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Bulgaria Power Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Our core forecasts for Bulgaria's power sector again remain unchanged this quarter. Limitedinvestment in new power infrastructure means capacity and generation are expected to grow only slowlythroughout the forecast period, leaving Bulgaria heavily reliant on coal-fired power plants and, to a lesserextent, existing nuclear facilities, which are being upgraded. Despite the slow growth, Bulgaria willcontinue to posit an energy surplus and will continue to export electricity via several major cross-borderinterconnections. There is some scope for renewed investor interest should reforms to the wholesaleelectricity market gain traction, however corruption remains a significant barrier to new developments andlimited domestic demand will also curtail growth potential.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- While the upgrade of Unit 5 of the Kozludy nuclear plant has been completed and work on Unit 6 isongoing, we do not currently factor the plan for a seventh reactor at Kozloduy - due to be completed in2023 - into our forecasts. If the proposal comes to fruition at all, it will likely do so after the end of ourforecast period, which runs to 2025.

- Prime Minister Boyko Borissov revived the possibility of restarting construction at the mothballed Beleneplant, proposing in August 2016 that a private sector partner be found for the 2000MW project. Theannouncement has all the hallmarks of a last resort, after the government tried, to no avail, to sell some ofthe completed components to Iran, in the immediate wake of a verdict by the International Court ofArbitration in June that Bulgaria would have to pay EUR620mn in compensation to Russia'sAtomstroyexport, for work undertaken earlier. The government's chances of finding private partnerswilling to stump up the remaining funds for the EUR10bn in financing appear remote, especially givenlimited prospects for growth in electricity demand and the fact Belene is in an earthquake prone zone.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Bulgaria 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Bulgaria Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Bulgaria 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Bulgaria Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Nuclear Generation and Capacity Forecast 12
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 20
Transmission and Distribution 20
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 22
Bulgaria Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 29
Market Overview 31
Key Policies And Market Structure 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Pricing 31
Transmission And Distribution 32
Bulgaria Power Projects Database 33
Table: Bulgaria - Top Power Projects By Capacity 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Regional Overview 36
CEE Power Regional Overview 36
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

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