Clean Mass Transit

• Publication date: November 2010

Transit agencies operate lines of buses, rail, and sometimes both. As they look to reduce their carbon emissions, many are seeking forms of mass transit that have lower emissions either from alternative fuel buses or electric rail. Within the bus transit sector, although diesel will remain the dominant powertrain, the hybrid electric and natural gas buses are growing at global compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 19.8% and 8.2%, respectively, ...

Transit agencies operate lines of buses, rail, and sometimes both. As they look to reduce their carbon emissions, many are seeking forms of mass transit that have lower emissions either from alternative fuel buses or electric rail. Within the bus transit sector, although diesel will remain the dominant powertrain, the hybrid electric and natural gas buses are growing at global compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 19.8% and 8.2%, respectively, between 2010 and 2016. Fuel cell buses, while still rare and expensive, are likely to see some modest increases by 2016 as well, with deliveries expected to reach 1,083 vehicles in 2016.


Bus rapid transit (BRT) systems are another area of growth within buses. These systems essentially act as a rapid transit rail system, without having to spend the infrastructure costs associated with rail. BRT vehicles are fundamentally the same as other transit buses with different designs, but they make fewer stops and have dedicated lanes. Developing nations fighting congestion look to BRT as a more affordable rapid transit solution, and the Latin America region has the largest demand for BRT systems (43% of the global market of 2,510 vehicles in 2016).


The rail transit market is seeing modest growth, due in large part to its high capital costs. Light rail, which is often street level rail, is the smallest market, but has the strongest growth (1.4% CAGR between 2010 and 2016). Rapid transit (subways and elevated trains) is designed to take large numbers of passengers in an urban center, and is currently the largest rail fleet with growth expected to reach 1.2% CAGR. Commuter rail travels further, bringing passengers from suburbs into urban centers and will see slightly slower growth in total rolling stock (1% CAGR). The Western Europe and Asia Pacific regions are the largest rail transit markets.


This Pike Research report examines the opportunities and challenges within the mass transit vehicle market. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of mass transit vehicles, including diesel technology, hybrid battery technology, rail electrification, regenerative braking, government emissions regulations, emerging markets, and key drivers of market growth. The report includes forecasts through 2016 for transit buses, alternative fuel buses, BRT, light rail, rapid transit, and commuter rail by world region. Key market players are also profiled.

Key questions addressed:

• What types of mass transit vehicles are available?
• What are the key urban planning issues with mass transit?
• How is mass transit funded?
• What are the different alternative fuels used in transit buses?
• How big will the market be for alternative fuel buses?
• How big will the market be for bus rapid transit systems?
• How large is the fleet of light rail transit vehicles expected to be?
• How large is the fleet of rapid transit rail vehicles expected to be?
• How large is the fleet of commuter rail vehicles expected to be?
• What are the key technologies used in mass transit vehicles?
• How does electric third-rail and overhead lines work and what types of vehicles use them?
• What are the types of batteries likely to be used in hybrid buses and wayside energy storage?
• Where are the strong markets for mass transit buses and rail?
• What are government emission regulations diesel transit buses and how will they impact the market?
• How big will the market for mass transit vehicles be globally?
• Who are the key industry players in the bus and rail mass transit markets?

Who needs this report?

• Bus OEM Marketing Managers
• Railcar OEM Marketing Managers
• OEM Supply Chain Managers
• Electric Motor Manufacturers
• Battery Manufacturers
• Government Environmental Agency
• Transit Agency Planners
• Environmental Transportation Advocacy Groups
• Mass Transit Trade Associations
• Utility Managers
• Railroad Planning Managers

