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Wealth in Poland: Sizing the Market Opportunity

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Verdict Financial
  • -
  • 39 pages

Summary
Poland is an emerging economy and has a relatively short history of economic freedom and capital markets. As a result, the retail savings and investments market is very much skewed towards deposits. However, the value of onshore liquid assets held by Polish residents has been growing fast. The HNW population remains tiny, but at the same time is growing its wealth at the fastest pace. With their changing preferences and growing interest in offshore investments, Polish billionaires are a lucrative target for private banks and wealth managers.

Key Findings
- Affluent individuals, who account for only 3.2% of the overall population, hold 83.8% of total liquid assets in Poland.

- Similarly to other Central and Eastern European markets, Polish retail savings and investments are allocated mainly to deposits, which comprise 81.8% of the total market.

- Despite historically low interest rates, Polish retail investors have not turned significantly to equities or mutual funds, as since the financial crisis they have tended to avoid risky asset classes.

- Polish HNW individuals allocate around 20% of their portfolios in less liquid investments, showing a strong preference towards property.

- The proportion of the HNW portfolio held offshore has doubled in Poland since 2012. Currently 24% of HNW assets are held abroad, primarily in search of better investment opportunities and tax efficiency.

Synopsis
Verdict Financial's “Wealth in Poland: Sizing the Market Opportunity” analyzes Poland's wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.

Specifically the report:

- Sizes the affluent market (both by the number of individuals and the value of their liquid assets) using our proprietary datasets.

- Analyzes which asset classes are favored by Polish investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.

- Examines HNW clients' attitudes towards non-liquid investments such as property and commodities.

- Identifies key drivers and booking centers for offshore investments.

Reasons To Buy
- Benchmark your share of the Polish wealth market against the current market size.

- Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2019.

- Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in Poland.

- Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how low interest rates and stock market volatility affect HNW clients' preferences.

- Review your offshore strategy by learning HNW motivations for offshore investments and their preferred booking centers.

Table Of Contents

Wealth in Poland: Sizing the Market Opportunity
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Polish wealth market is set to grow at annual rate exceeding 5%
Key findings
Critical success factors
SIZING AND FORECASTING THE POLISH WEALTH MARKET
Affluent individuals in Poland account for 3.2% of the total adult population
A negligible proportion of affluent individuals in Poland are HNW
Polish HNW individuals hold 26.3% of the country's onshore wealth
DRIVERS OF GROWTH IN THE POLISH WEALTH MARKET
The Polish retail savings and investments market will grow steadily
The value of total savings and investments in Poland will increase by more than 5% per year
Deposits account for 81.8% of the Polish savings and investments market
Retail deposits will continue to outperform real GDP
Interest rates in Poland are at a historical low
Equities and mutual fund holdings are driven by stock market performance
The banking sector's problems are having an impact on the Polish stock market
Equities and mutual funds attract new investments only when the WIG performs well
Polish mutual fund holdings are equally divided into different asset classes
Bond investments are an alternative to other asset classes
HNW INVESTMENT PREFERENCES
HNW individuals allocate 20% of their investible assets outside traditional liquid investments
Low interest rates encourage HNW clients to invest in property
Polish HNW individuals have increased their offshore investments
Access to a better range of investments and tax efficiency drive offshore investments in Poland
Polish HNW individuals tend to book their assets in Europe or the US
APPENDIX
Abbreviations and acronyms
Supplementary data
Definitions
Affluent
Domicile
DTA
FATCA
HNW
Liquid assets
Mass affluent
Onshore
Residency
TIEAs
Methodology
2015 Global Wealth Managers Survey
Global Wealth Model methodology
Global Retail Investments Analytics methodology
Exchange rates
Bibliography
Further reading
About Verdict Financial
Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Poland: standard personal tax rates
Table 2: Poland: special personal tax rates
Table 3: Poland: maximum real estate tax rates, 2015
Table 4: Poland: total adult population by asset bands (000s), 2009-15
Table 5: Poland: forecast total adult population by asset band (000s), 2016f-19f
Table 6: Poland: total onshore liquid wealth by asset band ($bn), 2009-15
Table 7: Poland: forecast total onshore liquid wealth by asset band ($bn), 2016f-19f
Table 8: Polish zloty-US dollar exchange rate, December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2015

List of Figures
Figure 1: Affluent individuals account for just over 3.2% of the total adult population in Poland
Figure 2: Affluent individuals hold 83.8% of the total liquid assets in Poland
Figure 3: Annual growth of retail savings and investments in Poland has exceeded 5%
Figure 4: The vast majority of savings in Poland are allocated in deposits
Figure 5: Deposits and mutual funds will drive retail savings growth in Poland
Figure 6: Steady GDP growth in Poland contributes to increased deposit holdings
Figure 7: The Polish stock market is dominated by the financial services sector
Figure 8: Growth in equities and mutual funds is dependent on the WIG's performance
Figure 9: Only 21.9% of Polish mutual fund assets are allocated to equity funds
Figure 10: In Poland, bond holdings are negatively correlated with the stock market
Figure 11: Property investments constitute the bulk of the portfolio held outside traditional asset classes by Polish HNW investors
Figure 12: Polish HNW investors hold almost a quarter of their assets offshore
Figure 13: Polish HNW investors offshore their wealth to access a better range of investment options
Figure 14: Traditional offshore centers and countries with developed capital markets are top offshoring destinations for Polish wealth
Figure 15: The Polish government has signed a number of DTAs and TIEAs

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