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EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a lentivirus that impairs and destructs the CD4 cells of the immune system. This weakens the immune system, leaving an infected individual more susceptible to other illnesses and, over time, impairing the individual’s ability to fight off infections.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized national and international HIV and AIDS databases, surveillance data, and robust peer-reviews journal articles to build the forecast of total prevalent and diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM. HIV is defined as an infection with HIV, regardless of the stage of disease. This corresponds to the International Classification of Diseases 10th edition (ICD-10) code B20. Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV were segmented by age and sex using country-specific data, whenever available; when data were not available, appropriate proxies were used. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provided an alternative forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, which better aligns with the ART market sales data after consolidation. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an alternative forecast for Japan in the EpiCast model based on the reported prevalent HIV cases.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase from 3,632,410 in 2015 to 4,266,548 in 2025 at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.75%. The US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of HIV in both 2015 and 2025 at 1,315,263 and 1,514,925, respectively. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase from 2,926,335 in 2015 to 3,616,811 in 2025 at an AGR of 2.36%. In Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV to increase from 20,438 in 2015 to 25,417 in 2025 at an AGR of 2.44%.

Scope

- The Humman Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends for HIV in the nine major markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). For the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Brazil, and China) it also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of HIV (both sexes and all ages), and diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age from 2015-2025. The diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are further segmented into those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), those with hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection, and those with hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provide a 10-year forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age from 2015-2025. The 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are further segmented into those receiving ART, those with HBV co-infection, and those with HCV co-infection.
- The HIV epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

Reasons to buy

The HIV EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global HIV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HIV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Understand co-infection population and ART treated population for HIV patients.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2 Epidemiology 9
2.1 Disease Background 9
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
2.3 Global Trends 12
2.3.1 US 13
2.3.2 5EU 13
2.3.3 Japan, Brazil, and China 15
2.4 Forecast Methodology 16
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 17
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 43
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in the 8MM (2015-2025) 44
2.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV 44
2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 46
2.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 47
2.5.4 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 49
2.5.5 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 51
2.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy 52
2.5.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection 54
2.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection 55
2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in Japan (2015-2025) 57
2.6.1 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 57
2.6.2 Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 57
2.6.3 Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 58
2.6.4 Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV 58
2.6.5 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy 59
2.6.6 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection 60
2.6.7 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection 61
2.7 Discussion 61
2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 61
2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 62
2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 64
3 Appendix 65
3.1 Bibliography 65
3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 74
3.2.1 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 74
3.3 About the Authors 75
3.3.1 Epidemiologists 75
3.3.2 Reviewers 75
3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 77
3.4 About GlobalData 77
3.5 About EpiCast 78
3.6 Disclaimer 78

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV 10
Table 2: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men and Women (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001-2015 14
Table 3: 8MM, Sources of HIV Total Prevalence Data 17
Table 4: 8MM, Sources of HIV Diagnosed Prevalence Data 19
Table 5: Japan, Sources Used to Forecast the 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Japan 20
Table 6: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART 21
Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HBV Co-infection 22
Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HCV Co-infection 23
Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 45
Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 46
Table 11: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015, Cases (N) and Proportions (Row %) 48
Table 12: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015 (Row %) 50
Table 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 53
Table 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 55
Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 56
Table 16: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 57
Table 17: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, 2015 (Row %) 58
Table 18: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, 2015 (Row %) 58
Table 19: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 60
Table 20: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 60
Table 21: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015-2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%) 61
Table 22: High-Prescribing Psychiatrists (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country 74

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Overview of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 1990-2015 12
Figure 2: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 45
Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 47
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 49
Figure 5: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 51
Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015 52
Figure 7: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 57
Figure 8: Japan, Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015 59

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