1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Nuclear Energy Market Trends
  5. > Caucasus Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Caucasus Country Risk Report Q1 2016

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

Political tensions in South Caucasus will remain high over the comingyears as increased Russian intervention in Georgia's breakawayterritories fuels concerns that Russia will attempt to annex Abkhaziaand South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani-Armenian relationswill remain strained over the frozen conflict surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.Armenia's economy will continue to struggle during 2015-2016 primarilydue to its trade and remittance flow links with ailing Russia.Beyond this we continue to see little means of diversifying its growthmodel away from one driven by private consumption underpinnedby volatile remittance flows.Georgian real GDP growth will slow over the next two years relativeto the 5.5% average growth achieved between 2010 and 2014 dueto exposure to Russia's economic crisis, which has been triggeredby Western sanctions and magnified by a dramatic fall in global oilprices. We forecast the Russian economy to contract 5.2% in realterms this year.Azerbaijan will continue to tread a fine line between siding with eitherRussia or the EU. Azerbaijan's economic interests can be betterserved by increasing trade and energy routes with the EU, whilemaintaining good relations with Moscow will likely assist in keepingthe autocratic regime of President Ilham Aliyev in power.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised down our forecasts for Armenian headline realGDP growth to 0.5% and 1.9% for 2015 and 2016, from 2.9% and3.2% respectively. This sharp downward revision is primarily due tothe worsening outlook for Armenia's main trading partner, Russia,which we forecast to experience a 5.2% economic contraction during2015.

Table Of Contents

Caucasus Country Risk Report Q1 2016
BMI Index League Tables...9
Core Views.11
Major Forecast Changes...11
Key Risks To Outlook...11
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Armenia.. 13
Domestic Politics 13
Tension To Escalate, But War Will Be Avoided..13
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan will continue to increase over the coming months, with sporadic violence erupting in the
Nagorno-Karabakh region. However, this will not lead to a full-scale conflict, given Russian and Turkish opposition.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.13
Long-Term Political Outlook... 14
Mitigation Of Regional Tensions Key To Stability..14
Armenia will continue to have difficult relations with neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan through the medium term, as a result of sensitive
historical grievances and strong domestic pressure groups on both sides. Nagorno-Karabakh will remain a particular potential flashpoint
given the high profile of the region and ongoing talks, which are set to test commitment to peace in both Yerevan and Baku. The heavy
troop presence on both sides of the border will remain a key risk.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Armenia.. 17
Economic Activity 17
Economic Slowdown Temporary.17
The Armenian economy proved more resilient to the Russian economic slowdown than previously anticipated and we have therefore
revised up our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 1.2% from 0.7% previously. We expect economic growth to accelerate in 2016, as
remittance inflows increase, boosting private consumption.
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..17
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...17
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS..18
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS18
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Armenia. 19
The Armenian Economy To 2024 19
Convergence To Stall...19
Our relatively pessimistic medium-term view on the Armenian economy continues through our long-term forecast to 2024. We believe
the lack of economic and political reforms enacted by the government and the pivot away from the EU will hinder long-term economic
activity, and as such we forecast real GDP growth to average 3.6% between 2018 and 2024.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.19
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Azerbaijan.. 21
Domestic Politics. 21
Baku To Benefit From Iran Deal...21
The signing of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 group will enable Azerbaijan to expand its diplomatic ties with its
southern neighbour. This will allow Baku to enhance its status in the region, although it will do little for Azerbaijan's struggle against
Armenia regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.21
Long-Term Political Outlook... 22
Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh..22
Attempts to win back the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will remain the defining issue of Azerbaijani foreign and domestic policy through
the medium term.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Azerbaijan... 27
Economic Activity ... 27
The Good Days Are Over..27
Hydrocarbon exports will remain the key driver underpinning Azerbaijani growth over the next decade, with positive spillover effects
feeding through private consumption and government spending. As GDP per capita increases over our forecast period, private
consumption will become increasingly important as a motor of economic growth.
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..27
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...27
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS..28
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS28
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Azerbaijan. 29
The Azeri Economy To 2024 29
Trend Growth Bolstered During 2018-202429
Over our 10-year forecast period to 2024, we believe Azerbaijan's economy will remain on a positive trajectory. Undoubtedly, energy
exports will continue to be the key driver underpinning growth. In addition, we expect rising incomes and consumption to help keep
growth buoyed during our forecast horizon.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.29
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Georgia... 31
Domestic Politics. 31
Risk Of Trade Embargo Increasing.31
Tensions between Russia and Georgia will escalate over the coming months, with Russia moving closer to implementing a trade
embargo on its neighbour. This will further increase political risks in Georgia, impeding further the country's economic growth prospects.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.31
Long-Term Political Outlook... 32
Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition.32
We expect tensions between Georgia and Russia to remain frosty over the next 10 years as the Georgian government continues
to attempt deeper integration with the EU and highlight that the potential for social unrest in border areas will remain pronounced,
especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis and Georgia's shift towards the EU and NATO.
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Georgia... 35
Economic Activity ... 35
Sluggish Growth To Continue Amid External Shocks...35
Georgian economic growth will remain sluggish over the coming years as the economy faces considerable external shocks that will
dampen remittance inflows and exports. As a result, we forecast the Georgian economy to expand by 2.8% on average over the next
five years, compared to 5.7% between 2010 and 2014.
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..35
TABLE: GOVERNMENT SPENDING FORECASTS35
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS..36
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS36
Chapter 3.3: 10-Year Forecast - Georgia.. 39
The Georgian Economy To 2024. 39
Foreign Investment To Support Growth..39
Over our 10-year forecast period, we project Georgian growth to remain relatively robust, averaging 3.9% per annum over 2019-2024.
Georgia will continue to rely heavily on foreign direct investment as a key driver of growth over the long run, which will be enhanced by
continued economic and structural reforms.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.39
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 41
Global Outlook.. 41
Global Growth Weak As EMs Squeezed.41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...43

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Amrita

+1 718 303 2019

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Medical Radiation Shielding Market by Products, Solution, End User - Global Forecasts to 2021

Medical Radiation Shielding Market by Products, Solution, End User - Global Forecasts to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

The global medical radiation shielding market is expected to reach USD 1330.0 billion by 2021 from USD 989.2 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 6.1%. The global medical radiation shielding market is broadly ...

Inorganic Scintillators Market by Scintillation Material, Type, & Application - Analysis & Global Forecast to 2021

Inorganic Scintillators Market by Scintillation Material, Type, & Application - Analysis & Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

The inorganic scintillators market is projected to reach USD 330.7 million by 2021 from USD 256.1 million in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.2% in the next five years (2016 to 2021). The inorganic scintillators market ...

Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market by Reactor Type, Strategy, Capacity, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market by Reactor Type, Strategy, Capacity, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“The nuclear decommissioning services market projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2016 to 2021” The nuclear decommissioning services market is projected to reach USD 8.55 billion by 2021, at a ...


ref:plp2015

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.