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I&R - The African Oil & Gas Exploration Market Report 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Investment and Research
  • -
  • 189 pages

Africa is one of the world’s most interesting oil and gas hotspots, the region that includes a diverse range of economies all at varying stages in terms of oil and gas industry development, with West Africa rapidly and North Africa being the most developed, whilst East Africa is emerging as a new global frontier. OPEC member Angola and newcomer Namibia on the South West coast are set to increase oil and gas production over the coming years with the continuing exploitation of pre-salt reserves.

Tanzania and Mozambique are set to become natural gas producers to cater for growing domestic and regional demand for gas-to-power facilities. For many years the area was neglected by the world’s oil and gas industry, and even in Africa it was overshadowed by the rapid development in West Africa and the established markets in North Africa. However, with the discovery of both oil & gas reserves in the region over the past five years, opportunities are being created within a number of East African nations. In Southern Africa is looking to expand its offshore operations, boosted by successes off its Western coast, as well as hoping to expand onshore shale gas development in the Karoo Basin to supply the needs of the region’s economies.

Madagascar is also set to become one of the world’s most exciting emerging oil producers, and is currently vying for foreign capital along with other countries in the region to develop its large onshore, heavy oil and oil sands reserves over the coming decade.

This report covers emerging developments in the oil and gas sectors in 22 African countries across the major regions on the continent, North, South, East and West:

Why you should buy The Africa Oil & Gas Market 2015

- 189 pages of comprehensive analysis
- 85 tables, charts, and graphs quantifying the market in detail
- Global bottled water market forecasts between 2015 and 2020
- Forecasts for the 22 African Oil & Gas markets:
- Egypt
- Algeria
- Tunisia
- Libya
- Italy
- Morocco
- Nigeria
- Cote d’Ivoire
- Ghana
- Equatorial Guinea
- Gabon
- Cameroon
- Tanzania
- Kenya
- Uganda
- Sudan & South Sudan
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Somalia
- Madagascar
- Mozambique
- Namibia
- Malawi
- Angola
- South Africa

- A SWOT analysis that examines the African Oil & Gas market
- 17 key companies identified and profiled operating within the African Oil & Gas Market.

You can order this report today and discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the African Oil & Gas industry and gain an understanding of how to tap into the potential of this market by ordering The African Oil & Gas Market 2015.

