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  5. > United States Retail Report Q1 2016

United States Retail Report Q1 2016

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The US retail sector is continuing its revival, as the economic recovery is centred around consumption. Lower oil prices, low inflation, tightening labour market and low interest rates are all fuelling household spending. Growth is coming from online sales in particular, as e-commerce continues its explosive trajectory. While interest rates are set to rise, this will be a gradual process. We therefore expect these trends to continue to play out, with opportunities across the wide retail sector spectrum.

The recovering economy is having a much larger impact for spending on non-essentials, which we believe will largely outperform essential goods across a range of sub-sectors. For example, we have a strong view
on spending at restaurant to grow faster than off-trade food sales. Spending on household goods such as furniture, will also perform well in the relatively stable housing market. Sales of new cars also back up this
view, with many companies reporting drastic rise in revenues in the first half of 2015. The availability of credit and lower levels of household debt are driving this trend towards non-essentials over essentials. This
trend is also being facilitated by a rise in the number of middle-class and rising overall incomes. Those at the bottom end of the income spectrum are likely to remain more cautious in the near-term and essentials
will still account for the vast majority of spending in the US in 2015.

Table Of Contents

United States Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic .. 12
Industry Forecast .. 13
Headline Retail Forecast .. 13
Table: Total Household Spending (United States 2012-2019) . 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (United States 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (United States 2012-2019) . 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (United States 2012-2019) . 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (United States 2012-2019) . 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (United States 2012-2019) 22
Household Goods .. 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (United States 2012-2019) 23
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (United States 2012-2019) . 24
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (United States 2012-2019) 25
Personal Care 25
Table: Personal Care Spending (United States 2012-2019) 26
Household Numbers and Income Forecast . 27
Table: Household Income Data (United States 2012-2019) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (United States 2012-2019) 30
Demographic Forecast .. 32
Table: Total Population (United States 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Babies (United States 2012-2019) . 34
Table: Population: Young Children (United States 2012-2019) . 34
Table: Population: Children (United States 2012-2019) . 35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (United States 2012-2019) . 35
Table: Population: Young People (United States 2012-2019) . 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (United States 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: 21yrs + (United States 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (United States 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Middle Aged (United States 2012-2019) . 37
Table: Population: Urban (United States 2012-2019) . 38
Macroeconomic Forecasts .. 39
Economic Analysis .. 39
Table: US - Key Economic Indicators 39
Table: US - Private Consumption Forecasts . 41
Table: US - Private Investment Forecasts 41
Table: US - Government Consumption And Investment Forecasts . 43
Table: US - Net Exports Forecasts . 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Developed States Risk/Reward Index .. 45
Table: Developed States - Retail Risk/Reward Index . 45
Industry Risk Reward Index .. 47
Rewards .. 47
Risks . 48
Market Overview 50
Retail Formats 50
e-Commerce 51
MGR Formats 53
Consumer Sector Will Underpin Stronger Growth . 54
Competitive Landscape . 55
Integrated Retailers .. 55
Consumer Electronics .. 55
Mass Grocery Retailers 56
Automotive Retailers . 57
Household Retailers . 57
Fashion 57
Pharmacies . 58
Glossary .. 59
Methodology . 67
Industry Forecast Methodology . 67
Sources 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 73

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