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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Core Views

Thriving infrastructure investment in Cameroon will be a significant growth driver in the near future. Furthermore, LNG exports from 2017 will provide the West African nation with an alternative to oil.

Table Of Contents

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................. 5
Core Views.......................................................................................................................................................................................5
Key Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.................................................................................................................. 7
SWOT Analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.......................................................................................................................................... 7
Economic Growth Outlook........................................................................................................................................ 8
Infrastructure And LNG Exports To Bolster Growth Opportunities...........................................................................................8
Thriving infrastructure investment in Cameroon will be a significant growth driver in the near future. Furthermore, LNG exports from
2017 will provide the West African nation with an alternative to oil.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook.................................................................................................................................... 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS......................................................................................................................................................................9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS....................................................................................................................................................9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS.........................................................................................................................................9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..........................................................................................................................................................10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS....................................................................................................................................................................10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook.................................................................................................................. 10
Stable Fiscal Position Despite Higher Expenditure...................................................................................................................10
Despite the significant increase in the public debt burden seen over 2015/2016, Cameroon's fiscal position looks stable over our
long-term outlook. After 2016, strong GDP growth will help weigh on the size of the budget deficit and government debt, while a stable
currency will ensure levels of debt servicing remain manageable.
Structural Fiscal Position........................................................................................................................................ 10
TABLE: FISCAL AND GOVERNMENT DEBT FORECASTS..................................................................................................................................11
External Trade And Investment Outlook................................................................................................................ 12
Currency Stability And Diversification An Advantage To External Position...........................................................................12
Despite recording a significant current account deficit over our long-term forecasts, Cameroon will enjoy a relatively stable external
position, thanks largely to the CFA franc's peg to the euro, and a relatively diverse export base.
Outlook On External Position.................................................................................................................................. 12
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.........................................................................................................................................12
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT FORECASTS.........................................................................................................................................................13
Monetary Policy Framework.................................................................................................................................... 14
Membership of the Communaute Économique et Monetaire de l'Afrique Centrale monetary union will ensure a stable inflationary outlook
for Cameroon over the long term. More important than any policy decisions made by the union's central bank is the guarantee provided
by the French treasury to maintain the value of the local currency.
TABLE: LONG TERM MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS....................................................................................................................................14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast................................................................................................................... 15
The Cameroon Economy To 2025........................................................................................................................... 15
Trend Growth To Remain Strong.................................................................................................................................................15
Economic growth in Cameroon will quicken in 2016 due to strong government consumption and a stable currency, despite a weak oil
outlook. Private consumption, agricultural output, and capital investment will lift real GDP growth to an average of 6.0% between 2016
and 2025..
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS..................................................................................................................................... 15
Chapter 3: Political Outlook................................................................................................................... 17
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 17
BMI Political Risk Index........................................................................................................................................... 17
Domestic Politics..................................................................................................................................................... 18
Cameroon-EU Trade Deal Brings Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks..................................................................................18
Cameroon's signing of a new trade deal with the EU will bring significant short-term benefits, supporting substantial agricultural sector
growth. That said, it is likely to discourage the development of a mature manufacturing sector in the long term.
Long-Term Political Outlook................................................................................................................................... 19
Stability Threatened Both At Home And Abroad........................................................................................................................19
Cameroon's position as an island of relative political stability in a tumultuous region will be tried and tested over the next 10 years, as
the inevitability of regime change comes to bear. The lack of democratic institutions and a hostile neighbourhood will pose the biggest
challenges to Cameroon's long-term political outlook.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk................................................................................................................... 21
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 21
Operational Risk Index............................................................................................................................................ 21
Operational Risk....................................................................................................................................................... 22
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK.................................................................................................................................................................................22
Business Crime........................................................................................................................................................ 23
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO RISK IN CAMEROON...................................................................................................................................24
Government Intervention......................................................................................................................................... 26
TABLE: BUSINESS TAXES.....................................................................................................................................................................................27
TABLE: PERSONAL INCOME TAX.........................................................................................................................................................................28
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook................................................................................................... 31
Global Macro Outlook.............................................................................................................................................. 31
Broad Recovery But Three Notes Of Caution.............................................................................................................................31
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS, 2015-2020...........................................................................................................................................................31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %....................................................................................................................................32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...................................................................................................................................33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.............................................................................................................................................. 35

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