Table Of Contents

IandR - The African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Report 2015
Executive Summary 15
Benefits of the Report 18
Intended Audience 18
Report Contributors 18
Methodology 19
Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook in 2015 20
Oil Companies Delaying Investments Denting 2015 Capex 21
Crude Outlook 21
Figure 1: WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price 1997-2020 ( $/Barrel) 22
Table 1: IandR Front Month Average, Annual Forecast, US$/bbl 23
Natural Gas Outlook 24
Figure 2: Henry Hub Gulf Coast Natural Gas Spot Price 1998-2020f ($/MMBTU) 25
Long-Term Outlook 25
Africa Oil and Gas Outlook 27
Crude Oil Outlook 27
Natural Gas Outlook 28
The Exploration Market Outlook 29
The Short-Term Outlook 29
The Medium-Term Outlook 29
The Long-Term Outlook 30
The African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 31
Table 2: African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 31
Figure 3: African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %)) 31
North Africa Insecurity Affecting Investment 32
West Africa Offshore activity to drive prospectivity 32
East Africa New Exploration Frontier 33
Southern Africa unconventional exploration 34
Obstacles to Oil and Gas Investment on the continent 35
Frontier Africa Exploration Set For Slow-Down 35
Drivers and Restraints of the African Oil and Gas Exploration Market 36
Table 3: Drivers and Restraints of the African Oil and Gas Exploration Market 36
Drivers 36
Oil and Gas Prices and Related Factors 36
Restraints 37
Current Financial Conditions 37
Conservative Oil and Gas Companies 38
Limited Supply of Skilled Employees 38
Regional Oil and Gas Exploration Market Outlook 39
Table 4: Regional African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %)) 39
Figure 4: Regional African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %)) 40
Figure 5: Capex Market Share 2015 (interior) 2020 (exterior), (%) 41
Figure 6: African Oil Reserves (bbl) 42
Figure 7: African Gas Reserves (tcf) 43
West Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market 45
Table 5: West Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 45
Figure 8: West Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 45
Frontier West Africa Exploration Under Threat 46
Growing investment bias of proven areas over frontier plays 46
Nigeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market 48
Table 6: Nigeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 48
Figure 9: Nigeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 48
Bonga Oilfield Delays Support Negative Nigerian Outlook 49
Figure10: Nigeria - Oil Production (000b/d and % chg y-o-y) 50
Niger Delta is showing signs of maturity 50
Figure 11: Nigeria's Oil and Gas Blocks 51
Growing Chinese interest 52
Ghana Oil and Gas Exploration Market 53
Table 7: Ghana Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 53
Figure 12: Ghana Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 53
Ghana told to stop new oil drilling in disputed waters 54
More international companies venture into oil exploration, development in Ghana 55
Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Exploration Market 57
Table 8: Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 57
Figure 13: Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 57
Blocks Awarded But Output Recovery Still Looks Temporary 58
Cote d'Ivoire Oil and Gas Exploration Market 60
Table 9: Cote d'Ivoire Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 60
Figure 14: Cote d'Ivoire Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 60
Ivory Coast Diving for Ultra-Deepwater Buyers 61
New Discoveries 62
Figure 15: Cote d'Ivoire Exploration Blocks 63
Côte d'Ivoire: New find for Foxtrot partners 63
Foxtrot flows oil and gas from Cote d'Ivoire offshore well 65
Gabon Oil and Gas Exploration Market 67
Table 10: Gabon Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 67
Figure 16: Gabon Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 67
Offshore Exploration Heats Up In Gabon 68
Gabon's Political Instability: a Rising Risk to Oil Production 68
Figure 17: Gabon Real GDP Growth And Front-Month Brent Price Forecast 69
Figure 18: Gabon Oil Production Forecast 70
Cameroon Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 72
Table 11: Cameroon Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 72
Figure 19: Cameroon Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 72
Frontier oil exploration in Cameroon under threat 73
Northern WAF Basins Most At Risk 74
East Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market 75
Table 12: East Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 75
Figure 20: East Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 75
Tanzania Oil and Gas Exploration Market 77
Table 13: Tanzania Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 77
Figure 21: Tanzania Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 77
Statoil makes its eighth discovery in Block 2 offshore Tanzania 78
Tanzania's corruption allegations threaten energy sector potential 79
Kenya Oil and Gas Exploration Market 81
Table 14: Kenya Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 81
Figure 22: Kenya Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 81
Tullow's East African Exploration Remains Positive 82
Table 15: Tullow Oil Kenya Exploration Results - January 2015 82
Kenyan Exploration To Remain Unscathed by Falling Prices 83
Figure 23: Oil Reserves of Selected Countries In Sub-Saharan Africa (mn bbl) 84
Africa Oil Share Sale to Finance Kenya Appraisal 84
Ethnic violence in Kenya poses little risk to oil companies 85
Figure 24: Kenya - Late October/Early November Attacks On Security Personnel 86
Economic Fallout Limited, Even For Oil Investment 86
Risk to Outlook Weak Local Content Fuelling Opposition 87
Devolution Brings Political Uncertainty 88
Uganda Oil and Gas Exploration Market 90
Table 16: Uganda Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 90
Figure 25: Uganda Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 90
Uganda's First Oil and Gas Licensing Round Unlikely to Hook New Companies 92
Table 17: Ugandan Oil Exploration Blocks To Be Offered 93
Ugandan Government Scraps Taxes on Oil, Gas, Mining Exploration 94
Tullow to pay $108 million tax in Uganda 94
Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Exploration Market 96
Table 18: Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 96
Figure 26: Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 96
Opportunities Come With Risks 97
Figure 27: Sudan and South Sudan Oil Blocks 98