Global Cleantech Industry

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Issues
2.1 Definition of Clean Mass Transit
2.2 Transit Buses
2.2.1 Hybrid Electric Buses
2.2.2 Natural Gas Buses
2.2.3 Fuel Cell Buses
2.3 Bus Rapid Transit
2.4 Electric Bus, Trolley Bus
2.5 Other Field Equipment Relevant to DA Applications
2.5.1 Overhead Power Supplies
2.6 Rapid Transit (Heavy) Rail
2.7 Commuter Rail
2.8 High-Speed Rail
2.9 Other Mass Transit Technologies
2.9.1 Monorails
2.9.2 Personal Rapid Transit
2.9.3 Magnetic Levitation Trains
3. Governmental Issues
3.1 Urban Planning
3.1.1 OEM Involvement in the Planning Process
3.1.2 Mass Transit Costs
3.2 Mass Transit Funding
3.3 Mass Transit Ridership Issues
3.4 Emissions Role in the Transit Market
3.4.1 Carbon Pricing
3.4.2 EPA Emissions Limitations
3.4.3 California Air Resources Board Diesel Emission Limitations
3.4.4 Canada
3.4.5 South America
3.4.6 Europe
3.4.7 Japan
3.4.8 China
4. Technology Issues
4.1 Diesel Emissions Control Equipment
4.2 Natural Gas
4.2.1 Compressed Natural Gas
4.2.2 Liquefied Natural Gas
4.3 Hybrid Electric Energy Storage Technology
4.3.1 Lead Acid Batteries
4.3.1.1 Advanced Lead Acid Batteries
4.3.2 Nickel Metal Hydride Batteries
4.3.3 Lithium Ion Batteries
4.3.4 Sodium Metal Halide Batteries
4.3.5 Flywheels
4.3.6 Ultracapacitors
4.4 Braking Systems
4.4.1 Regenerative Braking
4.4.2 Wayside Energy Storage
4.4.3 Dynamic Braking in Commuter Rails
4.5 Central Management of Transit Assets
4.6 Hydrogen Fuel Cells
4.7 Magnetic Levitation
5. Key Industry Players
5.1 Alexander Dennis Limited
5.2 Allison Transmission
5.3 Alstom
5.4 AnsaldoBreda Inc
5.5 BAE Systems
5.6 Bombardier
5.7 Cummins
5.8 Daimler Buses North America
5.9 Evobus GmbH
5.10 Foton
5.11 General Electric
5.12 Gillig
5.13 Hitachi
5.14 Hyundai Rotem Corporation
5.15 Irisbus Iveco
5.16 ISE Corporation
5.17 Kawasaki Heavy Industries
5.18 Maxwell Technologies
5.19 MAN Group
5.20 North American Bus Industries
5.21 Nova Bus
5.22 Scania Group
5.23 Siemens
5.24 Toshiba Corporation
5.25 URS Corporation
5.26 Van Hool
5.27 Volvo Group
5.28 Vossloh
5.29 Wuzhoulong Motors Group
5.30 Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Company
5.31 ZF Friedrichshafen AG
5.32 Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company
6. Market Forecasts
6.1 Transit Bus Forecasts
6.1.1 Natural Gas Transit Bus Forecast
6.1.2 Hybrid Electric Transit Bus Forecast
6.1.3 Fuel Cell Transit Bus Forecast
6.1.4 Bus Rapid Transit Vehicle Forecast
6.2 Light Rail Transit Rolling Stock Forecast
6.3 Rapid Transit Rolling Stock Forecast
6.4 Commuter Rail Rolling Stock Forecast
6.5 Summary and Conclusions
7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• North American Bus Industries’ Example of Articulated BRT Bus and Traditional Transit Bus
• Diagram of Transit Rail Overhead Electrical Line
• Diagram of Third Rail Electrical Connection
• Transit Bus Deliveries by Drive Type, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Rail Transit Rolling Stock, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Passenger Kilometer Traveled by Mode
• Bus Rapid Transit by Vehicle Design, World Markets: 2016
• Public Transportation Operating Revenue by Source, United States: 2010
• Public Transportation Capital Revenue by Source, United States: 2010
• Total Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Bus Deliveries by Drive Type, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Natural Gas (CNG/LNG) Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Hybrid Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Bus Rapid Transit Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Light Rail Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Rapid Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Commuter Rail Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016

List of Tables

• Typical Transit Bus Costs, United States
• Comparison of Mass Transit Rail Modes
• Typical Project Costs by Mass Transit Mode
• Transportation Financing and Investment Sources, China: 2008
• Total Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Natural Gas (CNG/LNG) Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Hybrid Electric Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Bus Rapid Transit Vehicle Deliveries by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Bus Rapid Transit Deliveries by Vehicle Design, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Light Rail Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Fleet Growth of Light Rail Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Rapid Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Fleet Growth of Rapid Transit Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Commuter Train Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Fleet Growth of Commuter Train Rolling Stock by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Public Transit Revenue by Source, United States: 2010-2016