
- The HIV epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global HIV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for HIV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.3 Global Trends 12
3.3.1 US 13
3.3.2 5EU 13
3.3.3 Brazil, China, and Japan 15
3.4 Forecast Methodology 15
3.4.1 Sources Used 16
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 26
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 27
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in the 8MM (2013-2023) 33
3.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 33
3.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 36
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 37
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of HIV 39
3.5.5 HIV Cases Treated with ART 40
3.5.6 Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women 42
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in Japan (2013-2023) 43
3.6.1 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 43
3.6.2 Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 44
3.6.3 Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 45
3.6.4 Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV 46
3.6.5 HIV Cases Treated with ART 46
3.6.6 Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women 47
3.7 Discussion 48
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 48
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 49
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 50
4 Appendix 51
4.1 Bibliography 51
4.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 57
4.3 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 59
4.4 About the Authors 60
4.4.1 Epidemiologists 60
4.4.2 Reviewers 61
4.4.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 62
4.4.4 Global Head of Healthcare 62
4.5 About GlobalData 63
4.6 About EpiCast 63
4.7 Disclaimer 64

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV 11
Table 2: US, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men and Women (%), Ages ?13 Years, 2006-2010 13
Table 3: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2013 14
Table 4: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Women (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2013 14
Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 16
Table 6: Japan, Sources Used to Forecast the 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Japan 17
Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the ART Treatment Rate Among the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 18
Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of HIV-Positive Pregnant Women 20
Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2013-2023 34
Table 10: 8MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013 36
Table 11: 8MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013 38
Table 12: 8MM, HIV Cases Treated with ART, N (Col %), All Ages, Both Sexes, Selected Years 2013-2023 41
Table 13: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2013-2023 43
Table 14: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013 44
Table 15: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013 45
Table 16: Japan, HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2013-2023 47
Table 17: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country 59

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, 2013-2023 35
Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N, 2013 37
Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013 39
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013 40
Figure 5: 8MM, Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women Among the Total Prevalent Cases of HIV in Women, N, 2013 and 2023 42
Figure 6: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, N, 2013-2023 43
Figure 7: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, N, 2013 44
Figure 8: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013 45
Figure 9: Japan, Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV, All Ages, N, 2013 46
Figure 10:Japan, Cases of HIV in Pregnant Women Among Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Women, N, 2013 and 2023 47

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