Exxon Ends Oil Search With Total in South Sudan as War Rages 99
Projects Suspended 99
Democratic Republic of the Congo Oil and Gas Exploration Market 100
Table 19: Democratic Republic of the Congo Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 100
Figure 28: Democratic Republic of the Congo Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 100
Somalia Oil and Gas Exploration Market 102
Table 20: Somalia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 102
Figure 29: Somalia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 102
Numerous Complications to Explorations 103
Somalia's Onshore Exploration Locked in Limbo 104
Table 21: Main Exploration Contracts Puntland And Somaliland 104
Somalia takes Kenya to ICJ over sea border 105
Madagascar Oil and Gas Exploration Market 106
Table 22: Madagascar Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 106
Figure 30: Madagascar Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 106
Sterling extends exploration licence at Madagascar offshore blocks 107
North African Oil and Gas Exploration Market 109
Table 23: North African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2012-2020 ($m, AGR %) 109
Figure 31: North African Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2012-2020 ($m) 109
Algeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market 111
Table 24: Algeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 111
Figure 32: Algeria Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 111
Slow European Recovery Impacting Upstream Investment 112
Algeria's Dependence on Europe a Threat to Oil Exports 113
Figure 33: Algeria Crude Oil Net Export Forecast 2014-2020 114
Figure 34: Algeria Crude Oil Net Export And Front Month Brent Price Forecast 115
Figure 35: Western Europe Refining Capacity Forecast 116
Egypt Oil and Gas Exploration Market 117
Table 25: Egypt Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 117
Figure 36: Egypt Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 117
Egypt Boosted by Exploration Deals with International Oil Companies 118
Egypt's Underexplored Western Desert Offers Oil Production Upside 118
IOCs To Drive Growth Exploration Growth In Egypt 119
Morocco Oil and Gas Exploration Market 121
Table 26: Morocco Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 121
Figure 37: Morocco Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 121
Mubadala Petroleum on board with oil and gas exploration in Morocco 122
Drilling Results Threaten to Derail Morocco's Investment into Offshore Exploration 123
Table 27: Morocco - Completed Offshore Exploration Wells, 123
Tunisia Oil and Gas Exploration Market 125
Table 28: Tunisia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 125
Figure 38: Tunisia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 125
Tunisia's exploration successes unlikely to lift hydrocarbon imports burden 126
Figure 39: Tunisia Oil (LHS) and Gas (RHS) Production, Consumption and Net Exports 127
Figure 40: Tunisia Real GDP Growth And Budget Balance 128
Libya Oil and Gas Exploration Market 130
Table 29: Libya Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 130
Figure 41: Libya Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 130
Exploration Ongoing Amidst Turmoil 131
Southern Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market 133
Table 30: Southern Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 133
Figure 42: Southern Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 133
New Discoveries 134
Figure 43: Recent Developments in Southern African Oil and Gas 134
Mozambique Oil and Gas Exploration Market 136
Table 31: Mozambique Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 136
Figure 44: Mozambique Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 136
Licensing Round Delays Highlight Mozambique's Unclear Regulatory Framework 137
Table 32: Mozambique 5th Licensing Round 137
Table 33: Mozambique 5th Licensing Round 139
Mozambique offers more gas and oil blocks week after election 140
Amended Petroleum Law 140
Angola Oil and Gas Exploration Market 142
Table 34: Angola Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 142
Figure 45: Angola Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 142
South Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market 145
Table 35: South Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 145
Figure 46: South Africa Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 145
Ineffective Policymaking and Price Delays Upstream Investment in South Africa 146
Namibia Oil and Gas Exploration Market 148
Table 36: Namibia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 148
Figure 47: Namibia Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 148
Drilling Commitments On The Rise 149
Namibian Investments Increasingly At Risk 150
Namibia: Africa's next big oil frontier? 150
Malawi Oil and Gas Exploration Market 152
Table 37: Malawi Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m, AGR %) 152
Figure 48: Malawi Oil and Gas Exploration Market Forecast 2011-2020 ($m) 152
Malawi's Oil Exploration Licences and Agreements should be cancelled according to Attorney General 153
SWOT of African Oil and Gas Exploration Industry 155
Strengths 157
Oil Demand 157
Reservoir Complexity 157
Frontier Markets 157
Weaknesses 157
Price Volatility 157
Contract Operations 158
Multi-Client Operations 158
Seasonality of Contracts 158
High Fixed Cost 158
Currency Fluctuations 158
Intense Competition 159
Hazardous Operating Conditions 159
Opportunities 159
Niche Markets 159
Technological Development 160
Growing Unconventional OandG Plays 160
Environmental Concerns 160
Nuclear Phase-Out 160
Threats 161
The Oil Price 161
Regulation and Government Policy 162
Political Instability 162
Legal Challenges 162
Technological Change 163
Industry Trends And Developments 164
Sterling Energy Commences 3D Seismic Survey in Ambilobe Block off Madagascar 164
Spectrum ASA Commences Phase 2 of the 2D Multi-Client Cross-Border Survey Offshore Namibia and South Africa 164
Seabird's Northern Explorer Bags LOI for 2D Seismic Survey in West Africa 164
Swala Completes 2D Seismic Program Over Kilombero Basin in Tanzania 165
Company Profiles 166
Afren plc 166
Africa Oil 166
Anadarko 167
BG Group 169
Chevron 170
CNOOC 171
Eni S.p.A 172
ExxonMobil 172
Heritage Oil Plc 173
Kosmos Energy 173
Oando Plc 175
Ophir Energy 176
Royal Dutch Shell 177
Sasol Ltd 178
Statoil 178
Total 179
Tullow Oil 180
Conclusions 181
Glossary Of Terms 183
Methodology 185
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 185
Disclaimer 185
Appendix A 186
Appendix B 187

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