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Lithuania Country Risk Report Q1 2017

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 37 pages

Core Views

Lithuania's economy will remain below its historic trend as the investment climate in Europe remains weak following the UK's decision to leave the EU. That being said, the country's macroeconomic stability in recent years and strong domestic consumption leave it well-placed to cope with any slowdown in economic activity. Most of Lithuania's main political parties enjoy a degree of consensus on the country's main issues, but future governments will struggle to navigate policy around an increasingly nationalist electorate, an uncertain future for the EU, and tense relations with neighbouring Russia.

Table Of Contents

Lithuania Country Risk Report Q1 2017
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................. 5
Core Views.......................................................................................................................................................................................5
Key Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.................................................................................................................. 7
SWOT Analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.......................................................................................................................................... 7
Economic Growth Outlook........................................................................................................................................ 8
Growth Will Trend Lower On Weaker Investor Appetite..............................................................................................................8
Lithuania's economy will remain below its historic trend as the investment climate in Europe remains weak following the UK's decision
to leave the European Union. That being said, the country's macroeconomic stability in recent years and strong domestic consumption
leave it well-placed to cope with any slowdown in economic activity.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook.................................................................................................................................... 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS......................................................................................................................................................................9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS....................................................................................................................................................9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................................10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..........................................................................................................................................................10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS....................................................................................................................................................................10
Structural Fiscal Position........................................................................................................................................ 10
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE and EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES..................................................................................................................................11
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS...............................................................................................................................................11
Outlook On External Position.................................................................................................................................. 12
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.........................................................................................................................................12
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015......................................................................................................................................................12
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015...........................................................................................................................................................13
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................................13
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast................................................................................................................... 15
The Lithuanian Economy To 2025.......................................................................................................................... 15
Moderate But Stable Growth Ahead............................................................................................................................................15
Although the outlook for the Lithuanian economy over the coming decade is certainly less than inspiring compared to average real GDP
growth of 7.2% between 2004 and 2007, we nonetheless maintain a positive view for the economy over the long term. Indeed, while
growth is unlikely to match the stellar outturns posted in the run-up to the recession, we forecast a more moderate, but sustainable 3.0
%annual average growth rate for 2016-2025.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.....................................................................................................................................15
Chapter 3: Political Outlook................................................................................................................... 17
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 17
BMI Political Risk Index........................................................................................................................................... 17
Long-Term Political Outlook................................................................................................................................... 18
Policy Will Struggle To Navigate Key Challenges......................................................................................................................18
Most of Lithuania's main political parties enjoy a degree of consensus on the country's key issues, but future governments will struggle
to navigate policy around an increasingly nationalist electorate, an uncertain future for the EU, and tense relations with neighbouring
Russia.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk................................................................................................................... 21
SWOT Analysis......................................................................................................................................................... 21
Operational Risk Index............................................................................................................................................ 21
Operational Risk....................................................................................................................................................... 22
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK...................................................................................................................................22
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK..............................................................................................................................................25
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK..........................................................................................................................28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK.....................................................................................................................30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook................................................................................................... 33
Global Macro Outlook.............................................................................................................................................. 33
Broad Recovery But Three Notes Of Caution.............................................................................................................................33
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS, 2015-2020...........................................................................................................................................................33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %....................................................................................................................................34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...................................................................................................................................35
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..............................................................................................................................................37

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