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Background to the report

The Netherlands parcels market has continued to grow in spite of the uncertain recovery from recession but has lagged average European levels for the period from 2009-14. A key factor has been the growth of home shopping.
This has acted as a spur to innovation – in promoting the development of processes to improve the delivery experience, from defined time-slots, to text messages to the establishment of chains of parcel shops.

Home shopping growth looks set to continue, although at a lower rate than elsewhere in Europe, thus creating further opportunities for those companies which are able to deliver the quality and range of services that the market requires.
In this environment, industry consolidation has continued with FedEx making a major play to combine with TNT Express and other major networks continuing to make add-on acquisitions to fill geographical and service gaps. The Dutch market is less concentrated than France and Germany, and the national postal operator, PostNL has a leading share of the parcels market.
Parcels in the Netherlands provides an analytical overview of the Dutch Parcels market. It attempts to portray accurately the market structure, size, growth, trends and competitive landscape.

The report builds upon:
– Apex Insight’s published analysis on other parcels markets across Europe and in adjacent logistics markets
– Our consulting work in the industry which has included advising on market and strategic issues and the attractiveness of parcel company acquisitions

What does the report cover?

The definition of the parcels market includes domestic, intra-European and international parcels. It also includes business-to-business, business-to-consumer and consumer consigned parcels. Parcel weight definitions vary, between operators and countries, but most describe parcels up to various weights approaching 31.5 kg. All service levels are included (time definite and deferred). Adjacent services, such as mail, pallet distribution, groupage, freight forwarding, sameday courier and contract logistics are excluded.

Key trends in the Dutch parcels market include:
– Slow growth in consumer delivery volumes from online shopping
– More mixed performance in business-to-business volumes during the recent period of slow economic growth
– Customer service innovations, in particular those which improve the final mile home delivery process by informing the customer about delivery progress and alternative options.
– Networks of local collection points and secure lockers, also aimed at improving the final mile.
– Variations in operator financial performance and profitability with some operators making healthy margins while others have struggled
– Gradual but ongoing increase in market concentration

What is the methodology?

The main sources for the report are
– Extensive desk research on the parcels market and its operators covering company accounts, websites and other sources
– Published information on key market drivers such as economic data and estimates of home shopping levels and practices
– Interviews with senior-level contacts in the market

The key input to our market size estimates is a bottom-up analysis of the revenues of the parcel companies we have identified as operating in each of the main countries covered. Adjustments have been made to compensate for missing data and to reflect the extent to which these companies are involved in other logistics activities in addition to parcels.

We have used this data as the basis on which to construct our market model.
– The model produces historical and forecast growth estimates covering the period from 2009-2019 which are based on trends in company revenue and drivers such as economic performance and levels and patterns of home shopping.
– The main model inputs and assumptions are discussed in detail in the report.

Who is it useful for?

The report is intended for:
– Owners and operators of parcel networks
– Customers of those networks, in particular, retailers who sell via the internet
– Investors in these businesses
– Market regulators and policymakers
– Banks, analysts, consultants and other parties with interests in the sector

Table Of Contents

Parcels in the Netherlands - Market Insight Report 2015
Introduction 2
Market Characteristics and Trends 10
Market Size and Growth 15
Competitive Landscape 18
Parcels Market Forecast 21
Appendix: List of abbreviations 25

List of figures

1 Online Shopping Patterns by European Country, 2012 and 2013
2 Local Collection Networks
3 Dutch parcels market size and growth / €bn
4 Dutch GDP growth: 2009-14 / annual % change
5 Dutch internet retail sales and growth: 2009-14 / €bn
6 Internet retail as percentage of GDP: Netherlands vs European average
7 Consumer deliveries as a percentage of total parcels volume: Netherlands vs European average in 2013 and 2014
8 B2C segment of the Dutch parcels market: size and growth 2009-14 / €bn
9 Revenue shares of top operators in the Dutch parcels market in 2013 / % of total market
10 Dutch Parcels Market Competitor Analysis, 2011-2013
11 Forecast Dutch GDP growth / annual % change
12 Forecast Dutch Internet retail sales and growth: 2009-19 / €bn
13 Forecast Dutch parcels market size and growth / €bn
14 Forecast B2C segment of the Dutch parcels market: size and growth 2009-19 / €bn

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